One of the problems that has long plagued airlines in their long-haul networks is what to do with their widebody fleet during the winter. Demand across the Atlantic is enormous in summer — and summer demand has extended further into spring and fall — but in winter it’s always a struggle to figure out where to fly those airplanes. This has led to some creative ideas, and most recently, it’s Sapporo that gets a chance to show that it can help fill the void as a winter destination. Both Air Canada and United are taking a swing for this coming winter.
Take a look at the four big North American long-haul airlines and how they’ve used their widebody fleets since the pandemic.
Widebody Block Hours by Airline by Month
Data via Cirium
The utilization spikes in summer as demand to Europe reaches a fever pitch. But then, in winter, it’s a struggle. Yes, the airlines defer maintenance when possible to the off-peak months, so that is helpful in reducing the number of hours available to fly in winter, but it’s not enough. Put this a different way. This past summer, United approached 50,000 block hours to and from Europe in July. That drops to about 30,000 block hours in January. So, where do you put the airplanes?
I’ll stick with United to make my point since it has the most capacity to move, and it has been the most creative. Here’s a look at all the non-Europe markets where widebodies fly for United:
United Widebody Block Hours by Region (excludes Europe)
Data via Cirium
You can see that East Asia is pretty steady year-round, though it has grown overall. The biggest winter bump comes in Australia/New Zealand/South Pacific. The Middle East/India looks like it has a big difference, but that’s just because all service has been suspended since the Iran War started.
The rest of the increase comes from Hawaiʻi, South America, and Africa, but those are relatively small numbers. Overall, this recovers about 10,000 block hours versus the 20,000 that are lost in Europe.
Maybe this isn’t bad since, as mentioned, they do hold back maintenance work for winter, but United has another 3 million-or-so widebodies on order, give or take. It knows where to put them in summer, but winter is tougher. And that’s why opening up new markets is so important. It’s what enables growth throughout the year.
That’s where Sapporo comes in. Air Canada and United will each fly 3x weekly in the market this coming winter from Vancouver and San Francisco respectively. This is a market that’s a stretch, but it’s a calculated stretch.
According to ARC/BSP data via Cirium, this market is not big, but there is something attractive about it.
Continental US/Canada – Sapporo Daily Passengers Each Way by Origin
ARC/BSP Data via Cirium
Origin passengers from Sapporo don’t vary nearly as much, but they do peak in summer and fall. But look at just how much this market has grown from the US/Canada over the last couple years. And when does it peak? It’s winter.
This is a ski market. I’m not a skier, but from what I understand, this is a world-class ski area that attracts people from all over the world. For people to come from the US and Canada, however, they have to have money to burn. This is the perfect kind of market for a K-shaped economy where you’re serving the rich people at the top end of the K.
For United to make this work, it needs to fill those 48 flat beds at the front with high-dollar fares. Air Canada only has 20 seats up front, so it may be a higher hill to climb. But even though they don’t have a joint venture over the Pacific, they have conveniently decided to operate on differing days. Air Canada goes westbound on Monday, Thursday, and Saturday while United goes Wednesday, Friday, and Sunday. So there are options every day but Tuesday for travelers to get more flexibility.
I don’t want to overstate this. This is a relatively small opportunity with 3x weekly flights, but that’ll put one airplane to good use during the cold, dark winter. This is the kind of thinking and experimenting that airlines need to be doing if they want to expand their global fleet.
