We’ve already talked about American’s operational issues, but today I’m looking at you, Delta. American hasn’t been a star performer for ages, but Delta? Delta has been the king for years. That crown appears to have some tarnish on it these days.
You may have heard about the Delta pilots setting up a website to help travelers deal with disruption. This is nothing but a negotiating ploy. The contract becomes amendable later this year, and they are just starting to chirp about it. This won’t help negotiations, but it does attract a lot of media coverage which Delta management certainly doesn’t like. The hope is presumably that this will put pressure on Delta to make concessions to get a deal done. It won’t, and the reality is… I don’t care about this at all.
What I do care about is that this effort is coming from somewhere — the union isn’t making this issue up. Delta does have an operational problem. So today I’ll focus on what has been going on.
In a note from COO Dan Janki in May, the airline indicated it was happy with its on-time performance, but “we need to improve controllable cancels and IROP recovery.” I’m not sure I agree. Oh sure, it does have a problem with cancellations and irregular operations, but on-time performance has suffered as well. While there are several issues that have led to this decline, one of the hot button topics is centered around pilot availability.
A letter from Ryan Gumm, SVP Flight Operations from April, explained that trips that needed coverage saw acceptance rates plummet from 37 percent to two percent. To me, this sounds like an effort to blame labor, so I spoke with Delta’s pilots union chair Eric Criswell to get his side. Eric said they don’t have access to the dataset that Delta referred to in that latter, but he wanted to point out that the number of trips made available has jumped significantly in the last year. You would expect acceptance rates to drop in a bigger pool. From the union’s perspective, staffing is a primary concern in this whole mess.
In 2025, they say pilot demand hours increased 4.2 percent versus last year, but the actual number of pilots employed at the airline fell. Thanks to that, they also said that pilots are working on their days off at a higher rate than in the past. In a recent Chairman’s Letter from the union, it said “the Company is now hiring aggressively to address their self-imposed staffing shortfall.” The airline certainly doesn’t dispute that. It is hiring as we speak, so clearly some pilot modeling went wrong last year.
Regardless of the reason for these issues, Delta is not living up to the carefully-constructed brand image as an operational rock star over the last couple decades. Though as mentioned this isn’t just about cancellations and IROPS, let’s start with those cancellations first. As usual, I turned to Anuvu for the data.
This is where Delta used to excel the most. It almost never canceled flights back in its heyday, but now it is doing that far more often. Instead of looking at aggregate numbers, I thought it more help to compare to the industry.
Delta Completion Factor vs Industry By Month
Data via Anuvu, Industry includes AA/AS/B6/DL/HA/UA/WN
Remember, a good standard is to try to complete 99 percent of flights or better, so if Delta is consistently up by 1 to 2 points on the industry as it was for years? That’s a huge difference. But it has slipped, and this year it has been downright worse than the industry overall in more than one month. Outside of April, it has not been above 99 percent in any single this year.
We’ve talked about why that might be happening, but what about on-time percentage? I don’t like what I see there either. Delta doesn’t seem concerned in its communications, but maybe it shouldn’t be…
Delta A14 % By Month
Data via Anuvu, Industry includes AA/AS/B6/DL/HA/UA/WN
Delta was performing better than industry even until the end of 2024 with just a little hiccup thanks to the Crowdstrike failure at the end of July that year. But then, A14 has continued to trail off. It has rebounded after a pretty bad winter, but it is still below where it has been historically.
One of the big issues here seems to be block time. Delta was known for padding block times to improve performance, and there’s nothing wrong with that as a strategy. It certainly bought the airline massive goodwill. But that seems to have changed, and it just hasn’t given itself the block time it needs to run an on-time airline. Let’s take a look.
Delta B0 % By Month
Data via Anuvu, Industry includes AA/AS/B6/DL/HA/UA/WN
As a reminder, B0 is the percentage of time that a flight operates within the allotted block time. It can run 5 hours late, but if the airline files a schedule that shows gate pushback to gate arrival is 74 minutes and the flight operates in 74 minutes or less? That counts as meeting block time.
In the chart above, you can see a marked fall-off in 2024. Delta must have lowered its block times to try to improve utilization and lower costs, and the result has been performance degradation. It has in some recent months performed worse than the industry overall.
So what is Delta doing? We’ve already talked about pilot hiring which will help bolster the reserves that are needed to cover trips, but the airline is also bulking up in crew scheduling and customer-facing agents so it can better help when things go wrong. It has also been having issues with what it calls “fleet health, so it is working with the maintenance organization to try to fix some of those gaps. There are other moves it can make around the edges as well.
What isn’t clear to me is where Delta wants to be. Is it hoping to get back to the more expensive but more reliable operation it had? Or is it ok being a little lower down the list if it saves the airline some money? Now that Delta has built a brand on operational excellence, it probably has a more complicated decision than others might.
