It’s a Good Time for Delta To Try to Grow — But Not Win — LAX


Delta seems ready to pounce further on Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) in order to grow its relevance, as shown by this week’s start of service to both Chicago/O’Hare and Hong Kong. The ultimate goal is presumably to become the dominant carrier in the market, but as I wrote earlier this week, it is highly unlikely that will actually happen. But that doesn’t mean Delta can’t make further gains. It absolutely can, and now is a good time to make that push.

As the data showed in my last post, Delta has significantly improved its position since the pandemic hit. In 2019, Delta had about 19 percent of domestic local traffic at LAX, but that has since climbed to 23 percent in 2025. It has seen its percentage of departing seats climb by a similar amount.

The building blocks for this actually went into place in May 2017 when Delta moved from its constrained Terminal 5/6 home at LAX to Terminals 2/3. It was going to be a long and painful journey to rebuild Terminal 3, fix Terminal 2, and connect them with the Bradley Terminal where it had some flights (as do partners), but in the end it would mean more gates for Delta.

Here’s a lay of the land so you can follow along as we go.

During the pandemic, Delta decided to shoot the moon. It saw traffic was down significantly, but it knew that created an opportunity. So, Delta accelerated its plans and knocked down/rebuilt Terminal 3 much faster than expected. It began to open in 2022 and was completely open — along with the behind-security connector to Bradley — in 2023. Delta now has 27 gates split between Terminals 2 and 3 (which will soon just be called Terminal 2).

Not only that, but it is now connected behind security to Bradley (which will become the new Terminal 3) where most of its joint venture partners operate. There, it also has its international arrivals — currently 7 or 8 per day — operate along with the flights that turn around to wherever those airplanes are going. It provides a nice overflow valve for the airline.

And that’s that. Delta is never quite fully done, but it has a new, modern terminal that works. It is now adding a new Delta One lounge in Terminal 2, and it will continue to invest. But its total summer operations of up to about 160 daily departures means that Delta can turn about six airplanes per day per gate (which doesn’t even include Bradley gates). There is room to grow in the existing footprint.

So, Delta has been making big gains, but meanwhile the other airlines are hampered from doing the same. First, let’s talk about United.

At this point, United is stuck in a corner at LAX, literally. In 2014, the previous management team at Continental United gave up four gates in Terminal 6, the old Continental gates, to consolidate in Terminals 6 and 7. This was a bad idea.

United has only 20 gates available in Terminals 7 and 8 (soon to all be called Terminal 7). It doesn’t use any gates in the Bradley Terminal, though all of its partners are there, far away from United. It did, however, start using a little space in Terminal 6 again, usually gate 68B for the widebodies. But that is a minor concession to the airline that has expressed interest in growing LAX under this management team. At the recent media day, we were reminded that United wants to be number one in LA. I’m not sure how that happens without more gates.

There was a plan to build a Terminal 9 which would not only allow United’s partners to leave Bradley but also give United more gates itself. That has been shelved indefinitely since the airport can’t justify the project based on current traffic predictions. United is stuck at 20 or 21, and it is not going to get more gates.

The only possible hope is for Alaska to relinquish some of its gates in Terminal 6. That seems unlikely, but then again, there is always a chance it could spill into Terminal 5 gates which are currently common-use. But we’ll talk about that more in a minute.

This brings us to American, which is in the throes of a massive and painful construction project which has left its operation scattered. Terminal 4 is being demolished and rebuilt in phases. So far, only the far end has been reopened with seven gates. There are also two gates in the base of the old terminal that remain in operation while the middle is being rebuilt.

There is also the remote Eagle’s Nest terminal which sits a lengthy bus ride to the east of the main terminal complex. This terminal has nine gate holdrooms that can only accomodate regional aircraft. I’m not sure American is even using all nine, but at least seven or eight are in operation.

As if that’s not enough, American had been operating four or five gates in Terminal 5 as well, but Terminal 5 has now been shuttered. It was demolished and will be rebuilt with 15 gates by 2028, of which American should have 10. In the meantime, American has been using gates in the Bradley terminal, but it is a challenging experience for travelers.

If we add up what American had been using before, it was at 15 (give or take) in Terminal 4, five in Terminal 5, and nine in the Eagle’s Nest for a total of 29. When the new terminals open, American will have 15 in Terminal 4, 10 in Terminal 5, and then presumably it will still use some gates in Bradley. The Eagle’s Nest will go away.

In the end, this doesn’t allow American to be any bigger than Delta. It also doesn’t increase the number of gates American has, though the airline will have more gates capable of supporting bigger airplanes. It will allow American to consolidate its operation in one place that just so happens to be right next to its partner Alaska. This kind of proximity will improve the passenger experience, of course, but it will also improve the ability to offer connections. If American wants to make a run at LAX — not that there has been any serious suggestion of that being the case — it is probably a couple years away.

Previously, Terminal 5 was also the home to JetBlue and Spirit. Spirit is gone, and JetBlue is currently operating in Terminal 1. It may not need to come back. So that means there is probably opportunity in Terminal 5. Could Alaska split its operation, which would allow United to get gates in T6 with its partner Air Canada? Or would United consider using T5 gates with a busing operation?

All we know is that American may have interest in growing LAX, United has a stated interest, and neither can do anything about it right now. You can be sure Delta knows that. There aren’t slots at LAX to constrain competition; that’s what gates do there. And for the next couple of years, Delta has a real advantage which it is going to put to good use. It’s not going to own LAX. Nobody will. But if it can add a few more points to its share then it should be pretty happy.

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Brett Avatar

10 responses to “It’s a Good Time for Delta To Try to Grow — But Not Win — LAX”

  1. GM Avatar
    GM

    Brett

    small typo in the section about UA consolidating, it should be in 8 and 7 not 6 and 7.

  2. Matt D Avatar
    Matt D

    Construction at LAX is NEVER going to be finished, is it?

    Maybe that’s the real reason they took those lighted towers out. Their imagery is no longer appropriate.

    Just like how the orange road cone is the official state flower, a nod to every single freeway and highway in the state, perhaps the construction crane is going to be the icon of LAX to replace the towers, since I’m presuming that they will be there and highly visible for….forever to come.

  3. See_Bee Avatar
    See_Bee

    Can some of the Angelenos on here comment about how they perceive loyalty of locals? It’s my understanding that AA has lingering loyalty at LAX, especially with corporate accounts & Hollywood types, but surely that is starting to fade post-COVID

    I imagine this is similar to how NYC played out over the last ~15 years: AA was clinging on to loyalty in the NYC area but it finally reached a tipping point where DL surged ahead due to various reasons (i.e., AA’s slow deprioritization, DL capacity & facility build-up across JFK & LGA, DL prioritization of stealing corporate share from AA, etc.)

  4. Tim Dunn Avatar
    Tim Dunn

    It is even harder to define “win” than it has to define “dominate” but it is certainly true that, even if just because of facilities at LAX, DL has an opportunity over the next few years that it has never had – and that others can’t match over the next 3-5 years.

    Keep in mind that AA started to pull down its LAX network even before it started rebuilding its facilities so, while the AA crowd wants to believe that AA will become the market share leader again at some point after new facilities open, there is actually pretty little evidence that happens in the US airline industry.
    UA’s terminal situation at LAX is a more significant bottleneck for them esp. because they don’t have access to TBIT as AA and DL do in at least some form.

    The bigger issue is that DL has since stated beyond simply saying it intended to grow LAX that it intends to challenge UA on the Pacific – which is a pretty audacious statement given that DL is half the size of UA TPAC right now.
    The LAX international market is huge and while no carrier has ever succeeded at maintaing a competitvely large size, AA’s most recent attempt had too much focus on China and long S. America flights, the latter of which Latam now does for DL. It is noteworthy that DL and UA now fly LAX-HKG while AA doesn’t even serve the home of one of its founding alliance partners.

    DL already has the largest domestic share at LAX and a west coast hub at SEA that doesn’t really compete for the same California local traffic while UA at SFO relies on LAX as a major feeder market. DL also is the largest US carrier to E. Asia outside of CA and it will certainly build on that with JFK and potentially ATL and BOS and maybe some more DTW flights.

    The biggest factors in DL’s favor are that the KE/OZ merger/acquisition is nearing its end and there will be capacity between KE and OZ that has to be “rationalized” which will create opportunities for DL to add flights on its own metal to ICN, to add new DL metal flights elsewhere in E. Asia that will be part of the JV, and for DL and/or KE to add flights to cities in the US that have no service to E. Asia on any carrier; there will certainly be strong incentives when that starts to become reality and no other alliance will be able to do it.

    DL’s TPAC fleet is almost entirely A350 and the arrival of the A350-1000 in the next six months or so will give DL by far the most capable and efficient TPAC fleet, well suited to compete against Asian airlnes that have lower labor costs.

    and DL’s biggest advantage is financial; they have a strong track record of building hubs using their industry-leading finances. Growth at their other hubs is slowing while results are improving and the refinery is certain to give DL a cost advantage for as long as the Middle East mess keeps going.

    Winning might be hard to define but it is certain that DL will cut UA’s lead over the Pacific in the next few years.

  5. Tim Dunn Avatar
    Tim Dunn

    It is even harder to define “win” than it has to define “dominate” but it is certainly true that, even if just because of facilities at LAX, DL has an opportunity over the next few years that it has never had – and that others can’t match over the next 3-5 years.

    Keep in mind that AA started to pull down its LAX network even before it started rebuilding its facilities so, while the AA crowd wants to. believe that AA will become the market share leader again at some point after new facilities open although that has not often happened in the US airline industry.
    UA’s terminal situation at LAX is a more significant bottleneck for them esp. because they don’t have access to TBIT as AA and DL do in at least some form.

    The bigger issue is that DL has since stated beyond simply saying it intended to grow LAX that it intends to challenge UA on the Pacific – which is a pretty audacious statement given that DL is half the size of UA TPAC right now.
    The LAX international market is huge and while no carrier has ever succeeded at maintaining a competitively large size, AA’s most recent attempt had too much focus on China. It is noteworthy that DL and UA now fly LAX-HKG while AA doesn’t even serve the home of one of its founding alliance partners.

    DL is certain to add some LAX domestic flights and what it lacks are predominantly other airline hubs.

    DL already has the largest domestic share at LAX and a west coast hub at SEA that doesn’t really compete for the same California local traffic while UA at SFO relies on LAX as a major feeder market. DL also is the largest US carrier to E. Asia outside of CA and it will certainly build on that with JFK and potentially ATL and BOS and maybe some more DTW flights.

    The biggest factors in DL’s favor are that the KE/OZ merger/acquisition is nearing its end and there will be capacity between KE and OZ that has to be “rationalized” which will create opportunities for DL to add flights on its own metal to ICN, to add new DL metal flights elsewhere in E. Asia that will be part of the JV, and for DL and/or KE to add flights to cities in the US that have no service to E. Asia on any carrier; there will certainly be strong incentives when that starts to become reality and no other alliance will be able to do it.

    DL’s TPAC fleet is almost entirely A350 and the arrival of the A350-1000 in the next six months or so will give DL by far the most capable and efficient TPAC fleet, well suited to compete against Asian airlnes that have lower labor costs.

    and DL’s biggest advantage is financial; they have a strong track record of building hubs using their industry-leading finances. Growth at their other hubs is slowing while results are improving and the refinery is certain to give DL a cost advantage for as long as the Middle East mess keeps going.

    Winning might be hard to define but it is certain that DL will cut UA’s lead over the Pacific in the next few years.

  6. Bobby Avatar
    Bobby

    Correct me if I’m wrong but 68B is one of 4 gates owned by Air Canada?

  7. Grichard Avatar
    Grichard

    Is there, realistically, any economic value specific to being “#1” in a contested city? This doesn’t seem obvious to me.

    Obviously having a fortress hub gives pricing power. And obviously there are scheduling advantages and economies of scale with bigger operations. But if ABC airline has 250 departure/day, is it any better or worse off if XYZ has 200 vs 300?

  8. SEAN Avatar
    SEAN

    As these terminals increase in gate capacity, how will the numbering system change? The numbering system was simple outside of TBIT, T2 was 20-29 + an extension A, B etc. Can’t imagine renumbering all the gates like JFK did decades ago or going the EWR/ MKE/ PIT route & jus using continuous numbering.

  9. Angry Bob Crandall Avatar
    Angry Bob Crandall

    Why do airlines continue to use recycled ideas (that have always failed) on how to be the 800 pound gorilla at LAX?

  10. SEAN Avatar
    SEAN

    As these terminals increase in gate capacity, how will the numbering system change? The numbering system was simple outside of TBIT, T2 was 20-29 + an extension A, B etc. Can’t imagine renumbering all the gates like JFK did decades ago or going the EWR/ MKE/ PIT route & jus using continuous numbering.

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