‘Tis the season for airline investor days, and Delta kicked things off with a star-studded spectacle this week. Ok, it wasn’t a spectacle, nor was it star-studded, though avgeeks should consider President Glen Hauenstein a star. Anyway, I digress. This year, Delta went with the theme “Differentiated and Durable,” which I think refers to the airline’s general positioning and was not just a description of CEO Ed Bastian’s fancy sneakers.
The whole affair seemed rather backwards-looking, talking about how Delta got to where it is today and how it built itself a defensible position. There wasn’t any real news to break, despite heavy hints previously that we might learn about a Basic Business Class option. Instead, future talk was limited to broad strokes about evolutionary plans.
So what did the airline say? Let’s get into it. You can follow along in the airline’s presentation.
The “differentiated” part of the story goes back to when Delta decided to get away from the commodity business and become a premium airline 15+ years ago. It has unquestionably been very successful in that regard, and it is very happy with its premium focus.
How successful has the premium move been? The easiest number to point at is domestic First Class. Glen explained that in the last 15 years, domestic First Class load factor has remained consistent at 92 percent. But 15 years ago, only 6 percent of seats were filled with paid domestic First Class tickets while another 6 percent came from international premium cabin travelers on domestic connections. The rest were upgraded. Now, upgrades only account for 12 percent. It has flipped.
Delta — and the rest of the industry — learned that pricing domestic First Class really high was useless. It could make far more money by making the upsell premium lower, and that has clearly been proven. But for Delta, it’s more than that. This is about creating stepping stones deeper and deeper into luxury experiences. It’s about investing in consumers when they are young and broke, then reaping the rewards when they are rich and unwilling to tolerate coach.
As Glen described it, they just need to give them a taste. “And what we’ve garnered from all these years of experience with these premium products is once people are flying in them, they tend to not go back.”
Put in greater detail…
It is important for us to supply Main Cabin because Main Cabin is the entry point. If you think about that life cycle, people don’t start in the front. They start in the back. And having best-in-class services in the Main Cabin — having pricepoints that are accessible in the Main Cabin — because that’s where you draw people in.
Of course, it’s not just about buying up to domestic First Class. It’s also about Comfort+, the extra legroom section that’s on every airplane. It’s about the end of single-class regional jets. And it’s about the ever-more-luxurious Delta One business class cabin. It’s all about creating the opportunities to buy up everywhere. Delta has gone from having about 10 percent of seats in the cabin being considered premium to now 30 percent. Just look at this slide.
So there are more premium seats and more affordable stepping stones. There’s also a more premium-minded crowd out there.
Millenials are apparently richer than previous generations were at the same age, and two-thirds of them are willing to “spend on luxury travel.” As the Boomers fall off, the Millenials are rising, and Delta is drooling over the opportunity. (As usual, we Gen Xers are kind of forgotten.)
What makes Delta so sure it can get those premium travelers to stick with it? The airline kept using the term “moats” around what it has invested in that others can’t quickly duplicate. For example, Delta has poured money into airport terminals to get the facilities it needs, and it has added premium seating to its fleet. It has made it more valuable for people to sign up for SkyMiles and get the Amex credit card. That, in turn, keeps them more likely to fly Delta and spend more money on the airline when they do.
This is where it gets into future evolutionary plans. Delta is trying to increase personalization. That can be about recognition and what shows up on the seatback screen, but it’s also about selling customers what they want to buy. This started with the various experience segments as shown below…
Now, Delta wants to further break those down into additional options. Here’s Glen again:
So in 2025, we’re going to try some segmenting, some additional segmenting, in a main cabin. We really already have it with Basic and Main, but do we have kind of a “Best” in that category, which we don’t really have? So if we put a “Best” in that category and then we thought, well, Comfort+, there’s no “Good,” “Better,” “Best” there. Could we start introducing that?
What this means in practice is not clear. Certainly the Delta One business cabin has a “Best” but it doesn’t have a “Good” or a “Hot Garbage” offering. This is where the idea of Basic Business comes in. If people only really care about the flat bed seat and nothing else, could they be offered a lower fare than those who want all the bells and whistles?
At the same time, in coach, could Delta offer a “Best” product that includes access to preferred seating, priority boarding/security, etc? Maybe. Delta is just trying to identify what it is that people want to buy and then find ways to push that offer out to them. It apparently isn’t ready to talk about it any further just yet.
And that was really the crux of the day. Delta is firing on all cylinders and enjoying the fruits of its labor. But looking forward, the airline didn’t give much to grab on to. Delta appears to be very comfortable staying the course that it plotted out long ago. There is something admirable in that kind of stability, but when the competitive landscape changes, airlines need to change as well. I’m not sure Delta is taking that seriously enough.
If I’m United, the only other US network airline really gunning for that premium segment, I’m liking what I’m hearing. Yes, Delta is the leader in the industry, and it has been for some time, but there is room for others to make a dent.
This doesn’t take away from the fact that Delta is the leader and has been able to consistently deliver on its promises. The presentation just left me wondering what’s next.
31 comments on “Delta Spends Investor Day Looking Back, Reveals Little Going Forward”
1. Where was it discussed that some of their most loyal flyers are bailing because of Ed’s MQD changes?
2. Where was it discussed that they have service issues with dispensed product and new FA’s that don’t exhibit the Delta culture?
3. Where was it discussed how Tom Brady is really making flying on Delta so special? :-)
4. Where was it discussed that customer satisfaction isn’t where it was a few years ago?
Yeah, Delta fliers upset with the changes to MQD can defect to one of the other legacies keeping their premier thresholds constant, which would include the following carriers:
Ok, so where we came from, and a wee bit on where we want to go. But there are some issues that can block the road. Sky pesos suck. FF categories are downgraded. So, when will the big shoe drop? You know, the one where the FF programs are so degraded that customers no longer want them or they are just scrapped. Or if coached has sections that are decent, how long before businesses no longer invest in Biz class?
What companies are routinely paying for domestic first for business travel? I’ve had to fly coach my whole career, except in cases where I upgraded using my point balance.
My company would pay for business class for international travel subject to cost restrictions, but domestic business travel within the US is an order of magnitude more common than international from the US.
Some companies may be paying. But I think Delta (and AA) are seeing a lot of success with the ability to self-upgrade (using one’s own money or points) after business purchase. When I worked for a company that restricted to coach domestically, I know I sometimes self-upgraded online on a longer segment where I wanted comfort and the price was right.
Self-upgrade is definitely part of it. Also consider that generally more senior positions in companies have different booking policies than entry level or middle-managers that allow F booking (i.e. VPs, partners at consulting or law firms, etc.)
They removed the human element from many clubs so when there is a problem there isn’t a person. Screw using a bot. I want a human.
And Delta used to be above the rest. No they’ve gone down and others have begun to get a little better.
Nice work Delta on beating up your most loyal flyers with your Medallion changes. I can’t wait for the other shoe to drop in the future
If Tom Brady is helping Delta like he’s helping the Fox broadcast team they’ll be another Frontier in no time!
Glen must have graduated from the Baghdad Bob School of Communications.
“investing in consumers when they are young and broke, then reaping the rewards when they are rich and unwilling to tolerate coach.”
Looks like they’re on to me, except for the rich bit….
Do we even remember why/how Delta became the leader?
Richard Anderson worked for both NWA and DL, so when (after years of rumoured talks) they merged, he was able to cherry pick the best parts of both airlines and create something special.
That advantage is long gone. Many have since left or were pushed out, and the culture left behind is one that has led to the demise of many companies. Remember how Blockbuster was a leader?
Just like Blockbuster, management thought they were invincible, and it blew up in their face in the Crowdstrike disaster. They were the only airline that did not have a contingency plan, something taught in business school and adopted by every major company out there.
Culture eats strategy for breakfast for a reason. New ticket options does nothing to solve that issue.
As a millennial, I assume trying to get me to becomena Delta loyalist for life, hoping I’lll eventually buy first class seats after my boomer parents die and leave me their money, Delta recently decided to gift me six months (from the end of May to the end of November) of Silver Medallian Status.
I’ve never had any Arline Status before, but this year I attempted to get status on Alaska but found out the hard way that the cheapest tickets on Fiji Airlines that I flew to Austalia earn no miles. That trip was in March and I assume AMEX seeing this flight booked on my regular Platinum Card (get the annual fee reimbersed through my parents relationship with Morgan Stanley), made Delta want to try and win me over.
I will say the status did make me more brand loyal to Delta for the 6 months and it was nice to not have to pay checked bag fees. I dont check bags most of the time but had two trips where I took advantage. I know the no checked bag fees on his Delta credit card makes my Boss loyal to Delta on his personal family trips (he only flies a few times a year for buissiness).
I also spent more money on Delta (I’m a once to twice a year to go to a conference or two domestically type of buissiness traveler, the rest of my travel is all personal) this Fall, since getting to sit in Exit Row seats (plus SkyClub access, I’m still mad about the removal of SkyClub access on basic economy tickets, I used to pretty much exclusively buy them) made me spendi the extra ~$30 on my roughly monthly personal flights for the perks.
Reflecting on my 6 one-way trips on Delta – plus 1 on United and 2 on American – over the time frame it was nice to get Comfort plus upgrades on all my CRJ 900 flights out of my home airport in South Bend, plus exit rows on the rest of my flights. My one upgrade to First Class (DTW-SBN) on a CRJ-900 made me honestly wish I hadn’t gotten it, the PBA ginger ale was nice after having to run through the Detriot Airport, but it felt like the padding of the first class seat had completely gone out and I would have been more comfortable on the half-hour flight with a row to myself in the back by the window, as I was also stuck in an asile seat in the full first class cabin.
Will this make me a Delta loyalist? No I have no desire to pick-up their credit card because I don’t want to be brand loyal!
“Over the time frame it was nice to get Comfort plus upgrades”
Ironic thing to mention with Delta since Y+ is a seat choice for all elites (depending on time before flight) on AA and United. Only delta treats it as an upgrade for elites. It’s rather uncompetitive in reality.
Sounds like Delta Two will no longer be an April Fool’s joke :)
I doubt Delta would be willing to drop down to the point of ZipAir’s “lie-flat seat and nothing else” offering, but if they got close to that at a lower price point they have more of a shot of me upgrading.
The “we sell our upgrades now” point rings true. I’ve had decent luck getting Comfort+ but even that isn’t a sure thing, particularly given that I’m uninterested in upgrading from an aisle or window to a middle seat. And I haven’t gotten a loyalty upgrade on anyone.
Just as there’s a market in coach for “more legroom and nothing else”, there’s a market for “more width and nothing else”, at least domestically. I’ve used Spirit’s “Big Front Seat” a few times and, for me at least, it was excellent value for money. I’d rather pay a price just for the space (and getting off the plane faster) and buy food in the airport (or just eat before the flight) than fly domestic first class, have a mediocre meal, and pay a huge amount of money for a few drinks and faster exit at the end of the flight.
Yep. I bid up to a BFS AUS-LAX last year and it was worth every penny. The new bundle that disallows buying/bidding just the seat, not so much.
Likewise I’ll pay a premium to be on a plane with no middle seat, even in Economy. So A330s (outer sections) rather than 787s, or E-Jets rather than mainline. Or A220s, though I still haven’t flown somewhere they could take me in a comparable amount of travel time to other options, and I’m not paying a premium just for a longer route unless an A380 is involved.
Cranky,
What was that “special” announcement that was supposed to happen when the IT outage hit? Maybe another raising of MQD requirements? Also, how can Delta’s Board of Directors not see how this is negatively affecting their image and customer base!
Arthur – I’m not sure I know. There was supposed to be a special announcement? I somehow missed this, I guess.
It was probably just their reupholstered seat announcement that they announced last month.
What I find so interesting about the trend to buy domestic first class tickets is that 5-10 years ago it wasn’t too much more than economy (a few hundred dollars more). Yet people did not do it often. The FC cabin was often filled up with FF’s.
Fast forward to today, and first class is much more expensive compared to economy yet there is much more demand today to do so. Still trying to figure this one out.
Cranky – I don’t know if I buy the theory that millennials have more money today than previous generations. Cost of living is way up (including housing). I think spending habits are the reason. Millennials are more likely to spend money on experiences and less likely to save.
Eric – I can’t claim to know how they calculated all of this, but that’s at least what Delta is pushing. But I do think spending habits and what they value is real. More people are willing to spend for luxury, but that’s just a general observation from me and not based in fact.
I think the answer is, people didn’t realize it at the time.
If you go back 20-25 years ago, domestic F was expensive — like 5-10x as much as coach.
Airlines started to lower the prices maybe 10-15 years ago, but for a long time they didn’t do a great job of helping customers realize that. A ton of work has gone into all of the “upsell” opportunities — showing you first class side-by-side with coach when you do a standard search on airline websites, and making it easy to buy up to first from the seat map after you purchase. That has helped people realize the pricing is more attainable than they might have thought, and encouraged more people to buy it.
Interesting presentation, although a lot of is just marketing babble (what is “secular growth?”), misleading – the household wealth chart on page 13 doesn’t appear to be inflation-adjusted, or just painfully obvious (yes, high-income travelers account for most air travel…because they have income to spend on things other than necessities.) And relatively few passengers even know what “A0” is, much less take it into account when choosing an airline. Unless you’re connecting, leisure travelers aren’t that sensitive to A0 versus A15 or even A30.
The CFO’s part was very impressive. Delta has an outstanding balance sheet, solid margin growth, and a plan for fleet rationalization.
But at the end of it all, I have to agree with Brett – after I read it I didn’t come away with a solid idea of where they’re going from here. How many more “choices” can you give customers, especially in coach? And more choices runs counter to the “simplifying the purchase process” idea on page 28. It seems to amount to “finding ways to charge passengers more for what they get now” for the most part.
The average customer may not be sensitive to A0 but corporate travel departments are and that’s who Delta is selling to.
Delta remains the strongest airline financially in the US, but much is from better management vs UA and AA (the former not true anymore – the latter still true). With limited product differentiation, delays in new seats and planes, and entrenched hubs, I think we will see the competitive edge continue to diminish.
There are some interesting growth opps for Delta like more A350s for long-hauls and Austin. However, the A350 is too much plane for secondary destinations – it can open routes to India and perhaps some Africa, but outside of that it’s hard to see new routes outside international hubs (more ICN, CDG, AMS). Austin is also not competitive against Houston or Dallas, and Southwest still exists there so it’s a long-term play.
On the flipside, SEA will become more competitive as Alaska adds international routes. SEA-TPE had a 50% LF for Delta (lowest of the 4) in Sept. London also performs poorly, but now what happens if Alaska competes to Europe and Asia with more domestic feed and loyalty than Delta in Seattle?
LAX is also interesting as AA continues to get gates back – United leads here internationally while Delta does domestically, but AA will have the most gates by ’28 unless they decide to give some up (they’ve said they will not). As they’ve been limited by construction since ’19 (unlike Delta which finished by ~’22) and operating at ~50-60%, there will be more competition Delta cannot match in kind b/c it’s almost tapped. How does that look?
The A321XLRs that will populate EWR, JFK, and other markets (e.g., Boston for Iberia and Aer Lingus) will be interesting to watch as well. AA has struggled to compete vs Delta H2H outside hubs, LATAM, and Athens from NYC, but what if they can get you to a destination nonstop that Delta cannot? UA will have a wider international breadth of locations than anyone else w/ that plane. JetBlue is retrenching and focusing on Boston so there may be more defense Delta will have to play there.
All that to say, I see more downsides to Delta’s financial performance vs UA and AA than upside. UA is definitely on the right path to catch up and become the 1B to Delta’s 1A, but as AA, B6, and WN get a bit better by fixing low hanging fruit, it’s hard to see where Delta grows equally to maintain the gap.
Regarding the cabin segmentation: How would Delta work that into an A319? Maybe two rows per segment?
Patrick – I don’t think they’re talking about hard product changes here.
This would just make it so some things are included and others are not.
It’s like Basic Economy. The seat is the same. It’s just what’s attached to your ticket.
Delta’s rise was indeed impressive – I went from refusing the fly them in 2004-05 due to terrible service issues to acknowledging they were doing the best domestic service in the U.S. by ~2017 or so. The way they integrated Northwest, from both a branding and operational standpoint (compared, say, to the annoyances of the UA/CO merger and the US/AA merger), remains very impressive.
Yet, in the past year, my own flying experiences would suggest something has changed. They’ve had a couple of big operational meltdowns. The app functions poorly (especially compared to UA). And what I once most appreciated about them — the consistency of the experience — has slipped, with a sense it’s getting worse (as opposed to UA, which still has inconsistencies, but seems to be getting better). Clubs are full and unpleasant, even if the food is (marginally) better than United. ATL is crowded, unpleasant, and getting broken (lots of gate areas with non-functional plugs, etc.). And, as an example, here were recent on-board experiences:
LIM-ATL: ex-LATAM A350 (sub-standard seats); no menus (oops, they didn’t get boarded); limited wine selection (“in Peru, the wines often get stolen”)
DAB-ATL: ex-LionAir 737; no closet for coats (“put it in the bin”), non-functional IFE (with stickers apologizing for it), no cabin dividers, old overhead bins, etc. Rude FA; first class drinks served in plastic.
Connection in ATL: unpleasant club experience (too busy, dirty, zero agent interaction), crazy crowded terminal, unpleasant gate experience (broken plugs, crowded, dirty)
ATL-ORD: old 737, old overhead bins, first class drinks served in plastic.
I laughed and said “premium” to myself, comparing this to recent UA and AA experiences with:
-AA: Consistently large overhead bins on every 737, and the same product on every 737
-AA and UA: first class drinks served in glassware on every segment, including short ones, at least on mainline
-AA and UA: pleasant club experiences with plenty of seating and easy access to charging, pleasant agent welcoming me on arrival
And I also thought: in entering the UA and AA clubs (with my credit cards), I didn’t have to think about “should I use one of my club passes on this?,” underscoring how I now feel ripped off by the annual fee on the Delta Reserve.
You gotta keep earning the reputation. If you don’t, at some point it crumbles.
What’s next? Nothing new, that’s for sure. Which might actually be the right answer for them.
Extremely interesting is that first class flip over 15 years. When I was a 100K mile per year traveler I cared about status for three things… Upgrades, upgrades and upgrades.
Now I would never get an upgrade so why would I bother worrying about status? Why would I have any loyalty to an airline unless I was forced into it by living in a fortress hub? It certainly isn’t to earn more of their frequently devalued and increasingly useless “points” which aren’t even miles anymore. Shorter check in lines used to be a consideration but no longer because nearly everything is done online. For the vast majority of frequent travelers, airline status is a thing of the past.
We Gen Xers aren’t mentioned because given how much we dislike other people, it’s well known that we will pay for more space.
Yep, low tier elite on a legacy is enough for a free checked bag or two and a shorter check-in line at airports where that matters (looking at you, LAX). Oh, and extra legroom seating consistently available if you get a non-Basic ticket. Diminishing returns after that though, hence my being happy to flex card spend around to hit DL Silver and not care after that.
AS MVP 75K inflight chocolate is kinda nice, as is Y+ at booking (including on AA), but not enough to get me to pick a connecting flight over a nonstop, so I’vw enjoyed the status match while it’s lasted and next year I’ll only have status on one airline unless Frontier throws enough darts at points on the map I care about that I get their credit card too.
Ed doesn’t want low-tier elites. We are worthless to him and Tom Brady. He killed my loyalty. And others