Delta has decided to add a new route from Los Angeles, and it’s not one you might have expected to see. Next April, the airline will begin twice daily flights from LAX to Newark. Yes, that’s right… Delta will fly to the home of one of the most special HoJo’s still in existence. Oh, and it’s also United’s big hub. While I don’t expect this route to be financially successful, that doesn’t mean it isn’t worth it for Delta to fly.

Delta will operate twice daily on the following schedule:

• LAX 7:40am Newark 4:15pm
• LAX 9:25pm Newark 6:00am (next day)

• Newark 7:30am LAX 11:05am
• Newark 5:25pm LAX 9:00pm

All flights will be on the A321neo, and no, these aren’t the fancy ones with a million temporary First Class seats awaiting flat beds. These are in the standard configuration with 20 domestic First Class seats, 60 in Delta Comfort+, and 114 in coach.

Newark, if you aren’t aware, lies about 30 road miles to the west of New York’s JFK airport. JFK, of course, is a big Delta hub, and Delta already flies from there to LAX 11 times a day in the current spring schedule. So… why?

Well, you don’t read this blog unless you know something about this industry, so you probably already have your suspicions. Plenty of others who write about this have already speculated this is a warning shot aimed at United. United, after all, flies LAX to Newark 11 times a day, but other than a brief stint during the pandemic, it hasn’t flown LAX to JFK since 2015 when it left. Now, however, United has its growing Blue Sky partnership with JetBlue, and it plans to get back into the LAX – JFK market soon enough.

So, sure, Delta may very well be sending United a message that it should stay on its own side of the Hudson, but I’m not convinced that this is the entire reason. I don’t even believe this is the primary reason. It may very well just be a fun side effect.

I recently wrote about how now is a good time for Delta to try to make gains in LA. And the reality is that Newark is a big market from LAX. Without being asked, Delta sent out an email with this quote from Scott Santoro, the airline’s VP of Los Angeles and Sales-West.

Los Angeles plays a central role in Delta’s network, and this new nonstop service to Newark reflects our commitment to connecting customers across key business markets. From our state-of-the-art Terminal 3 at LAX to our industry-leading Delta Sky Clubs and the Delta One Lounge, we’re continuing to invest in a premium, seamless travel experience. By offering twice-daily flights on our Airbus A321neo, we’re delivering more choice, comfort and reliable connectivity between the East and West Coasts.

There’s a lot of fluff in there, but it does confirm — as you would assume — that this is about Los Angeles and not New York or Newark. It also says that this is about connecting customers in key business markets.

A lot of people on the West Coast think of Newark and JFK as both being gateways into Manhattan, but it’s more complicated than that. That is definitely the case, don’t get me wrong. But they also have their own catchment areas in the other direction. For Newark, that involves the vast northern New Jersey market.

We don’t need to do a full analysis, but just look at this map. There are 12 New Jersey-based Fortune 500 companies that would use Newark as their primary airport. There’s no chance they’re all driving over to JFK. They’re flying United.

^{Map via Claude}

Does the addition of two new flights on Delta to LAX change that reality? Absolutely not. But what about those Delta loyalists who need to go do business with these and all sorts of other companies? This will serve those people. It makes it easier for Angelenos to give all of their business to Delta.

Just look at the this chart we put in Cranky Network Weekly this past week:

Delta recently started serving Chicago from LAX. Now it has Newark. That means it serves all the top 20 destination airports from LAX except for Philly which is much further down the list… for now.

Of course, Chicago is different in that Delta doesn’t fly to any other airport in the region nonstop from LAX today. With Newark, it already has JFK. A lot of those people flying to Newark now are just going to New York but prefer (mostly) United. Delta won’t recapture that traffic. But it does let Delta woo those who fly to Newark because they need to be in New Jersey. I’m not sure how big that market is compared to the total Newark market, but it’s probably bigger than Philly.

This is what I assume is the primary justification for starting up this flight. That being said, do I think it’s going to make Delta money? I suppose it’s hard to say without having visibility into Delta’s corporate contracts. If this enables Delta to score a commitment from a big account and pull it away from United, well, it’ll probably pay for itself. Most likely this is not going to make Delta money directly, but it is the kind of investment that helps Delta to position itself.