It’s not really a special thing when Breeze announces new routes, because it does that all the time. But occasionally I like to check in and see exactly what the airline is doing. Its big announcement this week shows Breeze is still focused on picking up opportunities that other airlines mostly won’t be interested in.
This week we learned about the launch of 11 new routes starting between late September and early January:
- Atlantic City: Vero Beach
- Baltimore: Burlington (VT), Vero Beach
- Dayton: Fort Lauderdale, Fort Myers, Raleigh/Durham
- Madison: Fort Myers
- Provo: Raleigh/Durham
- Trenton: Charleston (SC), Fort Myers, Vero Beach
If you think it looks like someone threw darts to pick these routes, well, that’s because that’s exactly how it looks. But that is also how every Breeze announcement appears. That being said, there is always some method to the madness. And in this case, I can make some guesses about what’s happening.
This time around, the airline will launch three new cities: Baltimore, Dayton, and Trenton, also known by scholars of contemporary American history as “completely unrelated cities.” I guess that’s not entirely true. You could look at all of these as secondary airports, but they are still rather different from each other.
Baltimore, of course, is a big airport that serves the biggish city of Baltimore. It just so happens that it is also a secondary airport for Washington, DC… and a huge Southwest base. These routes to Burlington and Vero Beach seem carefully chosen. After all, Southwest doesn’t serve either of those airports at all, so the risk of Southwest entering is low.
The bustling Baltimore – Burlington corridor hasn’t been served since 2008 when AirTran gave it a go. It lasted 16 months. BWI may serve as a secondary airport to Washington, DC but in this case it’s not about that since American and United both fly it 3-4 times a day from National and Dulles respectively. Perhaps those who just really want a cheap seat will make the drive, but I’d imagine this is more for Marylanders who are looking to do some fall leaf peeping and winter skiing. Perhaps more importantly, Burlington just applied for a Small Community Air Service Development Program (SCASDP) to support Breeze service to Myrtle Beach or Savannah. Maybe this is a thank you note for trying.
Vero Beach is a different story. Breeze already serves the route twice weekly from Dulles and has since 2024. It doubles that to four weekly this fall. But Breeze also flies to Vero Beach from eight airports before today’s announcement. Now it’ll be up to 11 with the addition of not only Baltimore but also Trenton and Atlantic City. (You aren’t the only one who would like to see the crowd boarding those flights.)
Vero Beach has been Breeze’s market to discover. Until last December when JetBlue started one daily to both Boston and New York/JFK, no other airline was in the market. Then starting in February of this year, American began a daily flight to Charlotte and will fly weekly from Philly in the upcoming winter. This just looks like a rare untapped Florida market that Breeze realized works, especially on its smaller aircraft. It will keep growing until things stop working.
Dayton is not getting Vero Beach service, but it will be getting a duo of sun destinations along with service to Breeze’s growing Raleigh/Durham base. This is actually an interesting market. AirTran used to love it for being close to Cincinnati… but also cheap. Southwest inherited that but eventually moved its operation to Cincinnati. To this day, Delta only serves Atlanta. Nobody serves Florida except for Allegiant which has surprisingly limited operations with a couple weekly flights during peak season to Orlando/Sanford, Punta Gorda, and St Petersburg along with Myrtle Beach in summer. I assume that Allegiant’s base in Cincinnati makes Dayton an afterthought.
With that, it certainly seems sensible that Dayton would be a decent opportunity for Breeze. And Breeze is willing to do more. Dayton applied for a SCASDP grant of its own to help fund the start of a flight to Vegas on Breeze. Maybe this is another thank you note… but it’s still a move I like.
Trenton, however, is possibly the most interesting of all. This is Frontier territory and has been for years. The only other airline in the market is Allegiant which just entered this year with a couple weekly flights to Fort Lauderdale, Orlando/Sanford, Punta Gorda, and St Pete. But the reason Allegiant probably felt comfortable moving in is because Frontier has scaled way back.
Looking back as recently as 2024, Frontier flew to eight cities with more than eight daily flights during peak season. This past winter, however, it only flew to Orlando and Tampa except for a handful of spring break-only flights to other spots. That is a big drawdown, which I assume we can attribute to Frontier’s ever-growing gauge. That leaves some markets behind. And when that happens, Breeze sees an opportunity with its smaller airplanes. Frontier hasn’t filed its winter schedules yet for next year, but Breeze doesn’t seem concerned. Then again, it’s not even trying to fly routes that Frontier would likely fly anyway.
Breeze continues to be a very unique airline. It’s hard to believe that these are all markets with opportunities for profit, but we don’t have the most current data on the airline. We do know that it seems to be getting closer and closer (you know, excluding the fuel cost run-up). And with these three new cities, Breeze is up to more than 85 airports systemwide. To put it into perspective, that’s almost as many as Frontier, though Breeze’s frequency tends to be about half what Frontier flies in a city.
All I can do know is root for a rumored IPO for Breeze to come sooner rather than later. Then we’ll get some real financials to sink our teeth into and find out just how well this airline is doing.
