Allegiant to Buy Sun Country and I’m Not Sure Why

Jan 12, 2026

More Reading on This Topic: Allegiant, Mergers/Finance, Sun Country

It was just another peaceful Sunday until the press release crossed the wire. Allegiant has decided to buy Sun Country, and unless it’s just about growing for growth’s sake, I find myself struggling to understand why. So, come take a stroll with me as I go down this path trying to reason through this one.

Allegiant will be the acquiring airline and the surviving carrier with two-thirds of the combined company while Sun Country shareholders will have one-third. Allegiant CEO Greg Anderson and President BJ Neal will remain in their roles. Sun Country CEO Jude Bricker will split his time between being on the board and counting his money.

In the nine months ending September 2025, Allegiant generated $1.95 billion in revenue with a fleet at the end of the quarter of 82 A320s, 29 A319s, and 10 B737-MAX8 200s. Sun Country pushed out $846 million in revenue with a fleet of 50 B737NG passenger aircraft (five of which were leased out) and 20 cargo B737NG airplanes flying for Amazon during the same period.

Let’s get the easy part out of the way. I can absolutely see why Sun Country likes this plan. Allegiant will pay a 20 percent premium over Sun Country’s current share price, and that’s after the stock’s recent run-up. Sun Country walks away feeling pretty good about itself. CEO Jude Bricker told us regarding mergers on The Air Show podcast back in September:

[Sun Country is] mostly a spectator, because we have a very different business with high margins. So it’d be a challenge, I think, for us to participate, but it certainly makes sense. And I’m pro-consolidation, but it’s clearly an administrative backdrop that is constructive. The low-cost space is struggling. They’re looking for catalysts. I don’t know what else it’s going to take to get airlines together.

Well, apparently he got a good offer, and now he can participate. Good for him.

Where I’m struggling is understanding what Allegiant will be getting out of this. We have two airlines with two, shall we say, adjacent models. Both airlines love the idea of getting aircraft for cheap. Allegiant used to only want used, previous-generation aircraft like Sun Country — Jude Bricker, after all, came from Allegiant — but it has changed its tune with its Boeing 737 MAX order. Still, both airlines can utilize their fleets sparingly to only fly when demand exists. That’s a far cry from Frontier and Spirit which have high aircraft costs and have a strong incentive to fly them hard to spread out costs.

Allegiant originally had the model of connecting smaller cities to large destination bases less-than-daily. This is the flagship Las Vegas and Florida model which brings people in from places that have limited or no other service. Over the years, Allegiant has grown into smaller bases like Asheville, Knoxville, Nashville, and any other “ville” you can think of. It still focuses on connecting cities with no nonstop service today, but it’s not always tiny origin to massive destination anymore.

Sun Country, meanwhile, is all about Minneapolis/St Paul when it comes to scheduled service. It operates there thanks to Delta’s generosity and willingness to not kill the airline. Other than some summer DFW flying, it has very few routes that do not touch MSP.

Both airlines have robust charter operations, though Sun Country also has the added bonus of a 20-strong fleet that flies cargo for Amazon.

With this different network strategy, there’s no reason for me to bother showing you a route map. They have quite literally… ONE overlapping route. Both airlines fly Appleton (WI) to Fort Myers in the winter. Allegiant has already started for the season, but Sun Country won’t begin until late January. Both will be done by May. There is no other overlap. If there’s one thing that doesn’t concern me, it’s the ability to get regulatory approval for this deal.

But what exactly is it that Allegiant will be gaining here? That’s where things get pretty thin. Let’s take a walk over to the merger website which has been titled “Soaring for Leisure.” Is it required that merger websites have the most corny names possible? Anyway, there are six “significant benefits” lined up:

Complementary footprint: Well yes, it does by nature expand the footprint of the airline, but 1+1 does not necessarily equal three just because you get bigger.
Seasonal scheduling agility: The airlines can now match capacity to demand during the peaks… but I think both airlines have the same winter/spring break peak so….
Dynamic route planning: Sun Country can quickly adjust its schedule already, so I guess Allegiant wants to be able to do that better and doesn’t want to invest in the tech to enable it?
Diversified operations: Cargo can, yes, help make money when scheduled service doesn’t… but it’s not like this creates agility with planes moving between those operations. It may indeed create a more stable revenue stream, but I’m not sure how much that matters for Allegiant.
Point-to-point efficiency: The idea is to connect more places to more popular leisure destinations, but Sun Country only really helps with that from MSP, and it already has it pretty well-covered. Maybe this is about things like MSP – Asheville which Sun Country tried and jettisoned. It would seem like a natural under Allegiant.
Fleet flexibility: I guess adding a new fleet, the B737NGs, to Allegiant’s current fleet might do something. It gets back to the old strategy of having older airplanes that are cheap. But again I don’t know why you need Sun Country to do that.

In addition to this, Sun Country does fly internationally while Allegiant does not. So this could be very Southwest-AirTranesque… if you can’t build it yourself, just buy it to give you the push you need.

When you add this all up, what does Allegiant really get? First, it gets an MSP hub and hopes that Delta is comfortable with this change in ownership. Delta-willing, it gets the ability to sell a lot more credit cards in the region too. Of course, if Delta isn’t willing… well, that is very bad news.

Allegiant gets a tech upgrade apparently, and it picks up some more used airplanes. Oh, and it does get a 20-plane deal with Amazon to carry packages around. Let’s not forgot, it also gets itself a substantially richer pilot contract from the Sun Country side. I can’t imagine that’s great news. It’s going to be an interesting labor integration.

Perhaps more than anything, with the acquisition of Sun Country, Allegiant just gets… more. Maybe this will help the airline to get more credit card sign-ups or more loyalty in general thanks to the added heft. I just have trouble seeing how that’s the case. But I am also commenting on this earlier than I should.

There is a call scheduled for shortly after this post goes live to talk about it more, and maybe there will be some revelation about how this is going to do such great things. Undoubtedly if that’s the case, I will have plenty more to write on this story. Congratulations to Sun Country on doing this deal. As for Allegiant… congratulations? We’ll see how this plays out.

Brett

45 responses to “Allegiant to Buy Sun Country and I’m Not Sure Why”

Brian

Jan 12, 2026 at 4:02 am

The reason Delta allows Sun Country to exist, and will also allow the merged Allegiant to exist, is because those two airlines are going after the low hanging fruit. Delta positions itself, rightly so, as a premium airline. They attract and serve two distinctly different customer bases. If Delta could fill its aircraft with corporate travelers and higher paying VFR traffic, they are more than happy to let Allegiant/Sun Country haul around people who fly once or twice a year on $39 fares two days a week. Yes, fares can and often are much higher on Sun Country and Allegiant, but that is not the point. Delta is much more likely to focus its competitive attention on Southwest as it tries to transition itself to more of a “traditional” airline i.e. assigned seats and extra legroom.

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1. Kilroy
  
  Jan 12, 2026 at 4:38 am
  
  I’m not familiar with the MSP market, and (with no disrespect intended to Sun Country) unless you do leisure travel touching Minneapolis-St Paul or are an avgeek, you probably don’t even know that Sun Country exists. That’s not a bad thing; it seems to operate with under the radar and rarely makes national headlines.
  
  However, I can buy the argument that for DL it’s much better to have one main (presumably far more rational/predictable) ULCC in MSP picking up the low yield scraps that DL (mostly) doesn’t want, as opposed to having several ULCCs that could more aggressively compete with each other and occasionally nibble on DL’s tails a bit more…
  
  On that note, it will be interesting to see what impact Spirit’s financial troubles have in the DTW and FLL/MIA metro areas, in terms of fares and how other airlines react as the story evolves, especially if Spirit succumbs and goes completely out of business. I don’t wish bad news upon anyone, but regardless of how it turns out, the subject should make for a good retrospective Cranky post in (say) 9-24 months from now.
  
  Reply
  1. southbay flier
    
    Jan 12, 2026 at 8:59 am
    
    Current events notwithstanding, the Twin Cities are quite nice (Minnesota nice?). Whenever I fly there, I get the right to give Delta and arm and a leg to fly on an A220 from my home airport. I would say the area is actually desirable if you can deal with the brutal winters and there are is a lot of industry located and headquartered there. United Healthcare, 3M (Minnesota Mining and Manufacturing), Target are among the companies in the Twin Cities.
    
    I figured Sun Country actually does quite well in the winter when people who don’t want to give Delta and arm and a leg want to go somewhere warmer since those winters are really brutal. I think there will always be a place for an ULCC there.
    
    Reply
  2. Chris
    
    Jan 12, 2026 at 9:21 am
    
    It’s laughable to me that anybody would consider non union Delta a premium airline. It’s a joke.
    
    Reply
2. JT8D
  
  Jan 12, 2026 at 5:07 am
  
  It’s a mistake for Allegiant to voluntarily expose itself to Delta like this. A key part of G4’s business model over time staying away from competition and this is them voluntarily reversing that.
  
  Sun County’s MSP exposure limits what Sun Country can do, because if they anger DL, DL can always lower the boom at MSP and make their life difficult. I always figured that the first thing Jude would do at MSP is GTFO of MSP because this is such a fundamental weakness.
  
  There’s no franchise value to Sun Country the way there is at G4. I’d pay a lot more for a dollar of G4 earnings than I would a dollar of SY earnings. However reliable the G4 dollar is, SY’s a far less so.
  
  This whole thing is just pure downside for G4. I don’t get this at all. I kind of understand it from Jude’s standpoint. He gets bought out, he can go onto the next thing (I’m sure he’s got a few lined up).
  
  Reply
Abcdefg

Jan 12, 2026 at 4:07 am

An airline which does some distribution via traditional channels and international so it doesn’t have to build that out?

An airline that does some connecting traffic so it doesn’t have to build that out?

Scale to get more credit card sign ups?

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Matt D

Jan 12, 2026 at 4:20 am

I stopped reading when you said you are a fan of consolidation. And I just have to ask two questions. One, why? And two, are you (and I mean no rudeness or disrespect when I say this), but are you nucking futs?

I didn’t even bother reading past that.

We need MORE airlines and MORE competition, not less.

But in all fairness, I think it depends on what side of the aisle you sit on.

If you’re an executive and/or shareholder, of course you’re all for less competition (the reason almost all mergers occur in the first place) which means an easier job and the ability to raise fares. Not to mention eliminate jobs. And of course a one-time big payday. I guess that’s better than rolling the dice on ongoing, smaller ones. The whole “bird in hand” thing.

And please…knock it off with “synergy”. That is the most bullshit word in the business world. We all know it. Never happens. That word is, in business, what “literally” is to Social Media and “67” to kids and teenagers.

There’s almost never anything good in it for employees or customers. What’s to like about fewer choices and higher fares? And of course the elimination of “underperforming” markets. Euphemism for opportunistic “because-we-can” cost cutting.

Not sure why employees would like this. Doesn’t that mean everyone at SY will lose their seniority.

Which brings me full circle. Some people will say things like “it will secure their jobs” and “better than the airline going under completely”.

To which I say “ahhh….so you ARE a proponent of protectionism, not true Free Markets”. Hand picking winners and losers.

One aspect of many which has completely corrupted and rotted the entirety of business in America in recent years and decades.

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1. Luuk van Erp
  
  Jan 12, 2026 at 4:42 am
  
  It was a quote from Sun Country CEO Jude Bricker saying that he’s pro-consolidation. I’m Dutch and don’t speak English as a first language (or second) and was able to figure that out.
  
  Reply
  1. Matt D
    
    Jan 12, 2026 at 5:17 am
    
    You’re right. I re-read that and those were his words, not Bretts. So I stand corrected.
    
    Although Brett HAS repeatedly stated a similar sentiment. So my comment is still relevant.
    
    Reply
    1. EasyMoney
      
      Jan 12, 2026 at 8:12 am
      
      Ok, I’ll feed the troll. Mergers among smaller airlines allow them to remain viable. If the big three decide they want to hub an airport, it’s very difficult for a smaller incumbent to squeeze them out. JetBlue was once the largest airline at JFK and BOS; now it’s Delta. What if JetBlue had been allowed to merge with NK or continue the NEA? Would they still be in an annual $600M hole? Meanwhile Delta can afford to throw a dozen widebody routes at BOS without blinking. What if Alaska-Hawaiian had been blocked? As demand for premium international travel grows, would Alaska be able to defend SEA or keep relying on its oneworld partners?
      
      There are definitely cases where mergers have negative outcomes for consumers and prices, not denying that. I’m generally pretty pro-regulation. But allowing healthy mergers is one of the easiest ways to stimulate long-term competition.
      
      Reply
2. Emil D
  
  Jan 12, 2026 at 5:10 am
  
  Matt D., you must be fun at parties.
  
  Reply
  1. Matt D
    
    Jan 12, 2026 at 5:19 am
    
    The generic comeback. Usually the type someone hurls when they otherwise don’t have one with any substance.
    
    I rarely get invited to parties, which is fine with me since I’m generally not a fan of social gatherings in general simply because I’m both introverted and most people annoy me.
    
    Reply
  2. JT8D
    
    Jan 12, 2026 at 5:26 am
    
    ? I’m not sure I agree with Matt, but I’d have more respect for you if you engaged with even one of his points. If you believe they’re wrong, shouldn’t be hard for you to knock at least one of them down.
    
    Reply
    1. Emil D
      
      Jan 12, 2026 at 6:56 am
      
      Those weren’t viable points, they were rants directed at Brett
      
      Reply
3. SEAN
  
  Jan 12, 2026 at 5:22 am
  
  The concept of “the free market” is disingenuous at best & outright fraudulent at worst. It is obvious once you here the same buzzwords being thrown around regardless of industry or context.
  
  Reply
  1. Matt D
    
    Jan 12, 2026 at 5:41 am
    
    Agreed. While I’m generally a proponent of pure free markets, that’s not what we have.
    
    Could you imagine the uproar from the supposedly “pro” business people there would be if we tried to take things like collusion, manipulation, cronyism, nepotism, insider trading, and protectionism out of the picture?
    
    THOSE are the things I’m against and what have rotted our economy to the core. Actual, fair, transparent, and honest business and competition however, I absolutely love and support.
    
    Reply
    1. SEAN
      
      Jan 12, 2026 at 6:33 am
      
      Matt,
      
      To prove your point, one needs to look at two recent moments in history & neither are airline related… the 2008 banking crisis & the Game Stop stock run up thanks to Robin Hood/ Wall Street bets.
      
      In the case of the former, the banks knew what ever reckless moves they made would be backstopped by the public via congress as they own most of the members. In the case of the latter, when Steve Cohen & other billionaires were shorting Game Stop people with inside knowledge bought up the stock squeezing them. When word got out of what occurred, these wise guys were screaming for intervention to their connected friends & received it.
      
      Meanwhile the financial press referred to those causing the squeeze in the first place as “dumb money” as they couldn’t except the fact they were outplayed by the average guy for a change.
      
      Reply
      1. Matt D
        
        Jan 12, 2026 at 7:18 am
        
        Agreed. GM *SHOULD* have been allowed to liquidate and a new maker or two could’ve risen from the ashes. Or sold the pieces to Honda or Toyota, like we’ve sold out everything else in the country.
        
        Unlike most Americans, the Asians actually know how to run business for the long term without having solely a myopic focus just on the next quarter. Americans think 30 days out. The Asians think 30 YEARS out. Also they tend to be much more proactive than reactive. Also, why so many American business seems to be perpetually playing catch up and chasing its tail.
        
        The GM business model of bloat and efficiency was beyond obsolete and non-viable.
        
        And that not a single…single executive or trader ever went to prison over 2008?
        
        Those two things alone pretty much solidified views I was at the time starting to form.
        
        But we’re straying a bit off topic here. So I’ll reign it in.
        
        Reply
4. See_Bee
  
  Jan 12, 2026 at 6:02 am
  
  For those unaware, Matt D loves to come troll on merger discussions, so take his comments with a grain of salt
  
  When adjusted for inflation, the real price of airfare continues to be one of the great stories for the American consumer, all despite M&A activity. Additionally, now that airlines have healthier balance sheets due to consolidation, they can re-invest in themselves in improved IT infrastructure, proactive maintenance, hard & soft product, etc,
  
  You can educate yourself more on how airfare remains a great deal here: https://www.travelandleisure.com/airlines-airports/history-of-flight-costs
  
  Reply
  1. Matt D
    
    Jan 12, 2026 at 6:25 am
    
    Deregulation, which I wholeheartedly supported, was responsible for that. Not sound business practices.
    
    But now that’s become something of a Gordian Knot. Left unchecked, we’ve seen what happens when restrictions are lifted and human nature is allowed to take over. See the list of things I wrote in a previous reply.
    
    So the paradox is: to keep people and business honest, the answer very well could be more and more and more regulations and oversight. Not less of it.
    
    Talk about a “pick your poison”/”lesser of two evils” dilemma. I’m not a big fan of government by any stretch of the imagination. But I’m equally opposed to corporatism as well. Almost like “free markets” and “big government” are mutually exclusive. When one is lifted, the other gets out of control.
    
    Back and forth the pendulum swings…….
    
    And I’m not (intentionally) trying to troll anything. Just introduce some talking points that often get ignored.
    
    Reply
    1. See_Bee
      
      Jan 12, 2026 at 6:35 am
      
      Deregulation was almost 50 years ago. It’s silly to claim that’s what’s still driving that benefit
      
      Here’s another example to continue to educate yourself. You can take a even more recent snapshot of the last 30 years and continue to see the consumer benefits: https://www.bts.gov/newsroom/2024-annual-average-domestic-air-fare-decreases-2023?utm_source=chatgpt.com
      
      Reply
      1. Matt D
        
        Jan 12, 2026 at 6:55 am
        
        Deregulation was the machination that set that fare differential in motion. That it was almost half a century ago is a red herring. It’s still relevant. Specifically for that reason, which you yourself brought up.
        
        There is no need for the veiled and commonly used insult of “educate yourself” here. I am aware of the what’s, where’s, and how’s the consumer has and hasn’t benefited here. And with the economy in general, not just air travel.
        
        Reply
        
        See_Bee
        
        Jan 12, 2026 at 7:16 am
        
        Direct quotes from you above:
        
        “If you’re an executive and/or shareholder, of course you’re all for less competition (the reason almost all mergers occur in the first place) which means an easier job and the ability to raise fares.”
        
        “There’s almost never anything good in it for employees or customers. What’s to like about fewer choices and higher fares?”
        
        You made baseless claims. I am trying present facts so you can learn and stop sharing incorrect statements. Consumers have benefited, so please stop with higher fares nonsense
pianokeys

Jan 12, 2026 at 4:26 am

The clearest sign yet that these types of airlines are unlikely to thrive or be profitable, or even survive in a harshly competitive climate that will be dominated by the Big 5 (AA, DL, UA, WN, AS). Frontier, Spirit, JetBlue, Allegiant, and Sun Country don’t have much of a future as independent airlines. Their pilots and planes are worth more than their slots and anything else. Look for further consolidation, particularly as a deep US recession hits in late 2026 given the out of control government spending, looming debt crisis.

Reply
1. Matt D
  
  Jan 12, 2026 at 6:17 am
  
  …and AI, which will prove to be disastrous in the sense that it will either directly or indirectly be responsible for untold millions of people being thrown out of work. We are already seeing this happen almost daily.
  
  And then there’s everything you just said, which will just pile on top of that too.
  
  Barring a miraculous turnaround, the back half of the 2020’s here in America do not look to be shaping up well. And the 2030’s being a repeat of the 1930’s is a very real possibility.
  
  Reply
Paper Boarding Pass

Jan 12, 2026 at 4:34 am

You touched on it in the article, but I feel the attitude of the current administration is a BIG factor.
Trump only has three years left, so the window of opportunity (ie: merger & acquisitions) is drawing faster than you think!! Don’t be surprised if other M&A are announce before the window closes. No guarantee Vance or Rubio will get elected. Also, Trump is distracted by oil (Venezuela & Iran); Greenland (possible NATO fight); and hotel development (Gaza Strip) making a merger easier to pass.
Mid-terms are right around the corner and the Democrats are gunning hard to regain control of either the House or Senate and generally oppose mergers. If in doubt, think back to the JetBlue – Spirit merger that got shot down by the Biden administration.
Now is the time to be a M&A attorney!!

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1. JT8D
  
  Jan 12, 2026 at 5:01 am
  
  These airlines compete hardly at all. There’s no reason at all for a government, if we had one, to get involved.
  
  Reply
  1. Bill from DC
    
    Jan 12, 2026 at 5:19 am
    
    I agree. This is the kind of merger that would be approved by a Sanders / Mamdani administration. Zero effect on competition.
    
    Reply
    1. Paper Boarding Pass
      
      Jan 12, 2026 at 5:53 am
      
      @JT8D & @Bill
      Beg to disagree.
      The attorney general of any state LOVES to file a suit just to make themselves look tough and up their chance of re-election.
      It’s the US Attorney General who has the most influence in any airline merger since the airlines are under Federal review.
      
      Also, as I alluded to, look for other airline M&A action while the window is open.
      In fact, look for other industry M&A while the wind is blowing in the right direction.
      No guarantee Vance or Rubio will be elected President.
      Prepare your M&A PowerPoint presentation now!!
      
      Reply
JT8D

Jan 12, 2026 at 5:00 am

What you’re seeing here is Allegiant no longer confident it has a way forward. If Allegiant saw a lot of growth within its existing business, it would go forward with that. And the person who must be most convinced of that is Maury Gallagher, because I don’t think this deal gets done without him being in favor. Maury was also convinced of the hotel strategy (I don’t think he originated it). My guess is that has informed his thinking.

To some extent, I suspect the same is true of Jude Bricker and whoever is backing him. If he saw an exciting solo future for Sun Country, he’d be pushing for it. Pretty clear indication he thinks he’s squeezed what he can out of Sun Country.

In this respect (though obviously the airlines involved are otherwise quite different) but I’m reminded of Southwest buying AirTran back in the day. That was an indication that Southwest didn’t see much runway left, the fact that their best idea was buying AirTran.

This is a massive, massive mistake. There is, in fact, growth available to Allegiant, in fact, in some ways, they’re better suited to take advantage of that growth than any other airline.

These airlines don’t compete hardly at all, so I don’t see much reason for govt (even if we had one) to get involved.

This merger pure downside. Integration issues up the wazoo. It’s a fantastic day for Breeze, maybe even a reason for people at Avelo to edge back a little from the edge.

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Mark

Jan 12, 2026 at 5:05 am

Anticipation of Spirit/Frontier merger and the ability to scale and compete more effectively through fleet size, distribution & international?

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Mr Eric

Jan 12, 2026 at 5:12 am

I think the reason behind Allegiant’s decision is simple. Allegiant’s current business model is tapped out.

They have no choice but expand beyond their current model. I think Sun Country gives them the keys to that next phase….everything from international to cargo.

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JT8D

Jan 12, 2026 at 5:13 am

Sun Country has three businesses and what they have in common is all of them depend on the kindness of strangers:

* Amazon – you dance to Amazon’s tune.
* Charters – zero barriers to entry. However good a job Sun Country does, they have no ability to stop any other carrier from coming into this.
* MSP scheduled business – DL can make their life miserable any time it wants.

Franchise value… hard to discern. Not very much.

It’s astonishing that Allegiant would pay anything for this. Good for Jude, this is the best day in his life.

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Bill from DC

Jan 12, 2026 at 5:34 am

I disagree with the negativity about the merger. In this case there is value to 1+1 even if it only equals 2.

The smallest competitors are the most likely to get poached and are most subject to economic and other global downturns. The additional “heft” gives them more flexibility and staying power.

There are a few minor advantages. Don’t underestimate the ability for Allegiant to immediately go international especially because the Viva JV looks less likely by the day. Plenty of Allegiant bases could very quickly see multiple flights to Mexico, the Caribbean and Central America. And MSP gives G4 an extremely solid base. And they have very similar business models.

I’m thinking this 1+1 is a modest win, call it 2.2. Surprisingly, with the myriad 2026 M&A related predictions, 11 days into the year we already had one nobody predicted!

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1. JT8D
  
  Jan 12, 2026 at 5:43 am
  
  Mergers are hard. What stood out from the Delta+Northwest merger was how well it was executed, Richard Anderson is really one of the best airline executives there ever was that he was able to make that work (a lot of it has to do with him knowing Northwest really well, but he’s also just a very smart guy).
  
  By contrast, most of the other mergers were kind of disasters. Worked in the long run, but a lot of pain and suffering in the meantime. A very big reason to doubt the efficacy of a Frontier+Spirit merger is those places clearly have managments that can barely handle what they have on their plate at the moment, let alone take on a merger challenge as well.
  
  Suspect much the same is true of Allegiant. They’ll be in merger hell for years and I could see them taking their eye off the ball and losing charters and/or Amazon along the way.
  
  Besides, the real issue is what you think the alternative is. If Allegiant really sees little organic growth – ruh roh. I personally, see a ton of it for them, but they’d need to change their focus slightly to obtain it.
  
  But this is basically both Allegiant and Sun Country saying “we see little growth ahead”. And that ought to concern everyone.
  
  Reply
John G

Jan 12, 2026 at 5:56 am

I think G4 is anticipating coming changes and consolidation in ULCC airlines. Most of us think Spirit is going to fail.

Avelo may or may not make it.

Sun Country was a weird operation. Outside of taking cold Minnesotans to warm places in the winter, they are a small point to point airline without a real point to exist.

I think Allegiant is taking the chance to get bigger and block other ULCCs from grabbing Sun Country. It’s less about operation or efficiency, and more about setting themselves up to compete better as the ULCCs consolidate.

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1. Matt D
  
  Jan 12, 2026 at 7:41 am
  
  You mean like how American bought AirCal way back in around 1987? They didn’t really want or need it. But the “wisdom” of the time, which apparently still lives on is “but I better get it before someone else does”.
  
  The same mentality that drives “Black Friday” madness.
  
  Reply
See_Bee

Jan 12, 2026 at 6:07 am

Sun Country benefited from a symbiotic relationship with DL in MSP and niche loyalty from Midwesterners. Both of those feel like they would be in jeopardy of losing through conversion to Allegiant. I’m not saying the merger is a bad idea, but hopefully the CombineCo revenue plan doesn’t count of maintaining both of those…

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HT

Jan 12, 2026 at 6:11 am

This is clearly about developing enough cash reserves to repurchase Sunseeker.

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Angy Bob Crandall

Jan 12, 2026 at 6:59 am

I am at. loss for words. really! There have been 31 posts so far and not one has mentioned how great Delta is compared to the rest of the herd.

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Karen

Jan 12, 2026 at 7:31 am

Quick question.

Everyone is saying Delta could shut down Sun Country in Minneapolis anytime it wants. Why isn’t Delta shutting down Southwest and Frontier in Atlanta? Is it because they are being nice?

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1. JT8D
  
  Jan 12, 2026 at 8:04 am
  
  Have you seen the evolution of Southwest in Atlanta since it took over AirTran? Southwest is now way smaller in Atlanta than was AirTran. So DL has, in fact, crushed Southwest over time. And this is Southwest, which is infinitely stronger, financially, than Sun Country.
  
  Southwest has a reason for being in Atlanta still – but it relates to its strength at the other end of its routes. So, for instance, if it flies to ATL from Dallas, Southwest has a lot of Southwest-partisans in Dallas who will fill up those flights. etc. Sun Country, by comparison, has no other source of strength.
  
  As to Frontier in ATL – early days. We’ll see whether it works or not. But Frontier’s profitability is pretty poor and my guess is ATL is not an exception to that. My view is there are better ideas for Frontier than ATL, but I’m not on their payroll, nor on Bill Franke’s speed dial.
  
  Reply
  1. See_Bee
    
    Jan 12, 2026 at 8:40 am
    
    DL’s upgauging strategy is best exemplified in ATL. Their unit costs are super low, so they can effectively compete at almost any price point, which kills WN & others’ momentum. F9 & NK skim off the absolute cheapest fares
    
    Someone can keep me honest, but I don’t think Sun Country’s RASM is quite as dilutive as F9 or NK. There’s a thought that if DL squashed Sun Country, NK or F9 would move in to fill the vacuum and be a worse situation for DL to deal with long term
    
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DesertGhost

Jan 12, 2026 at 8:49 am

Maybe, as is suggested in the article, this merger is little more than a quick and easy way to acquire assets on the cheap.

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southbay flier

Jan 12, 2026 at 9:04 am

When I saw this merger on Bluesky from Jon Ostrower, I was surprised because the two airlines have opposite strategies.

If I recall correctly, Sun Country has the MLS charter flying contract. I guess that won’t change either.

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