It is official. One of the last meaningful routes in the world that required a connection due to distance will be getting nonstop service starting in October 2027. Qantas has announced that is when the Sydney – London flight will begin on the Airbus A350-1000ULR. Tickets go on sale in February. This will mark the first time a route over 10,000 miles has been flown nonstop on a regular scheduled basis, and while it should work, it feels like more of a gamble than Qantas would like everyone to believe.

Why announce this so far in advance? Well, Qantas is looking to get any press it can as the journey toward launching this aircraft continues. It just rolled out the first A350-1000ULR in the Qantas livery in Toulouse, so why not make a big deal out of it? The airplane itself looks like any other A350-1000 on the outside. It just has room for a lot more fuel and a lot fewer passengers onboard.

How many passengers? Look at it this way. The premium-heavy British Airways puts 331 seats on its A350-1000s, Qatar has 327 seats in its less dense version, and Cathay Pacific puts 334 seats onboard. Qantas will have a mere 238 seats on the airplane. That combined with the extra fuel onboard means it can fly for a very, very long time. And that’s exactly what it will have to do to get from Sydney to London.

Let’s put it this way. The longest flight in the world today is on a Singapore A350-900ULR from New York/JFK to Singapore. That flight is 9,537 miles and is blocked westbound at 19 hours and 15 minutes. The Sydney – London flight is over 1,000 miles further at 10,573 miles. Block times haven’t been released yet, but it will easily break the 20 hour barrier.

The rationale for having only 238 seats onboard is pretty simple. Nobody in their right mind will want to do this flight in coach, so it is very premium-heavy, at least by Australian standards. The plan is to have six First Class suites, 52 Business Class suites for the less fortunate, 40 Premium Economy seats for those willing to endure pain, and 140 Economy seats for your worst enemies. At least those seats will have 34 inches of pitch in the back, but they will also come with complimentary horse tranquilizers to make the journey more pleasant. With the airplane flying 3-3-3 abreast, I’m told those in the middle of the middle will receive a signed certificate upon arrival proving they completed the journey.

We can joke about the onboard experience all we want, but the business case is real. The general thesis is that people care a lot about saving up to four hours over the stops that are required today. Not only will Qantas recapture share, but it will also get higher-paying travelers. There is certainly something to that argument, but whether it will be justified to fly those planes with 238 seats for so many hours is still a question mark.

Qantas does have research to back up its claims. In February, it asked people “how likely would you be to book this type of flight in the future, if you were flying to [INSERT DESTINATION]?” I’m guessing this was for both New York and London since it’s meant to get answers to ultra-long-haul demand. And the answers?

Well, I don’t know. Because all Qantas says in its presentation is that 68 percent of premium travelers and 53 percent of coach travelers would… be likely, I guess? I’m assuming they asked people to pick a number between 1 and 10 on how likely they’d be and this percentage is of those who chose the top end of the scale, but that isn’t clear.

What is clear is that after the war in the Middle East broke out and people were stranded, they became even more likely to fly nonstop. Those numbers rose to 80 percent and 63 percent respectively in May, but I don’t believe that bump one bit. The war is still fresh. Give people a convenient connection with a cheap fare and they’ll shift back to how they felt in February, especially if it’s a connection not in the Middle East. It’s not like there is a shortage of options.

Today, the Middle East is a big connecting point, but so is Southeast Asia. Let’s not forget the good number of people flying Qantas direct via Perth as well. Here’s a look at Cirium ARC/BSP data showing the passenger breakdown by connection point over time.

Sydney – London Passenger Share by Connecting Point

^{ARC/BSP data via Cirium}

Things had shifted recently thanks to the war in Iran, but I’m sure that will get back to where it was. This has been a relatively stable market in terms of connecting point, especially when you consider seasonality.

So, will this work? We will find out. It’s not like there isn’t precedent. Singapore has done well with its less dense A350-900ULRs going ultra-long-haul. And these markets are enormous. During peak northern winter, London has more than 800 daily passengers each way. To London, Qantas captures less than 25 percent of the market today — less than 20 percent during peak northern winter — so there is plenty of room to shift share with a nonstop. There is also presumably room to charge a premium, though what people say is not always the same as what they do in practice.

In the end, this will probably work, but I’m not as confident as Qantas is externally. Then again, worst case if it doesn’t pan out, the airline can use those huge fuel tanks to just shuttle fuel OVER the Strait of Hormuz as an aerial tanker. That’s a guaranteed money-maker.