I’ve written a couple of times about BermudAir, but I’ve never been overly impressed with the airline’s prospects to make something of itself. But now, well, now I may be rethinking this. In a massive change in operating structure, the airline announced an innovative new expansion which will open up service to Belize, Grand Cayman, and Turks and Caicos (Providenciales) along with the existing operations in Anguilla and, of course, Bermuda. This is a fascinating pivot that could… maybe… actually work.

As I said in the title, the plan is to go with a more Allegiant-style operation while also taking full advantage of regulatory tailwinds that it gets from being a Bermudian carrier with British benefits. This also includes some “direct” flying, meaning not nonstop but no plane change, which has long been Southwest’s hallmark.

I’m assuming we have none other than John Pepper, the airline’s new Chief Commercial Officer, for this shift. John spent a decade at Allegiant, most recently as VP of Corporate Development and Government Affairs. If this doesn’t have his fingerprints on it, I don’t know what does.

Let’s start with a look at the route map, which I’ve color-coded by Caribbean base.

^{BermudAir Route Map generated by the Great Circle Mapper® – copyright © Karl L. Swartz.}

Bermuda was always there as the main base of operations, and then the airline expanded under the AnguillAir name to Anguilla this past winter. This new flying is all BermudAir, no cutesy renaming required. Bermuda has grown in this schedule, primarily in Florida, but that’s the most minor part of the change.

Florida is worth calling out in its own right. This is where the Allegiant-style model really shows up. The airline is moving flights from Orlando’s main airport to Sanford (SFB), an airport currently almost entirely served only by Allegiant. It will also enter St Pete (PIE) and not Tampa. Why? SFB and PIE are cheaper and easier to use. But unlike for Allegiant, there is another benefit. Unlike most flying in Orlando and Tampa Bay, this is focused on the origin traveler, some of whom might find the new airport more attractive. It will also go back into Fort Lauderdale, but that just happens to be the best option that exists for South Florida.

As is typical for an Allegiant-style model, nearly all of these markets lack direct head-to-head competition. I think the only competition is:

• Bermuda: Boston (JetBlue), Newark (United)
• Turks: Boston (American/Delta/JetBlue), Newark (United)

In true Allegiant style, these routes all fly very infrequently. Nothing will operate more than 4x weekly with most at 1 or 2x weekly. That is actually lower than what Allegiant would normally do, so that’s where the Southwest emulation makes some sense commercially. The airline is going to try to scoop up additional traffic using direct flights where you stop but don’t change planes.

In some cases, this is meant to increase service levels. For example, you want to fly from Newark to Anguilla in January? There’s a nonstop on Mondays and Fridays, but there is also a flight on Saturday that stops in Turks before continuing on. You have to stop to get from New York to Anguilla on any other airline anyway, so this is still competitive. Hell, there’s even a two-stop option on Thursdays with a wild Newark – BWI – Turks – Anguilla run. I assume that is more about getting people from BWI to Turks, but, well, if you really need it, the option exists.

I think that example above shows how some direct options are good while others seem downright strange, but there is likely more than one reason. That Newark – BWI run could be an aircraft routing issue. It looks like BermudAir will park an airplane overnight in Newark every night of the week, and one will sit there all day on Tuesday (in the January schedule). Nothing stays overnight at BWI, so this helps get the airplane in the right place at night. It also opens up an opportunity to give people in Newark more frequency while creating the possibility of getting some BWI-based traffic to help fill that airplane in a way Newark may not be able to do alone.

There are two routes that seem the oddest of all. There is a 2x weekly flight from Bermuda to Turks that goes on to Grand Cayman along with 2x weekly Bermuda – Boston – Belize – Guatemala City run. Those are the only flights the airline has to Grand Cayman and Guatemala City.

Nobody flies Boston to Guatemala City, so maybe there’s the real opportunity there. And could there be some high-dollar financial shuttle between Bermuda and the Caymans? Maybe. But by serving those airports through another city, it should enable connections from multiple flights. I still don’t love it, but it’s so minor in scope and impact that it may be worth a shot.

You’re probably waiting for me to get to the regulatory part which is the most interesting of all. Bermuda is British. It has its own aviation authority, but it has access to certain British markets that might not be as easily attainable for others. That’s where Anguilla comes in, and the same goes for Turks. Both are British overseas territories. The Caymans are British too, and Belize was British. It’s now independent.

This little footnote explains how Belize will work:

Service to Belize will be operated under fifth freedom operations with flights originating in Bermuda or Turks and Caicos.

So, BermudAir doesn’t have the right to fly between the US and Belize independently, but it does have fifth freedom rights. That means if its service starts in its home British territories, it can then fly to Belize and on to the US, selling tickets in the local market on all legs.

Think about it this way. There are 2x weekly Bermuda – Boston – Belize and 1-2x weekly Bermuda – Orlando/Sanford – Belize flights. There are also 3x weekly Turks – Fort Lauderdale – Belize, 2x weekly Turks – Raleigh/Durham – Belize, and 2x weekly Turks – St Pete – Belize. Nobody is flying from Turks to Belize, but a lot of people are flying from RDU to both Turks and Belize. Fifth freedom makes this all possible.

To summarize, this is a very complex operation that can take advantage of its home and regulation in Bermuda to serve unique markets that may have enough demand to fill an Embraer 190. On the other hand, maybe not. But it is clever enough that I actually like the idea and want to see how it plays out.

I still think that the real key for BermudAir to work is to get some interline deals and frequent flier partnerships with other airlines. Maybe someone should give Allegiant a call.