Let’s tackle the third leg of this tripod with a look at Delta’s positioning in its hubs. United has made big gains, American has been trying to get back some of what it lost, and Delta… well, Delta just keeps on truckin’. Yes, it has made gains in some areas where it needed to make gains, but elsewhere it’s been largely a matter of preventing erosion. Let’s take a tour of the hubs, but first, my usual disclaimer in this series:
To do this work, I pulled annual passenger share for United and the next largest airlines using the Department of Transportation’s Origin & Destination Survey data (DB1B/C) via Cirium. This looked only for passengers that weren’t connecting through the hub. The problem with this, however, is that the data that’s public is only domestic. So, I’ll present that here and then talk how international would likely change the results.
Again, we’ll go in alphabetical order, and that means starting with the biggest hub of ’em all, Atlanta.
Atlanta Local Passenger Share by Year
Data via Cirium
I find Atlanta fascinating. It’s obviously Delta’s biggest and most important hub, but the airline has not seen any real significant shift in local share at all over the last few years. It’s really just smaller airlines shifting share between each other while Delta continues to do its thing.
Southwest has pulled down Atlanta significantly, shifting resources to Nashville. So of course, you do see that decline in the numbers. But Frontier is now on the cusp of being Atlanta’s number two airline as it has grown dramatically there. Delta is just doing Delta things.
Next up, I’m going to cheat a little. This isn’t a hub for Delta, but it’s a growing focus city, so I threw it in anyway. Hello, Austin.
Austin Local Passenger Share by Year
Data via Cirium
With American having built a hub post-pandemic, it’s easy to overlook that the number one airline in Austin is and always will be Southwest. Southwest has actually strengthened its position in the market since the pandemic. But Delta has slowly and strategically built up Austin to become the number two airline. It has designs on more growth when Austin finally gets new gates in a few years, and I expect it will cement its position then. But it is highly unlikely we’ll ever see Delta become number one in this market.
That is the opposite of what has happened in Boston.
Boston Local Passenger Share by Year
Data via Cirium
This was JetBlue’s one dominant market, but after years of mismanagement by the previous management team, Delta surged ahead and became the easy number one. It certainly didn’t hurt that American also failed to defend its historical position. International certainly has an impact here as well, but it’s not in the way you think. JetBlue actually has more international than Delta, so it narrows the gap again. But Delta is still number one, it’s just busy fighting a resurgent JetBlue in the market.
That couldn’t be further from what’s happening in Detroit.
Detroit Local Passenger Share by Year
Data via Cirium
There is nothing to talk about in Detroit. Spirit is number two, but it’s a declining number two and Delta continues to do Delta things there. But this is Detroit, nobody else is trying to win there. That’s different than our next chart, one you’ve seen before.
Yes, that’s right, for the third time we’ll look at the LA Basin since all three big airlines hub there. There’s not much else I can say here.
Los Angeles Basin Local Passenger Share by Year
Data via Cirium
At LAX, Delta has become the number one airline, but we aren’t just talking about LAX. We’re still talking about the LA Basin, and Southwest’s dominance at the other airports can’t be overcome. But when you look at LAX, it really is a three-horse race, and they are all quite similar. But Delta does come out on top for now.
Let’s flip back to the frozen tundra of the upper Midwest.
Minneapolis/St Paul Local Passenger Share by Year
Data via Cirium
Does this look a lot like Detroit to you? Of course it does, because it’s the same setup. Delta is the dominant airline by far, but it allows Sun Country to survive as the leisure carrier who can soak up all the unwanted traffic. It looks almost exactly the same as Detroit, and it’s a model that works well for Delta.
That’s not the case in New York which, yes, we have to look at for the third time as well.
New York City Local Passenger Share by Year
Data via Cirium
As mentioned in the United post, Delta and United are neck and neck once you include international, since United is more international-heavy. This is a fight between those two, and there won’t be a winner unless something major changes. Of course, since United has eyes on both American and JetBlue, there could in theory be a major change. But even if there was, divestment would be likely. So, just consider this a victory for both Delta and United at this point, and then… stay tuned.
Let’s head back west and look at Delta’s hub in not Denver Salt Lake City.
Salt Lake City Local Passenger Share by Year
Data via Cirium
Wait, does this look a lot like Detroit and Minneapolis? Yes it does, because well, it works. This is the secret to Delta’s success. A massive dominance and coexistence with a much lesser competitor creates a base of fantastic hub dominance. Nobody else has this kind of stability.
Where isn’t Delta a stable number one? How about Seattle, our final hub.
Seattle/Tacoma Local Passenger Share by Year
Data via Cirium
This is like Boston if JetBlue hadn’t completely dropped the ball. Ok, that’s not true. Seattle is its own animal where Alaska is beloved, and the airline has fought aggressively to maintain its position. Not only has it maintained, but it has grown. It’s Delta that sits way down there in second place.
You can slice this however you’d like, but Delta is nothing compared to Alaska. And with Alaska’s planned growth into long-haul now happening, the gap isn’t going to close soon. Seattle to me is the oddest of oddballs in the Delta network. Even as a Pacific hub, it gets bypassed with Delta recently adding Hong Kong from LAX instead. I don’t get why Delta continues this fight, quite honestly. But it continues.
For Delta, the secret is having these dominant hubs where it can make a killing. It then invests that into trying to win in contested hubs. It has made remarkable strides over many years in LA, New York, and most recently Boston. But Seattle continues to be a vexxing situation.
