Happy new year, everybody! It’s true there are a few days left for your predictions to come true, but let’s stick with the idea that things won’t change between now and then. On that note, let’s see how you did with all your predictions.
Remember to leave your predictions for 2026 in the comments. I will as usual only consider the first prediction you make when I evaluate guesses next year, and some of you will continue to ignore that rule. Either way, anything after the first will be ignored in the review.
The Fate of Spirit (and Silver)
- Billy L. – With both NK (Spirit) & now 3M (Silver) in chapter 11, my prediction is that at least one of these two converts to chapter 7 and goes under.
- Floyd Handler – 1 or more of Spirit, Frontier, or Sun Country will go out of business.
- stogieguy7 – 1) Spirit won’t make it through 2025. At least, not in it’s present state. Prediction one: Spirit is bought. And the most likely buyers are Frontier and United. AA, WN and DL don’t need it, Jetblue can’t afford it; AS has their hands full. I could see UA/F9 divvying up the aircraft and gates with UA favoring those nice gates in Florida (like FLL) where UA would love to be a player again. The Airbus A320 series a/c also makes such a purchase attractive for either.
- VBurj76 – Spirit is bought out by Frontier.
- No Doubts – B6 and MX will go into Chapter 11. NK will fail to implement its bankruptcy plan to the investors’ acceptance, declare Chapter 7, and get sold for pieces.
- BOSLHRTLS – Following the incoming administration’s Policy of less regulation of the airlines, along with allowing for more foreign capital, there will be a couple big changes: JetBlue will try again to purchase Spirit
- Sour Spirit – At the 11th hour, United will purchase Spirit giving up slots in LGA & EWR and gate space in LAX and LAS to Frontier to appease the DOT.
- Jim S – I predict that JetBlue will reach a newly renegotiated deal to buy what is left of Spirit.
- Zack Rules – Spirit goess Chapter 7 after a failed attempt to significantly contract. Same with Silver Airways.
- M Miller – Breeze will buy Spirit or most of it. Neeleman can’t watch on the sidelines. 40-50 of their A320s sold/returned.
- Chris L – Spirit Airlines will declare Chapter 7 bankruptcy; UA, B6 and others will scramble to feast on the pieces. UA will pursue the Florida gates while B6 will use the bankruptcy as an opportunity to strengthen their weak position in the Midwest and heartland.
- Bricen M. – Prediction for 2025: B6 makes a play for NK again…this time while NK under CH11 and a new Administration taking over.
There is no surprise in any way that Spirit generated the most comments. After all, it was in bankruptcy at prediction time, and then it came out, and well, now it’s bankrupt again. So who was right? Well since this isn’t going out at the end of the year exactly, there is still time for things to change. But let’s assume Spirit makes it into 2026. In that case, you were all wrong!
Spirit did not file Ch 7, nor did it get bought buy Frontier, United, or Breeze. I didn’t see any Ch 22 suggestions, so it was a big, fat zero on this one. That being said, Billy L. said that either Spirit or Silver would fail, so he gets credit for Silver’s failure. But also, Zack Rules said both Spirit and Silver would fail, so you get half credit.
Throwing United Route Planning Darts
- A220HubandSpoke – UAs flight to Dakar, Senegal fails miserably. The first clue will be the low load factors (on a directional basis).
- Wany – UAL cancels UBN-NRT flight soon after winning sexist new route award.
- Angetenar – United launches SFO-SGN or SFO-BKK along with LAX-SIN
- DEN Transplant – United inexplicably announces 2 more trans Atlantic flights from Denver (and officially launches a timeline for a Polaris Club), causing already bruised egos in larger metro areas like Houston to explode.
- Hammer – United announces at least 1 new TPAC/TATL route from IAH that will launch in 2026
- Juan Trippe’s Ghost – United’s geopolitical woes ease but continue to limit growth. They return to TLV but only from EWR (no IAD/ORD/SFO), AMM returns, and (despite much bluster) without new developments in Russian airspace access they end the year as they started it only flying EWRDEL to India.
- Emil Denemark – UA will add an additional flight from Denver to Scottsbluff, NE
- ktenorman – United makes a big move into FLL as Spirit either shrinks or fails (Chapter 7), and B6 shrinks.
- Domex – United will further expand its Narita hub by flying the A321 to more SouthEast Asia points such as Vientiane, Phuket, Phu Quoc,
It is pretty remarkable how many of you decided to chime in on United’s route planning efforts. I suppose that has been one of the more interesting airlines around, so it shouldn’t have been a surprise. But as for your predictions, well, you were almost all wrong. I said “almost.”
It seems to me that A220HubandSpoke is psychic. Sure enough, Dakar is gone from the network. It didn’t last very long, and I looked at loads. Oh my. In peak August, it was 85% westbound and 58% eastbound. The summer wasn’t horrendous, but it got bad quickly outside of that. So, good on you, A220.
Angetenar, you get partial credit. There there is no SFO – SGN or BKK, the airline did launch flights to both via a Hong Kong scissor hub. So, I think that’s worthy of some recognition. And Juna Trippe’s Ghost, I thought about partial credit for the TLV return, but they are flying to both ORD and IAD as well now. So, no credit for you!
Will Southwest Succeed?
- MarylandDavid – Southwest, still operating under Elliot Management’s shadow, continues to expand beyond its long held sole aircraft type and announces that it will add additional Boeing planes, starting with the 737-900.
- Vanderhightenholden – Southwest will be able to get some of there planes configured.
- cactusneedle 1. Southwest continues to fly the miserable 737-700s (you know, the ones that were supposed to be replaced 3-4 years ago), primarily because of Boeing’s long history of missteps.
- Eric in ICT – Southwest either delays its assigned seating plans or goes ahead as scheduled and sees early positive returns. Kind of a 2-sided prediction there, I know.
- southbay flier – Southwest’s plan to sell assigned seats does not go well causing Elliott to get angry and try to force more management changes at the airline.
Southwest was in flux during prediction time last year, so I am not surprised we had some guesses here. The problem is, most were kind of cop-outs. Vanderhightenholden, yes, indeed, Southwest did get some airplanes configured for extra legroom. But that was a pretty low bar. They are right on time. And cactusneedle, of course the B737-700s are still flying. Those weren’t supposed to be out of the fleet by now anyway. And Eric in ICT, come on, talk about both sides of the coin! It looks like the latter is where you were right as there is no indication that the seating plan has been a bad idea so that does mean partial credit.
Alaska’s Hawaiian Merger Progress
- SlothsAreCool – AS quickly takes advantage of AA’s weak spots by announcing Europe flights with 787
- SEAN – 1. Rumors swirl here & elsewhere that Alaska will acquire JetBlue even as the current merger with Hawaiian flies on.
- Anthony – Alaska will announce SEA-SYD and SEA-CDG service
- Eric C – Alaska shops for and acquires additional Airbus for the Hawaiian brand, leaving Chester to awkwardly but technically remain proudly all Boeing*
- Nick Bax – My 2025 prediction: the AS/HA merger will proceed smoothly, and people will be surprised at how well the dual brand strategy works.
- Jeremy – Alaska Airlines announces plans to launch Europe flights ex SEA
- Leneld Hammond – I predict a huge expansion at PDX via AS…………………………
- SAN Greg – Hawaiian (Alaska) announces a successor to the B717 inter-island fleet: E195
The merger of Alaska and Hawaiian was also a hot topic, and the guesses were perhaps a little more on target. At least, some were. SlothsAreCool and Jeremy, we did indeed get a pair of European flights with both Rome and London now in the schedule. And Nick Bax, it has proceeded smoothly so far from what I see. Leneld Hammond, I suppose it depends on what you call “huge,” but Portland did get a fair bit of love this year, finally.
Delta Kicks Out the Boss
- Kevin – 2025 prediction: Bastian and/or Hauenstein out at DL.
- Angry Bob Crandall – 1. Ed out at DL
- DL – 1. Ed is out at DL and assumes the top role at AA.
- Mike – -Ed & Glenn will continue on just fine with DL in 2025. After a successful transformation of the airline over the last 15 years and continued very good financial performance, the Board will allow them to both to retire on their own timing some year in the future. Us Diamonds will continue to air our frustration with the company, but change nothing about our flying choices.
This may be controversial, but I’m giving Mike full credit. Yes, both Ed and Glen did fine in 2025 and nothing happened. And yes, Glen is now retiring on his own terms. That may not be happening until 2026, but I would say this is spot on. Kevin, well, Hauenstein has announced he’s retiring, so maybe some partial credit?
Delta Shows Austin the Love
- SandyCreek – DL – at least 1 more new route announcement for AUS;
- Austin787 – Delta announces more routes out of Austin (AUS)
Delta did continue its slow and deliberate build-up in Austin, so you were both right, SandyCreek and Austin 787.
American Will Reverse Course… or Not
- bzcat – 1. AA admits El Paso to the world is a stupid idea and goes back to building up corporate accounts and beef up transcon and international flying from coastal focus cities.
- dfw88 – AA does just well enough that the board chooses to let the current leadership team continue in place, despite no real changes, no strategic vision, and performance that continues to lag DL and UA.
- IAD_Flyer I predict Robert Isom will be forced out by the board. (a.k.a. “spend more time with his family”)
- Sunviking82 – AA – Announces 787-8 / -9 reconfiguration with Flagship Suites and more 787-9 orders to replace 772 / A320 retirements dates
There weren’t a lot of you talking about American last year, but dfw88 hit the nail on the head with that prediction. Nice work. But bzcat, well, they did go back to building up corporate accounts and they have sort of bulked up in Philly a little. But Chicago has been the primary build-up this year, and there hasn’t been much new coastal focus city flying. Half credit. Also, how about quarter-credit for you, Sunviking82? American didn’t reconfigure the B787s or order any more, but it did introduce a new B787 configuration for future deliveries, so that’s something.
Fleet Predictions All Over the Map
- ayesha nicole – either UA or AA announce formal retirement plans for their 777-200/ERs
- VictorKilo – With continuing production issues at Airbus and Boeing, at least one major US airline purchases or leases 10 or more used aircraft with the intent to induct them into their fleet.
- SkiGhee – Boeing 737-7 and 10 MAX are delayed again, this time to 1st quarter of 2026. WN place an order for A220-300 and United gets mad but doesn’t do anything.
- Outer Space Guy – Boeing’s lobbyists find a more compliant administration, and so both the -MAX7 and the -MAX10 variants become certified.
- Jim Kingdon – Boeing will limp along with neither a dramatic setback like bankruptcy or an extended production shutdown, but also with further delays to all three of 777X, MAX7, and MAX10.
- Matthew – 777x is grounded during certification flights again and further delaying entry into service.
- starflyer – – A non-Chinese airline orders the C919. The US is reported to consider sanctions on COMAC.
- Lucon – A large carrier will place a significant order with Embraer for narrow-bodied planes to facilitate growth.
- TomTom – – The 737 Max 7 will receive regulatory approval, while the 737 Max 10 will not.
- Lukas – At least one airline makes a dramatic fleet 180 (eg 737 MAX for Eurowings, A320s for KLM)
There’s a lot here and some are pretty broad. So I’m doing my best. VictorKilo, I’m not sure if anyone added 10 used airplanes, but I don’t think it happened. On the other hand, Lucon, do you consider Avelo large? I’m guessing not. That was a big order for Embraer, however. SkiGhee, yes, the B737-7/-10 is delayed again. That kind of seems like cheating though, doesn’t it? That’s as close to a sure bet as you find in this industry. But Southwest still has not strayed.
The starflyer prediction was a fun one. But I believe nobody ordered the C919 outside China that hadn’t already done it. Gallop Air in Brunei was already on the list.
The Politics of It All
- Tory – DOGE will shake up the FAA, including potentially privatizing (or semi-privatizing) ATC, as in many other countries.
- Jonas – More consolidation in the North American (ULCC) airline business – merger(s), bankrupcy(ies), takeover(s)… Airlines taking full advantage of the Trump DOT/DOJ.
- Zhuo Andrew – – Under new administration, China/US flight cap at least doubles, allowing more flights for both sides. Due to Russian airspace, such higher flights benefit west coast disproportionately.
- Dave-Oh – 1)There will not be a Senate-confirmed FAA administrator for the entirety of 2025.
- Jarvis of the Belmont Shores – 1. Trump will threaten EU/Airbus and/or China/Comac with Tariffs.
- Trent880 – Cozying up to Russia results in overflight bans ending–airlines pile into India but not necessarily China.
- Mike – 1) at least one ariline will get caught up in a “pay to play” fracas in which they are carrying favors with administration officials over slots at DCA
- Kott Skirby – DEI programs are dropped at all major US airlines.
- Tim Dunn – The US will mediate an end to the Russia-Ukraine war, allowing the reopening of Russian and Ukrainian airspace. A host of new and reinstated flights will be announced from Europe and the US NE to East Asia and the US to India.
- Doug Swalen – Putin will lift the overflight restrictions for US carriers.
A lot of you wanted to delve into politics, but many of you didn’t guess right. The Ukraine war is still raging, and Russian overflight is still blocked. There weren’t any significant airline merger efforts in the US, but there was an FAA administrator. Sure, Jarvis of the Belmont Shores, Trump threatened tariffs on everyone and anyone, so that was right.
The Partnership Round-Up
- Maxpower – 1. Late in the year, AA makes a go with DOT/DOJ at adding AS to the AA/JL JV (likely excluding Hawaii-Japan flights) but likely does not try to add Alaska to the Atlantic JV. Adding AS to the AA/QF JV is a long shot in 2025 since Hawaii isn’t included in the current AA/QF JV and adding AS would require adding Hawaii flying to the JV, otherwise AS doesn’t fly in the JV markets.
- CHM – – Re-started partnership between AA/B6 and/or closer partnership AA/AS.
- Cactus 2000 – AA and B6 announce proposed merger
- Pain and suffering – 1. B6/AA JV back on the table in some form (B6 joining Oneworld but that’s less prediction more my wishful thinking)
- ChuckMO – There will be another significant US merger/acquisition attempt in 2025.
- AvGeek101 – A major transaction will occur involving JetBlue. I predict NEA 2.0, or they will end up with a significant portion of Spirits’ assets, allowing them to finally expand beyond the East Coast. I also predict JetBlue and Alaska enter into a codeshare, further paving the way for an eventual merger between the two airlines.
- Dylan R. – JetBlue to OneWorld: With a more pro-business administration, the NEA is rekindled in a larger way. Marty and the gang know they need an alliance, AA/BA needs more Northeast feeder traffic, and both struggle on the west coast (hello Alaska)
There were several odds-and-ends with people thinking about partnerships or mergers, but none of them came to fruition. Maxpower, you were probably closest. It has yet to happen, but the idea that Alaska will try to join the joint ventures is absolutely still on the table as I see it. It’s more an issue of timing than anything else. All those predicting the reunion of American and Alaska, however, were thwarted by United’s entry into the fray.
Frontier Hopes to Exit Its Funk
- Agent Chris – * Frontier develops their version of The Big Front Seat and merges with Spirit
- Paul A – Frontier will expand outside the U.S. with a major route expansion.
- Ian L – Frontier announces WiFi on their aircraft, either from Starlink or Thales. Which depends on how much of Spirit they acquire when that airline inevitably goes Ch7.
Other than taking over Spirit which we already covered, some of you thought Frontier would make some bold moves. The best I can do here is give half credit to Agent Chris since Frontier did develop its own version of Big Front Seat. But none of the rest came true.
Breezing to the Future
- AJ90x ->Breeze starts flying internationally and has at least one quarter above breakeven.
- PF – Breeze files an IPO.
Breeze may not have filed an IPO since it still hasn’t made any money or proven long-term viability just yet, but it did indeed fly internationally. AJ90x, you got this one nailed.
Porter to the World
- JNicholson – Porter gets closer to One World with code shares with more carriers than AS and becomes One World Connect
So close on this one, JNicholson. Porter did indeed snuggle up closer to oneworld with an American codeshare, but it did not quite get far enough into the connect program. Three-quarters credit.
BA Exec Club No More
- Simon B – BA makes some small concessions around the Executive Club changes – likely to be some form of transitional relief or soft landings for current status holders – but largely sticks to its new approach and rides out the PR storm.
Well, they did change the name completely, but they are indeed sticking to the new approach. Good call, Simon B.
No Love for Lufthansa
- Eric A – 1. Sphor gets shown the door and a new regime at Lufty revisits the wisdom of having 37 different brands serving Europe’s second largest…and shrinking…air travel market.
- sw1x – Despite Carsten Spohr‘s announcements to the contrary, integration of ITA into Miles&More will not happen before Q3 2025.
Carsten Spohr is still in charge, but as for the integration of ITA into Miles&More? Well there is already earn and burn, but I don’t know that a date has even been set for Volare to go away. I assume that’s what you mean? If so, you’re right, sw1x.
Cathay Pacific Goes Grunge Again
- Dan P – Cathay Pacific will return to Seattle this year. That’s my prediction. I’m surprised they have not returned there. Especially being a OW hub now.
I could deny this on a technicality since Cathay only announced its return to Seattle this year, but it won’t fly until the end of March. But why would I do that? Solid prediction, Dan P.
Aer Lingus Partial Credit
- Fishka – In an attempt to make the most of the Green Party being evicted from government, and taking advantage of the suspension of the passenger cap, Aer Lingus will continue feeding the seemingly insatiable appetite for transatlantic flights from their DUBHUB. Expect the announcement of at least two of the following: PDX, STL, YUL, PIT.
You were indeed half right, Fishka. There was only one chosen from that list — Pittsburgh — but the rest remain unserved by the shamrock.
eVTOL Troubles
- Kitsune4px – Joby and Archer will both fail to achieve FAA certification for their aircraft in 2025, at least one of the major western urban air mobility companies (Joby, Archer, Vertical, Beta, Volocopter, Eve, Wisk, Supernal) will cease to be a going concern.
Kitsune4px dared to make predictions about a space I don’t really follow, but you were right. Volocopter is dead, and Supernal has suspended its aircraft program. The certification efforts continue for others…
Part 135
- BusBlitz – Part 135/380 “loophole” flying continues, maybe with a little shouting between the government and JSX, but nothing changes because the fed government is still ineffective.
I think those who predict something will happen should get more credit than those who predict something won’t happen. But in this case, BusBlitz, you were absolutely right. Nothing changed.
LAX People Mover Problems
- Greg M – I’m going to double-down on my prediction for 2024: the LAX people mover won’t be finished this year, eiether.
You were right, Greg M, though I’m not sure when it was actually believed it would open in 2025. Now, we’re into mid-2026. Care to go for the threepeat?
The Graveyard of Failed Predictions
- Kilroy – There will be at least 1 airliner (of 50 seats or more) written off due to an an attack on the airliner (that occurs while the airliner is airborne) by a governmental, quasi-governmental, or terrorist group in 2025.
- DMetz777 – One major us airline launches a basic business/first class product. The product removes lounge access and offers limited flexibility. Gate upgrades allow for it to be purchased on the day of.
- Pilotaaron1 – There will finally be meaningful discussion and reform to the 1500hr rule.
- Patrick – SAS will announce either CPH-SLC or CPH-LAS, but probably not to start before 2026.
- Bravenav – One of the US big 3 announces service to Poland.
- BRMM – Lufthansa announces a new subsidiary.
- Ebby Boyle – Southwest will have another IT meltdown
- ejwpj – Well, MH370 will be found – sometime! With the latest effort starting up again, perhaps that will be in 2025?
- Eric R – JetBlue declares bankruptcy
- Yo – Ah….Phoenix will get another carrier to Europe, most likely Lufthansa or Discover.
- CraigTPA – JetBlue will join, or at least loosely affiliate with, either OneWorld or Star.
- DesertGhost – But in the spirit of the new year, I’ll take the plunge and predict that American will finally find an airline that will acquire its A330-200s.
- HBAlbany – Avelo connects the dots with an STS-HVN nonstop.
- Mikey B – Mine is really more of a 2026 prediction, but in 2025, AA announces service from DFW to DEL and TPE.
- adeej_in_nz – Air New Zealand’s proposed flights to AKL-LGW will have issues travelling via LAX due to through passengers requiring ESTA permits even if they are only on the ground for 90 minutes-2 hours.
- Terence – DEL BO(o)Ming, US3 restoring/adding more capacity to India.
- UR – CF – As an aviation veteran, I request your scepticism for Air India not overshadow the current supply chain realities. In this age of social media where every small event becomes a big news event, we expect several decades of problems to magically go away in 3 years since the Tata’s took over, at least they are trying to do the right things. My prediction is that they reduce their losses significantly this year and hopefully make a meagre profit by 2026/27.
And now, it’s again time to flip it back to you. What will 2026 bring? Remember, only your first guess will be reviewed next year.
