I did not see this one coming. Mexico’s two biggest airlines have proposed a merger of sorts. This seems like a pretty wild proposal considering they are, again, Mexico’s two largest airlines. Is there some merit here? Probably. Is this anticompetitive? That is a question probably best left to the regulators.

This is not a typical merger as we see them in the US. This would be more like what we see in other parts of the world where there’s a single holding company that sits over multiple different airlines with much less coordination.

The idea seems to be to have each side equally contribute shares to form a new Mexican airline group… that apparently has no name yet. But this group will simply be the holding company over both airlines. The idea is to save money on fleet acquisition, procurement, etc, thanks to economies of scale.

This would seem to be quite the bold move to have these two airlines under the same ownership considering how much of the market they control together. The numbers certainly play that out on the surface.

Top 20 Mexican Airports by Domestic Seats with Combined Viva/Volaris Share

^{July 2025 – June 2026 schedule seat data via Cirium}

Aeromexico is the only other significant airline operating in the domestic market. But even Aeromexico is mostly only relevant in Mexico City itself. I suppose you could say Mexicana matters in the AIFA secondary airport market, but that’s really about it.

In the Mexico City (MEX) market, the airlines have a combined 42.5 percent of seats. But in every other market? It’s almost entirely Viva and Volaris and nobody else. Just look at those seat share numbers in the chart above.

Of course, maybe the networks are completely complementary. After all, Volaris is strongest in Tijuana and Guadalajara while Viva is big in Monterrey and Mexico City/AIFA. But also, there is a lot of overlap…

Viva/Volaris Overlap Markets

^{July 2025 – June 2026 schedule seat data via Cirium}

The overlap exists in more than a quarter of all domestic markets. It’s hard to imagine how this merger could get through antitrust, right? I honestly don’t know how strong the protections are in this regard in México, but this would presumably still require approval of US authorities as well considering there is a competitive impact in the US market.

For their part, the airlines give a bunch of reasons why this is great in their release. But these are the specific ones for passengers:

• Preserves existing choice for passengers. Both Viva and Volaris will retain their current operations under their independent certificates and titles of concession, preserving existing route offerings for passengers, while expanding distribution capacity and exploring collaboration on perks such as their leading frequent flier programs: Doters and Altitude.
• Creates new domestic travel options and expands access. The formation of the airline group will broaden access to affordable air travel and provide passengers with greater choice and convenience through more point-to-point travel solutions, new operational bases, and enhanced connectivity with potential codeshare agreements between both airlines.
• Improves international travel capabilities. Viva and Volaris will broaden their reach and continue to deliver ultra-low fares and high standards to communities abroad and tourists visiting Mexico, as well as provide passengers with greater opportunities through global codeshare partnerships and distribution systems.

My thought is that the play is that this isn’t about the domestic market but it’s about competition within Latin America. There is likely a pretty powerful combination here that could rival the likes of Avianca or Copa, at least in the north-south market. LATAM is probably a stretch too far, but still, it might be an argument to pursue.

None of these seem particularly compelling as an offset to reduced competition on the surface, but these are two airlines run by very smart people, so I imagine we will see a strong case being made. And since I don’t know how the Mexican authorities review these types of things or who else would need to give approval, I’m going to reserve judgment and watch how this plays out.