In a bold pronouncement, Frontier has come out saying that it “commits to being the #1 low fare carrier in the Top 20 U.S. metros.” This is highly unlikely to ever happen, but let’s be honest here. That is not Frontier’s goal. It just wants to kill Spirit — or at least squeeze it enough to force it to merge — and it is adding 20 new routes that sit right on top of the yellow airline. This is the last thing Spirit needs as it continues to circle the drain.
Let’s start with the proclamation that Frontier wants to be the biggest low fare operator in the top 20 metros. This is not something we can really take at face value, because we don’t even really know what this means. So, let’s discuss it.
What Counts as a Low Fare Carrier?
It’s pretty clear that Frontier is excluding the low-fare-in-reputation-only airlines of Southwest and JetBlue. If not, it would be impossible to win in a place like New York or Chicago. Presumably the airline is looking at your traditional ULCCs: Spirit, Allegiant, Sun Country, Breeze, and Avelo. This is like being the tallest dwarf. (For the record, it’s Doc.)
Overall, only Spirit has the heft of Frontier, though some of the others can offer true competition for the throne in specific markets. In most markets, Spirit is the only real competition, so this is a thinly-veiled attack.
How is Being #1 Defined?
Are we talking about passengers? Seats? Flights? Number of business model changes? Number of complaints? (If it’s one of the last two, I’m a firm believer that Frontier can make it happen.) It’s not defined, but I’m going to stick with the “seats” metric as the true measurement of who is #1. I have no idea if that’s right, but it’s what I’m going with.
What is a Metro?
Excuse me for a minute while I get really, really geeky.
It’s actually pretty funny that Charlotte is one of the markets Frontier mentioned as being on its target list since Charlotte is not even in the top 20 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), better known as metro areas. (It’s number 21.) So let’s assume we’re actually talking about Combined Statistical Areas (CSAs). Those are larger areas that can incorporate multiple MSAs. For example, in the LA area, you combine three MSAs to get the CSA: Los Angeles – Long Beach – Anaheim, Riverside – San Bernardino – Ontario, and Oxnard – Thousand Oaks – Ventura. (For those keeping score at home, this makes two posts this week that have mentioned Oxnard, which is pretty weird.)
But I digress.
What do the Numbers Say?
Let’s look at the Cirium data to see how this plays out. I looked at full year 2025 scheduled seats to measure, and this does not include the airline’s 20 new additions. What did I find? Frontier is currently number one in exactly half of the top 20 CSAs. Spirit is the largest in nine with the last one being run by Sun Country. (I’ll give you three guesses which city that is, and the first two don’t count.) In all of those markets except one, Frontier is in second place. Only in the Boston – Worcester – Providence CSA is Frontier in third, right behind Breeze.
What Would it Take to Be #1?
The obvious question to ask is exactly what would Frontier have to do to become the top low fare carrier in these markets. So, I took a look. I pulled the total departing seats from each of the markets (including secondary airports that fall in the area) and I saw what Frontier has today and what it would need. Take a look:
FY 2025 Frontier Seats for Top 20 CSAs + How to Become #1
Data via Cirium
There are some very clear problem markets here. First and foremost is, of course, South Florida. Frontier has made a variety of moves over time, but it has never made a dent in what Spirit offers. For Frontier to be #1, it needs Spirit to go away. Full stop. And no, the just-announced 3x weekly to Baltimore, Charlotte, Chicago/O’Hare, DFW, and Detroit alongside a 1x weekly to Houston/IAH and 3x weekly Miami to Detroit are not going to close that gap nearly enough.
There is one market with a lower deficit, but it’s going to be the hardest to win. We’re talking about the Twin Cities where Sun Country reigns supreme. Frontier is the largest carrier other than Sun Country, but Sun Country is not going out of business anytime soon.
The other area of note is Boston and surroundings. Frontier needs a lot more capacity to overtake Spirit, but it also has to overtake Breeze which is currently about double Frontier’s size there. That may sound funny since Breeze doesn’t even serve Boston. This is almost entirely about the mighty Providence which is currently Breeze’s fifth largest market.
The reality is that Frontier doesn’t care about all 20, but it’s a better marketing line.
Why Am I Taking This Literally?
Oh I’m not really. It just gave me the idea for a fun dive into the data. Frontier is probably in no way serious about conquering Minneapolis/St Paul. It is just trying to put out a broad strategy message that cloaks the actual plan, which is to knock off Spirit and take its place. This is what happens when airlines look to be on their death bed. The vultures circle. As a friend said to me, “Who will stick in the next knife?”
