Northwest Airlines was an absolutely ruthless competitor, and I mean that in the best way. With its hubs in Detroit and Minneapolis/St Paul, Northwest dominated the upper Midwest, and it felt compelled to extend its domain into a sphere of influence out beyond its hubs and into markets from Fargo to Indianapolis. This “Heartland” strategy was a good one, and it is one that other airlines have tried to emulate. (I consider the post-America West merger US Airways to be the spiritual heir to Northwest.)
Why am I talking about an airline that’s been gone for ages? It’s because Alaska seems to have caught on to this plan, drawing a line around the Pacific Northwest and declaring a heartland of its own. That was highlighted recently when it announced a variety of new routes:
- Boise – Ontario
- Eugene – Burbank
- Pasco – Burbank
- Redmond/Bend – Burbank
- Santa Rosa – Palm Springs
- Spokane – Orange County
- Sun Valley – San Diego
Of course, some of this was a reaction to Avelo exiting the West Coast, especially those Burbank adds. But it is still part of a broader strategy to own the Pacific Northwest that has only grown in recent years.
I’m going to show you three maps. I looked at all routes that Alaska started and/or exited since 2017. I focused specifically on markets in the Continental US that do not touch Seattle or Portland. Let’s start with the markets that existed in 2017 and no longer operate.
Maps generated by the Great Circle Mapper – copyright © Karl L. Swartz.
Now let’s look at those markets that started after 2017 but have also gone by the wayside.
Maps generated by the Great Circle Mapper – copyright © Karl L. Swartz.
Lastly, here are the routes that have started since 2017 and are still shown as operating into 2026 as of today.
Maps generated by the Great Circle Mapper – copyright © Karl L. Swartz.
You’ve probably noticed some patterns here. First, what does not work is midcon and transcon from California. Those red lines mark the abandonment of the old Virgin America network. (Yes, yes, this is where you question the wisdom of that acquisition… again.)
Then look at everything Alaska has tried and failed to make work. Yes, there is the Florida growth that Alaska hoped would take hold during the pandemic when nothing else was working. There were also some efforts in Austin and Dallas/Love to grow that did not work, with the latter having been abandoned completely. Paine Field has been a “trial-and-error” type of adventure since it opened. And yes, even Boise did see some of its growth fail. But Boise is a key part of the heartland for Alaska. It’s just that not everything worked.
If we look at the last map, you can see what Alaska has really learned here. First, yes, it is seeing more success flying transcon from San Diego than it did from LAX or San Francisco. It continues to pour efforts into that market. Outside of that, however, is a whole lot of north-south flying.
Look at all that growth from Washington, Oregon, Montana, and Idaho down into California and the desert southwest. This is a strategy that should serve the airline well, and it’s one that has only been possible thanks to the power of the Embraer 175.
Before, there were a lot more flights operated by mainline airplanes within the Continental US but outside of Seattle and Portland. Over time, this has changed.
Departures by Fleet Data via Cirium
Naturally, some of the mainline flying had to be phased out since it was old Virgin America stuff that didn’t make sense. Alaska was better off with that capacity in places like Seattle and Portland. Today, there are fewer than half the number of mainline departures outside of the two main hubs compared to what was there during the Virgin America days.
There is still substantial mainline flying, but that is focused on the big cities of San Francisco, Los Angeles, and more recently, San Diego. Fun fact, outside of those big cities plus Seattle and Portland, the only mainline flights in the Continental US in 2026 are New York/JFK to Palm Springs as well as Paine Field to both Las Vegas and Phoenix.
The Q400 used to be a player in this region, but as those have gone away, the Embraer 175s have opened up new markets with greater range and faster flight times. And that has created this world of opportunity.
Alaska largely stays away from Southwest markets when it can — San Diego is an exception. In a recent Cranky Network Weekly, we took a deeper look at Alaska’s Burbank presence over time. I’ll include the chart that was in that analysis here:
San Jose was tried before the pandemic, but it did not work. That’s a market where you just can’t beat Southwest. But look at all the markets that have been added in the last year. None of those are currently Southwest markets — except for Boise which when served by Southwest is seasonal and less than daily — and they all should have decent fares.
I know, I know, in a couple of those markets, Breeze will take Avelo’s place. But Breeze will effectively have to sell itself as the cheap option since it will only fly twice a week. Meanwhile, Alaska will fly daily, can leverage Mileage Plan and AAdvantage loyalty members, and will offer the premium product that Avelo never did.
This helps make Alaska more relevant in Burbank, but more importantly, it further solidifies Alaska’s dominance in the PNW, its heartland. It’s a good move that should continue to pay dividends.
