The Air Current reported last week after Jon Ostrower talked to new Alaska/Hawaiian President Shane Tackett that the airline is likely leaning toward the B737-800 as a replacement for the B717 for interisland flying when the time comes to replace that airplane. This has always been the most likely option, though it does create some challenges.

But first, let’s forget about those challenges and bask in the glow of AI. Gemini put this bad boy together for me.

Sure, it’s not perfect. The flower in Pualani’s hair looks rather suspect, but come on, still fun to envision this in the 1980s-era livery. Not feeling it? Ok, let’s update it with the airline’s current look.

That looks great on this airplane. But enough fluff, let’s talk about what really matters here. This is going to be a change in how Hawaiian operates.

Today, the B717 has 8 seats up front and 120 in coach. These airplanes work very hard. With a fleet of 18, Hawaiian puts together a schedule with up to about 150 daily departures within the islands. Yes, that’s more than 8 flights per aircraft per day on those peak days, and often not every airplane is flying. (Two of them haven’t flown in a couple months.)

These airplanes are uniquely good at doing this work. The old Douglas-designed airplanes are tanks that could technically fly forever, and the unique Rolls/BMW jointly-designed engines are excellent at quick turnarounds. For newer engines, that isn’t the case. They take longer to spool up and cool down, and there needs to be more time in between flights. The B717 is just the ultimate rock star in this very specific use case.

But alas, that airplane hasn’t been built in 20 years, and while they can keep these going for a few more years, the end is near. Of the 156 B717 aircraft built between 1998 and 2006, 95 are still active. Hawaiian has 18 while Delta has 77. That’s it. Now, could Hawaiian try to acquire some airframes from Delta to extend the life? Yeah, since those Delta airframes undoubtedly have fewer cycles than the Hawaiian ones do. But that would just be a bandage. The airline will need a replacement sometime, so it might as well rip that bandage off when its current fleet hits its limits.

Now, the B737-800 is a much bigger airplane. Today, Alaska has 16 seats up front, 30 in premium class, and 115 in the back for a total of 161 on its retrofitted airplanes. It has just shy of 60 airplanes in the fleet built between 2005 and 2012. These aren’t spring chickens, but they certainly do not have the huge number of cycles that the Hawaiian B717s have. This feels like it would be an interim replacement instead of a long-term solution, but maybe that’s ok. After all, Alaska already has these airplanes, and it is rapidly taking delivery of new MAX aircraft. These airplanes will be easy enough to slide into the interisland market by the time the B717s are done.

But how exactly will Alaska do this? Will it follow the Southwest model of flowing airplanes from the mainland? Or will it use a dedicated fleet as it does with the B717 today? Shane has opinions on this as well.

They’ll be branded Hawaiian, they’ll be based in the islands. It could take us five years to get there, but that would be my expectation.

Well I’m not surprised they would be branded Hawaiian, of course. And based in the islands? Yes, that makes sense as well. But this doesn’t tell us whether or not the airplanes will ever leave the islands. Several things will probably go into that decision.

Most importantly, what does Hawaiian want to do with that interior? The flights within the islands are very, very short with no flight taking more than 45 minutes in the air. They do need a small first class cabin, but they don’t need a lot of extra legroom seats. They also can go with lower pitch in regular coach. From that perspective, it would make a lot of sense to outfit these airplanes in a dense configuration that would work better in the interisland market.

On the other hand, does Hawaiian really need more than 161 seats when it has far less today? Flight frequency is really important in the islands. There might be an opportunity to trim some flying but with no other option to get between cities, frequency can’t go dramatically lower. So maybe Hawaiian would be ok keeping airplanes in a more generous configuration. If they did that, they could rotate them to mainland destinations as well.

That might be nice to have a smaller airplane then the current Hawaiian A321neo fleet going to the mainland, but there is a downside. These are older airplanes, and they don’t have the legs of the MAX fleet which can handle this with ease. Yes, the -800s fly to the islands today, but as they age even more, this is likely going to become less attractive. Maintenance will also be an issue on aging aircraft, but you’d want a small airplane like this to go to an outstation like Burbank, not a hub where maintenance is easier.

To really understand this better, I have been looking at the way Southwest routes its airplanes between the mainland and the the interisland market. I’ll look at that tomorrow. But suffice it to say that I’m skeptical these airplanes would leave the islands once they get that Hawaiian coat of paint on them.

That, of course, is if this actually comes to fruition. Shane was clear this was not a done deal.