We had already learned that American’s very first A321XLR route would be on transcon from New York/JFK to LAX, but it wasn’t until last week that we found out where the airplane would first fly across the Pond. First stop? Edinburgh.
It was never really in doubt that the first Transatlantic flight would go from JFK. After all, with the airplane starting on JFK – LAX first, that would make it far easier to flow the airplane. The first transcon flight is AA 3 from JFK on December 18, but it will then slowly get the hang of things in that market exclusively for a few months flying a couple of daily flights.
Then on March 8, it will enter international service with a single daily flight to Edinburgh. The airplane leaves at 9pm, arrives Edinburgh at 7:30am, departs at 11:25am and gets back at 2:25pm. If this sounds like a ridiculously early start to the summer season, you aren’t wrong. And if it seems like an absurdly long layover, well, that too is true. But there appears to be some real method to the madness here, and it has been designed to help break the airplane in slowly and cautiously.
March 9 happens to be the day that the US goes back on Daylight Saving Time. The UK, however, doesn’t go until March 29. So during that time, the airplane arrives into Edinburgh an hour earlier than it otherwise would. As soon as March 29 hits — also the day when the IATA summer season goes into effect for scheduling — the schedule immediately improves. It will still depart JFK at 9pm, but it now arrives at 8:30am. It will then turn in two hours, departing at 10:30am and getting back at 12:30pm. That is presumably going to be the normal schedule for the future.
Operationally, this seems like a wise way to roll out the new service. But why is Edinburgh the first market? Well, we looked into that last week in Cranky Network Weekly, and here’s the chart:
These are the top Transatlantic markets from New York this past August within the range of the XLR. The first five markets are all served by American today with widebodies. The sixth (Dublin) is served by joint venture partner Aer Lingus. Once we get beyond those, however, there are 10 other markets that are bigger than Edinburgh. So again, why Edinburgh?
I think we have a mix of factors going on here. First, I think it’s safe to assume that American would want to start service to cities it serves in some capacity already. There’s no reason to open a new station for a new airplane… too risky and unnecessary. So that not only kicks out Orly and Gatwick — which weren’t going to happen anyway since American served CDG and Heathrow already — but also Berlin, Manchester, and Brussels. (Manchester, by the way, is served by Aer Lingus anyway.)
Beyond that, I assumed that a hub for another airline/joint venture wouldn’t make much sense. Those already have more capacity than they need for the local market thanks to the hub status, and some — like Lisbon — are highly capacity-constrained and couldn’t take another flight anyway. So that eliminates Frankfurt, Amsterdam, Lisbon, and Zurich. And then there were two.
That meant it was a fight between Nice and Edinburgh. Looking at the above chart, Nice looks exceedingly strong. It has much higher demand than it has capacity, and though not shown here, it has a much higher fare than Edinburgh. But we have to remember that this is August and the flight will go from March through October.
Daily Passengers Each Way by Month From New York
ARC/BSP data via Cirium
As you can see, Nice is a much more seasonal market even in the shoulder season. It still has a higher fare year-round, but there are fewer passengers. Besides this isn’t a market that should matter to American and its partners. Edinburgh, well that’s a different story.
You’d think that the joint venture between British Airways, Aer Lingus, and American would make Edinburgh a good place to serve, but it’s already a crowded place. There are flights from Delta, JetBlue, and United in summer today, so it seems rather crowded.
Delta and United may have huge pools of demand in New York, but in Scotland you would think that British Airways could drum up some business. On top of that, Delta and United put their oldest and crappiest products in the market. United has it’s B757s with 2-2 in business class while Delta has its B767-300ERs with tired seating as well. So American can come in with a great product and try to capture enough traffic to fill those mere 155 seats onboard.
I imagine there were operational factors here as well. First off, Edinburgh is not very far away from New York at only 2,829 nautical miles. That airplane can go well over 4,000 nm, so this is just an easy hop to test its legs. And beyond that, BA has a maintenance facility at Edinburgh, so if work needs to be done, it will probably be pretty easy to get quick help and parts… as long as the parts overlap with what the regular A320neo family uses.
To me, this looks like a smart and simple use of the aircraft. It’s a good place to start. Would this be the first place I would want to use this new weapon from a strictly commercial perspective? No, probably not. But it’s a calculated decision.
