You’ve probably heard the news. After yesterday’s Godzilla Day celebration, Godzilla has decided to relocate from his home between Tokyo and Narita Airport to the other side of town. He’ll now grace the Terminal 3 lobby at Haneda Airport. That’s the international terminal, so it’s not going to be good news for travelers who prefer not to be killed by a giant monster. This, of course, is great news for Narita which had fallen on hard times.
Here’s a look at the drawing of what it’s supposed to look like when Godzilla moves down the road before year-end. Those poor people down below have no idea that their demise is imminent.
Image via Japan Airport Terminal Co., Ltd.
This seismic shift in monster density has forced me to update my most famous map. (And yes, you can buy a shirt!) This is the new lay of the land.
Now, I could go on and on and make a full post on this without using any numbers and possibly just try and sell shirts, but you know me too well for that crap. Instead, this just gives me the opportunity to look at Narita which has actually done just fine for itself, albeit with shifting traffic patterns. So, I turned to Cirium.
Over the last 20 years, Narita has been forced to change, because Haneda has changed. Since Narita opened in the 1970s, it was the international airport and close-in Haneda served as primarily a domestic operation. But starting in 2010, more international flights were opened up at Haneda. And over the next decade, it was opened up more and more, often at Narita’s expense.
Here’s a look at the airport’s departing seats by geography. I think you’ll find it enlightening.
Narita Departing Seats by Destination
Data via Cirium
Before COVID, you can see that there was quite a dip in 2011. It was 2010, in fact, when Haneda opened up, but the big impact in 2011 was actually the Tōhoku earthquake/tsunami and ensuing Fukushima nuclear disaster. This was, as we all know, caused by Godzilla, so it all comes full circle. But you can see that traffic had been dropping before then anyway.
Haneda has long been preferred by the locals around Tokyo, not to mention Yokohama. But there are still people that live closer to Narita and find it more convenient. Besides, Haneda could never handle all of the city’s traffic needs. It just took some of the longer-haul operations.
What we see here is that the black/gray shades for travel within Asia have been rising rapidly. Meanwhile, the blue shades going beyond Asia have been shrinking, most notably the US and Europe. Overall, this means that traffic levels are about where they were a decade ago overall.
Where this gets interesting is when we look at the airlines and, more-specifically, the types of carriers that are making up the difference here.
Narita Departing Seats by Airline/Airline Type 2025 vs 2005
Data via Cirium
ANA and JAL and their respective joint venture partners around the world are down significantly. Some of this is, yes, the decline in airlines like United, American, British Airways, etc that have moved their traffic to Haneda. But there’s also a significant shift of ANA and JAL flying that has moved to low-cost operators like Peach, Jetstar Japan, and ZIPAIR. Much of the business travel-focused flying has gone to Haneda, but Narita is still gaining elsewhere.
You can also see an explosion in service from Chinese carriers, more than doubling in the last 20 years. And let’s not forget about growth from other Asian low-cost operators. Think of AirAsia, Scoot, Jin Air, Jeju Air, Cebu Pacific, you get the point. That was non-existent 20 years ago, but now it is a massive operation.
And yes, we see the decline from other carriers outside of Asia. A big chunk of that is Delta which has left Narita completely, but United and American have both reduced their presence. But it’s also other non-joint venture carriers from Europe that add to the total.
Over the last several years, Narita has really come into its own. To be fair, many predicted that low-cost carriers would quickly fill the void there, but people also said it would become focused almost entirely on low-cost operators. That’s not the case. Even from the US, every airline except for Delta has continued service there, and United has built its mini-hub with service to places like Ulaanbator and Kaoshiung. Alaska made it the first long-haul destination from Seattle after purchasing Hawaiian.
Now, with Godzilla having gone south to Haneda, Narita is poised to continue its rise even more.
