Ask Cranky: Is Southwest Overbooking Again?


I haven’t done an entry in this series for a long time, and honestly when I got this email from a reader, I didn’t think I’d be doing it here either. But then, it turns out, the answer is far more interesting than I expected.

Let’s start with the question from William…

I haven’t seen this before. Has Southwest quietly changed its overbooking policy? I’m always game for a voluntary bump, but there’s no way I’ll do this for $30. Could they give that amount to me in rolled up pennies as an alternative, maybe? I guess Southwest is looking for people who wanted to change, but the fares were too high.

He included a screenshot of an email where indeed he was offered $30 if he wanted to change his flight. I’ve seen other airlines do this, but I, like William, assumed Southwest wouldn’t do this since it doesn’t overbook. My guess at the time was that he was just downgauged from a B737-800/-8 to a B737-700, so they had to offload some passengers. But then I got the same email.

To be fair, this wasn’t the exact same email. Mine was only $20 instead of $30. But I was always scheduled on a B737-700, so this couldn’t have been a downgauge. Is Southwest overbooking again? No. No it’s not.

The dots finally connected when this press release from Volantio came out on October 15. Apparently, Southwest will send emails to customers on high-demand flights to try to get them to move on to a different option. This is what Volantio apparently calls “Post-Booking Revenue Management.” Maybe that’s an industry term and I’m just not aware of it, but it does make sense.

As I see it, the idea is that within a week of travel, Southwest may have regrets. If it sold cheap seats and demand remains strong, it could have sold those seats for more money. So, it will open up flexibility for travelers. Not only will it allow them to change for free, but they’ll throw a small enticement in. In my case, it was $20 in future credit. In William’s case, it was $30.

I can’t imagine any traveler being swayed by the small amount of credit. This is more about finding the traveler who maybe wanted to switch anyway. In that case, it should be a no-brainer… if it was implemented better. As you see in that email, if you switch, you will lose any upgraded/EarlyBird boarding that you purchased. You don’t even get your money back. You just lose.

This is a temporary issue, of course, since assigned seating comes in January. But I am rather curious to see how they decide to handle it when people have paid for Extra Legroom seating when the time comes.

For me, this was a non-starter anyway. I didn’t have flexibility on time. But Southwest did give me three options in case I did. The first two were ridiculous since they were two full days earlier, but the third was just a morning flight that same day. I can see that being appealing to some people.

In this case, I paid somewhere around $170 one way. Right now, the cheapest ticket on that flight is selling for $240. If I can move to a different flight, even if you count the $20 credit as cash, they still stand to make an extra $50 if they can resell it.

This requires the system to be reasonably good at predicting if a seat can be resold or not, but this is also not new technology. There is a track record. I was offered the same thing by Alaska earlier this year. I just assumed it was related to overbooking, but there’s no reason it has to be.

This feels like a nice little opportunity to juice revenue just a bit by offering something that should only be viewed as a benefit to the customer. I say it “should” be viewed that way, because the current implementation that takes away your priority boarding has an absolute downside. Hopefully that will change in January. If the math works right, the upside is there for the airline.

So, that’s the answer, William. Thanks for leading me to learn more about exactly what was going on here.

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Brett Avatar

6 responses to “Ask Cranky: Is Southwest Overbooking Again?”

  1. Lost Luggage Avatar
    Lost Luggage

    I came across this topic last week and will give the heads up to my sister and niece who are big time Southwest fliers.
    Make them aware about the measly cash reward and corresponding forfeit of seat or boarding upgrades fees.
    What else does Southwest have in its back pocket?

  2. Wany Avatar
    Wany

    Seen many posts on Reddit with similar offer and crazy options that are +/- several days. It would be interesting to see how many actually took this offer.
    I had a recent experience with Icelandair doing something similar. I was given 24 h to accept a first come first serve offer of $100 to move my flights 2 days ealier. While $100 sounds a bit better than $20, it still seems ridiculous low given the cost of a typical iceland trip.

  3. Neil Avatar
    Neil

    Alaska does this pretty regularly as well. Some of their rewards can be a bit more enticing (I’ve seen as high as $75 but also as low as $25).

  4. Emil Avatar
    Emil

    $20 for the Kettles that fly on Southwest is a fortune

  5. Tonei Glavinic Avatar
    Tonei Glavinic

    I mean it’s right there in the email what they plan to do – “seat upgrade purchases will be forfeited”. Not sure if it’s an IT limitation or they’re just dead set on not letting anyone get a refund for early bird/upgraded boarding/seat fees outside of irops

  6. NedsKid Avatar
    NedsKid

    I am with you Brett that if it were same day and worked at least neutrally for me, why not. Especially with the coming of seat assignments where if I can get a comparable seat… whereas today I think there is sometimes a bit of a gamble with the boarding number algorithm versus those who originally booked on the flight (Early Bird does, or at least used to, take booking date into account and have heard reports of people moving flights and getting booking date reset for this purpose – not that it really moves the needle much).

    I have had an offer of $30 and a $50 before from WN in years past… though that was I’m sure motivated by something different. Both times were the same week in December booked out of SNA – they were already restricting ticket sales at that point due to the passenger cap approaching. But $50 to move my SNA-OAK to fly out of BUR and you aren’t gonna transport me over to BUR? Maybe if they offered LGB.. But I don’t see many people in the LA area willing to swap airports like that for so little money unless it’s someone who is there on business or vacation and either won’t be out of pocket for ground transport, or at the moment of the offer priced it out on the Uber app and saw oh, that’s not bad (then when it’s time to go it’s 4x the price and takes 3x as long).

    I’m shocked airlines haven’t done this before… and always, when I was on the operations side, thought that the best thing to do was fill seats before they expired at departure time. It only solves a yet-to-be-known issue later in the day. I’ve had AA proactively (against my will) rebook me off an estimated missed connection, then I make the original connections to be told that because I didn’t meet the deadline to add myself to standby back on my original flight in the app they can’t help me, push with empty seats, then have the rebooked last flight of the night take volunteers… They’ve rectified some of that purposeful unhelpfulness recently.

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