To say it has been a whirlwind month for those who live in Washington, DC would be an understatement. It has been an absolutely insane month, truth be told. Now, American is pulling back at its primary airport in the region, Washington/National, or DCA, and I’m guessing that these two things are directly related.
Just think about everything that region has had to endure since inauguration day. With the new administration in “slash and burn” mode, it seems that about 75,000 federal employees took an early-out and left while more than 30,000 have been laid off. Not all of these are in DC, of course, but DC has a high percentage of its population that works for the federal government — probably at least 20 to 25 percent if you include contractors — so that means there is likely to be an outsized impact on the region.
But the impact on airlines is not just from those who have lost their jobs or even those who work for the feds. Think about the entire DC ecosystem. There are consultants and lobbyists and restauranteurs and so many more who make a living based on what happens in the federal government. And right now, the federal government is looking for austerity spending to guide the way.
This creates the first hit to air travel demand. There are fewer people in the federal government and the government is cutting back spending, so there is likely to be less demand for those traveling on or to government business in the region. Less business travel means lower demand for flights.
There are obviously still hundreds of thousands of people who live in the area and haven’t lost their federal jobs, but… they are worried they might. There is a tremendous amount of uncertainty in the region, and what does that mean? People are more afraid to spend on unnecessary things that might deplete savings.
This brings us to the second hit to air travel demand. When people lack certainty, they spend less and travel is one of the first things to see cuts. That means air travel demand will drop on the leisure side as well.
This is already a bad story, but if that’s not enough, well, we can’t forget the accident at DCA last month. Yes, the loss of so many lives was a national story, but it always hits people harder when it’s at your home airport. On top of that, you have the delays that resulted when capacity was reduced. It just feels harder to travel by plane in the DC area, especially if using DCA, and anxiety is rising. That is the third hit to demand in the region since it might cause some to delay travel plans — or pick a different mode of transport — even if they have the money. I don’t think this is a major driver, but it’s icing on the top of this demand-dropping cake.
With demand on the ropes, what can airlines do? DCA is slot-controlled, so American can’t just cut back on flights without risking losing the slots in the future. So, it is doing the next best thing and downgauging to smaller airplanes.
For the May schedule — probably the closest one that can be adjusted without causing severe pain for travelers — American filed several downgauges from 128-seat A319s to 76-seat regionals. We imagine we will see future months get the same treatment. What dropped?
- Atlanta 1x daily to CRJ-700
- Boston 1x daily to Embraer 175
- Burlington 1x daily to CRJ-700
- Charleston (SC) 1x weekly to Embraer 175
- Fort Myers 1x daily to Embraer 175
- Fort Walton Beach 1x daily to Embraer 175
- Hartford 1x daily to Embraer 175
- Indianapolis 1x weekly to CRJ-700
- Jacksonville 1x daily to Embraer 175
- Pittsburgh 1x daily to Embraer 175
- Providence 2x daily to CRJ-700
- Raleigh/Durham 1x weekly to CRJ-700 and 1x weekly to Embraer 175
- Syracuse 1x weekly to Embraer 175
Where are all those A319s going? Well, here’s a map we published in Cranky Network Weekly this week showing that they are being scattered around in various places where American thinks it can make more money than it can flying them in DC.
Looking at a sample week using Cirium data, that cuts about 2.5 percent of departing seats for the airline at DCA. This is not a big number, but it’s also an easy cut to make. If things continue to drag on or even get worse, then I’d imagine American will have to take an even harder look at what it is planning to fly.
This could very well be the proverbial canary in the coal mine. The actions of the federal government won’t just impact DC, and an economic slowdown is a real possibility here, if not likely. It may be time to strap in and get ready to ride out some, shall we say, less robust times.
46 comments on “As Uncertainty Reigns Over Washington, American Cuts Back”
I think a key point was missed, are other airlines at DCA reducing capacity or is this just an AA story? American has been reducing capacity compared to DAL and UA for awhile industrywide. I would be interested if this is just the continued decline of AA and not a reduction in demand at DCA.
This is a great question, Brian, I was thinking along similar lines.
AA is already weak compared to the others majors. They have had a proclivity for RJs to run routes and the makeup of the total AA fleet is more RJ heavy than either DL (lowest # RJs) or UA (in the middle for RJs), but in some way this reminds me of the Smisek days at UA where he was downsizing to meet declining demand which in many ways was caused by the reduction in gauge (and service) and then it became a self-fulfilling prophesy.
As a UA flyer, I hated those days of more and more RJs and less mainline flying. At one point Denver had so few mainline flights I wondered if UA would keep the hub going – and my what a difference today with the buildup of Denver and mainline flying.
But back to the Smisek days, the reduction in gauge sent frequent flyers to the competition, when UA was flying DEN-ATL with nothing but CRJ200s, it drove a lot of UA flyers to DL as nobody wanted to fly that route in a CRJ200. There were a few times where I could buy F on DL for about the same cost as the CRJ200 seat. Kirby got this quickly and reversed course to start building what is UA today.
I wonder if some of the same fate awaits AA with the reliance on smaller jets for more routes.
If I’m flying Main Cabin, then I significantly prefer an E175 rather than an A319. The seats on the E175 are wider, the 2×2 configuration guarantees me a window or aisle seat, and boarding and deplaning are faster. A CRJ-700 is a different story.
Alex, I don’t mind the E170/175 RJs, but I’ll take the 319 over any RJ any day. Strictly speaking of UA, the seat width on the 175 is 18″ (18.2″ on a 170, but there are only 16 of those still flying UA) and on the 319 it is 17.7, not sure I can really tell that there is a 1/3 inch difference between the two and pitch is 34 for E+ on both aircraft. The 170/175 has either 12 or 16 E+ seats and the 319 has 36 or 42. The only advantage that the 175s have is that with a smaller total number of passengers, my upgrade chances are more likely to happen than on the bigger 319 and, in fact, I do tend to see more upgrades on the e-jets than on mainline due to the smaller competition numbers.
While I appreciate the no middle seat, I haven’t had to sit in a middle in years (I have advance notice on almost all trips so I don’t book close in to the flight), I’ll take all the extra E+ seat options and the bigger overhead bins (especially with the Next updates) over the slight width of a seat and no middle on a 170/175.
“American has been reducing capacity compared to DAL and UA for awhile industrywide.”
When was/is AA reducing system capacity?
25 schedule vs 24
Flights: up 6.8%
Seats: up 4.9%
ASMs: Up 4.8%
24 vs 23 was:
Flights: up 8.3%
Seats: up 6.5%
ASMs: up 5.8%
25 vs 24 DL:
Flights up 9.1%
Seats up 7.5%
ASMs up 7.0%
25 vs 24 UA:
Flights up 8.6%
Seats up 7.0%
ASMs up 6.7%
For 24 vs 23, AA was higher than DL and UA on flights and Seats, but lower on overall capacity
DL Flights up 4.2%
UA Flights up 6.1%
DL Seats up 4.6%
UA Seats up 6.1%
DL ASMs up 5.9%
UA ASMs up 6.9%
“Reducing capacity” isn’t an AA trend or story. DCA certainly seems to be.
Thanks Max, yes, AA is not reducing capacity in general. This is very specific and as others have noted, it’s very close-in. Whether other airlines will follow or not, I have no idea, but I can’t see this in any other way than being a response to weakening demand.
Cranky specifically described how the 319s are being moved to other routes. It’s a rearranging of capacity away from DCA, not a net cut systemwide. They’re not parking the 319s.
It sucks here right now. My wife already got laid off and I know dozens of others that have too. From a flying standpoint don’t forget the absolutely absurd rules that are making it impossible for Feds and Contractors to fly, such as the 1 dollar credit card limit for feds and Contractors needing to stay on fed employee per diem rates when flying while not having access to Fed IDs that make those rates accessible.
If there’s one thing that should be our saving grace it’s no economy can survive millions of firings + 25% tariffs + cutting medicaid + cutting SSA benefits + having a completely unstable president + having a copresident only in it to enrich himself, so the sooner the inevitable crash happens, the sooner we can rebuild and people will come to their senses
I agree 100%
Assuming we are able to pull ourselves out of this destructive pattern. This is “Project 2025” in action & this is exactly what The Heritage Foundation has been wanting for the last several decades.
The tariffs are the worst.
Have to commend Brett for saying what he said in such a neutral, apolitical way. I doubt I’d have had it in me! (I’m more like Mike above.)
They key point is that is it is quite possible, likely even that this is a harbinger of economic turbulence ahead. As with delays at ORD or bad weather in NYC, such can have ripple effects throughout the system.
I do believe the “fasten seatbelts” sign is about to come on. Strap in everyone.
Don’t forget about the agencies like the FAA being decimated from the inside out & that will cause many people to reduce flying if they don’t feel safe. This is all being all by design.
being done by design.
Oops!
Decimated??? How????
Towers closed?
AARTC’s closed?
New staffing issues?
ATC schools closed?
Line safety personnel fired?
Or just venting based on idealogy vs reality?
Per Aviation International News (AIN):
“PASS, which represents workers who inspect and maintain the nation’s air traffic control systems, believes that up to 300 members may be affected. Anecdotally, this includes a range of positions that include maintenance mechanics, aeronautical information specialists, environmental protection specialists, aviation safety assistants, and management and program assistants (administration personnel).
NATCA president Nick Daniels reported that numerous NATCA Region X employees were affected. Region X members are not controllers; however, they are involved in an array of tasks at the agency, including key safety-related roles such as aircraft certification specialists, airport division employees, automation support specialists, and aviation technical system specialists, among others. ”
https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/air-transport/2025-02-17/hundreds-faa-employees-drawn-mass-layoffs
This detail is important – the real potential for future problems is getting lost in the media coverage of recent events. None of the recent Trump/DOGE actions have done much to change the safety environment TODAY – DCA was a specific issue that had nothing to do with it, dentist-killers and military planes are having issues at the rates they usually do, and the Toronto incident was, well, in Canada. Last time I looked, President Musk and his pet Trump had no authority there.
I’ve had a couple of friends ask me if it’s safe to fly this week, and I say “yes.” You may still hit ATC issues (hello, Jacksonville!), but not much has changed from, say, December.
But the Musk/Trump actions could very likely be hollowing out parts of the system in ways that won’t manifest themselves for months or years, until they do. That’s the issue. Decisions aren’t being made based on analysis, they’re just being made by Musk’s team of know-nothings acting at random.
If nothing else, it’s a big argument in favor of what I’ve supported for years, the creation of a US counterpart to NavCanada. Get politics out of it.
It’s all part of that 2025 plan that the bad orange man is putting into place. Come on Sean tell it like it REALLY is.
What we see in DC is similar to what we’ve seen in other metro areas where their particular “industry” declined for various reasons (ie. PIT).
Sure but what you saw in the rust belt happened over decades and was the result unfortunate changes in the global economy mixed with a desire from wealthy to consolidate their power. Whats happening now has no justification beyond destroying an economy merely to exert political retribution (and for the wealthy to further consolidate their power)
Furthermore, the erosion of hubs has as much to do with airline consolidation (US airways, continental, nwa) as it does economies. Which is why Detroit got hit hardest of all but still has a strong hub at its airport
Make Every Week DC Week!
Really intrigued to see what UA does at IAD since there was been so much build up to push connections there. Along with EWR missing a runway for 2 months and UA putting additional flights through IAD.
International travel (especially to/from Europe) is going to drop which will certainly be a hit to UA @ IAD. Only possible good news is prices will also decline due to over capacity. In DC (IAD & BWI) there are 4 airlines offering non stop flights to London daily in the summer.
Something tells me flights to Moscow may ramp up
Wonder if US based airlines will be banned from certain countries in the near future, or if the administration will ban an airline from a country that doesn’t bend to their will.
That would indicate a doomsday scenario, right? Alas every the doomsdayers have said would happen has indeed occurred thus far, so… nothing can be dismissed as possible
Praise ye Cassandra.
Will be interesting to see how many Europeans will cancel their US vacation trips. WestJet already reported a 25% drop of bookings from Canada to US, I believe.
Brits demanding their Florida holidays will not be put off their Disney trips, I would guess. Principles can be bought cheap.
Initially, at least, I think most travelers will keep to their current plans and not hold Trump against the entire US, although some specific US destinations identified with Trump or MAGA (e.g. Florida) could see specific drops, and there’ll be a drop in business travel.
And a lot of the Westjet drop could just be people realizing that as Porter keeps growing they have a better alternative. Westjet has burned through most of the cultural capital it build up from being the “scrappy underdog” alternative to AC back in the day. AC vs Westjet is like AC vs Canadian back in the day, not a lot of difference.
If we start to see Porter reporting drop-offs in bookings, looking for non-US destinations, or deferring new aircraft deliveries, then it’ll be time to really start worrying.
Got an anecdotal report on European flight loads from a flight attendant on my more than half empty flight from MAD to PHL about a week ago. She said outbound to Europe from PHL has been full, returning to the US from Europe, mostly empty. Wonder if anyone with access to data can see if this is reality? I can certainly speculate that European tourists are not flocking to the US in the current environment.
stephen e – This is the time of year when loads tend to be pretty low anyway. It’s just the start of when places like Europe might get a traffic boost, so it’s not strange to get asymmetrical loads.
Are there any flight cuts or just capacity reductions? DCA’s slot rules may make it impossible for AA to scale back on the number of flights, even if it would be a good idea (notwithstanding what’s happening in the administration) in light of how saturated the airport is.
Bjorn – These are just downgauging to smaller airplanes. No flight cuts yet.
Like sands through the hourglass, so are the Skeds of Airlines…
May need to make a few cameos in 2025.
Over the last 6 months of very frequent flying on United and American, AA seems to have softening demand compared to United. It’s also that time of year for softened demand.
Is it remotely possible that AA could actually need that capacity elsewhere in pockets of high demand/yields and are just making common sense business decisions?
For an airline to make drastic schedule changes less than 2 months out means they are responding to a dramatic shift in the demand landscape. I could agree with you if these were peak summer changes but these are schedules which are already out for crew bid. Major airlines (not F9/NK) do not make <60 day changes for gradual shifts in demand.
David C – Definitely not. The routes these are going on are not particularly high demand routes. They’re just better than losing their asses at DCA. This has to be a DCA demand story.
Will be interesting to circle back in a few months on average fares for these routes (and DCA in general) to see how yields have been potentially affected.
From a route planner’s perspective, is something like this handled by a single desk or by a group?
Would be interesting to know how typical route planning jobs are divided from your experience and knowledge.
David C – I would imagine that this would be handled by a single group that runs point on the project of pulling capacity out of DCA.
I volunteer with Traveler’s Aid at IAD and it has been interesting to note the increase in the number of diversions daily from DCA to IAD that are not due to weather, emergency, etc.. My guess is that they result from aircraft running low on fuel due to a DCA shutdown for 1 hour around a VIP (e.g. Presidential) helicopter movement. Has AA given any thought to moving some mainline flights to IAD?
American Airlines could restart non-stop flights from ORD or MIA to Dulles airport as IAD is not slots controlled.
This seems to be a recurring event Friday evenings when the President goes to FL to play golf. DCA shuts down and flights are either being diverted or staying in the air until VIP movement ends.
They used to fly those two routes then dropped them. Right now they only fly DFW, LAX, and CLT from IAD.
I believe as part of the agreement for the last DCA building expansion, it was agreed not to use 145s and aircraft of that size, so there’s not much room to cut capacity from the RJs serving DCA now while maintaining current slots.
All are making a fuss about the airlines, government employees, and Trump.
However, Trump bailed out the airlines with $Billion$ of government money during COVID.
Now is the time to pay the Pied Piper back.
Government spending is out of control!!
As I noted shortly after the accident at DCA, the airport would have significant delays which would make it unusable as a connecting hub.
Demand is certainly down to/from DCA but the compounding effect is from AA having to de-prioritize DCA as a connecting point.