Frontier has been telling us that it needed to remake its operation, delving even further into the out-and-back model of basing crews and airplanes in one city and having them back home that night. This is a real change compared to what the airline did previously, and it’s something we can see quite well in maps.
I don’t have a perfectly clear view into all the bases that the airline may have closed, so please do keep in that mind. The two closures I do know are:
- The old Midwest Express base in Milwaukee moved down to Chicago in 2012, which then closed in 2022 before reopening this year.
- There was a base in Trenton, and there is no longer. There is now a base in Philly, and I don’t know if it moved there or there was a gap, but I will just assume it was continuous and consider those jointly a base in all maps.
With that in mind, let’s go back to March of 2019. At that point, there were five bases, I think:
- Chicago
- Denver
- Las Vegas
- Orlando
- Trenton/Philly (?)
Out of the airline’s 10,441 scheduled flights that month, nearly a quarter did not touch one of the bases. Here’s how that looked.
Frontier Non-Crew Base Routes March 2019
Map via Cirium
Let’s skip the madness of 2020 and roll into March of 2021. This is when change was beginning to occur. The Chicago base was getting ready to close in April and a Tampa base was to open in May. Miami had opened in March 2020. So, in March 2021 if we just add in Miami, we see that of the 11,368 flights, only 14.5 percent were outside a base.
Frontier Non-Crew Base Routes March 2021
Map via Cirium
The map looks a fair bit different. There is still that Florida focus, but South Florida is barren now that Miami is a crew base. And there is much less mixing between east and west networks. There is a small outpost of crews flying around the west, presumably from Vegas or Denver.
Just one year later, it changes again. Of the 14,435 flights in March 2022, 15.9 percent didn’t touch a base so the number grew slightly. Chicago is a distant memory and Tampa is in. Atlanta had also opened up in Oct 2021. You can see the beginnings of a network in the above map, but then looking below…
Frontier Non-Crew Base Routes March 2022
Map via Cirium
At this point, a whole lot of flying was touching Cancún with Phoenix and secondary Florida cities holding their own. The Caribbean network was growing as well.
It will be no surprise that in November 2022, a Phoenix base opened. So, by March 2023, only 12 percent of the 15,614 flights didn’t touch a base. Cancún shrunk, so that helped reduce the percentage too.
Frontier Non-Crew Base Routes March 2023
Map via Cirium
It was in 2023 when rapid changes began to unfold. In May 2023, DFW became a base. In March 2024, Cleveland opened. That really cut nearly everything in the west that didn’t touch a base. The leisure spots in Florida and the Caribbean continued to be there, but now only 6.7 percent of the 18,406 flights were not touching a base.
Frontier Non-Crew Base Routes March 2024
Map via Cirium
Then, more happened. Chicago reopened in May 2024, the same time Cincinnati opened. San Juan will be the next base to open in June. We can’t look at next March, because what’s filed isn’t reliable, but look at July 2024.
Frontier Non-Crew Base Routes July 2024
Map via Cirium
As of now, July has only 3.5 percent of the 22,244 scheduled flights operating outside of a base. You can see where those flights are. The West Coast lives! (So does Raleigh/Durham.)
My assumption is that Frontier will always have some non-base flying, because it wants to audition new places to eventually become a base. From this map, it looks like RDU followed by Ontario and then San Francisco are the current clubhouse leaders, but you can be sure the airline is watching Charlotte, New Orleans, Houston, and Portland (OR) as it starts to dip toes further in those places.
What you don’t see here is just how many routes have come and gone over the years. There have been many. But Frontier can now orient itself around its 13 bases and then venture out to hunt for new base opportunities. Operationally it’s very helpful, but commercially, there are tradeoffs. Still, Frontier seems to be a true believer that this is the way forward.
