As we all wait to figure out whether the Northeast Alliance (NEA) between American and JetBlue will survive in some form after last month’s devastating ruling, I decided to take a look at just how the airlines’ networks have been transformed thanks to the partnership. Today I’m starting with New York’s LaGuardia Airport where some of the most notable changes have been made.
Overall, we know that American took many of is poorly-used slots and leased them to JetBlue, allowing that airline to gain a larger foothold in a market where it barely existed before. At the same time, American repurposed its remaining capacity to complement JetBlue. For the most part, JetBlue could focus on the leisure markets or those with low fares and less premium cabin demand. American could work more in the business markets where a traditional product was more valued.
Dividing up New York like this was a major reason for the judge’s ruling against the NEA, but it’s also what American and JetBlue argue made it customer-friendly. So, let’s explore the changes.
I looked at Cirium schedule data for July 2023 and compared it to July 2019 for both airlines. Using Great Circle Mapper, I’ve compiled the changes which we’ll walk through below.
Let’s start by looking at the markets that had American service in summer 2019 but don’t have service from either airline today.
The largest of these markets is Philadelphia, and that is a good thing. Philly was an easy way for American to squat on slots when it had no better use for them. Now, with the addition of more Transatlantic flying from JFK, what little feed there was via Philly became even less important. There was a better use for those slots.
Jackson Hole is an outlier in that it was only flown on Saturdays when the perimeter didn’t apply. It was probably more of a novelty than anything. The other markets are low yield, mostly leisure markets that just don’t fit in a world where you aren’t just trying to scrape the bottom of the barrel to find demand.
The next set of markets are those that American also exited, but these are markets where JetBlue ramped up.
Boston, Nantucket, Orlando, and West Palm were already served by JetBlue but they all saw increases (though admittedly, West Palm saw very little increase). All but Boston are those leisure markets that JetBlue is better suited to serve. Boston is more about creating a more consistent shuttle-style product that always comes and goes to the same locations in each airport. First Class doesn’t matter much on that short hop, but consistency is important.
The other markets were all abandoned by American and picked up by JetBlue. Other than Atlanta, the rest of these all fit into that leisure bucket where JetBlue is a good fit. In Atlanta, I honestly don’t know what’s going on there. I don’t think American did well there before, and Delta owns that market. Maybe the idea was that JetBlue could perform a little better with more capacity and lower unit costs.
Not on this map is Fort Lauderdale. It wasn’t served by American before, but JetBlue jacked up existing seats levels by nearly 50 percent. Presumably this was a market JetBlue wanted to serve before but just didn’t have the slots to devote until now.
The next group of markets are those that were only served by American before, and that continues to be the case now. These, however, all have fewer seats than before the NEA.
Notice that American’s hubs all fall into this bucket. Why? With more of a focus on serving the local market in New York than before, it stands to reason that less connecting capacity might be needed. Those slots could be better used for other markets to provide local value instead of connecting options.
The other cities impacted are shorter-haul markets that tend to be more business-focused, but I suppose American doesn’t think it needs as much capacity as it had previously.
The next group of markets are those that also were only served by American before and continue to be served only by American. The difference is that these markets all have more capacity.
To be clear, many of these saw very small increases. Those that gained more than 1,000 seats in the month were Asheville, Cincinnati, Greensboro, Indianapolis, Memphis, Montréal, St Louis, Toronto, and Washington/National. Most of these are primarily due to upgauging from 50-seaters pre-NEA to 70/76-seaters after.
Next up we have the new markets that American entered that weren’t served by either airline previously.
These are additional business-focused markets that tend to be longer-haul than most other markets. The one exception to this rule is Hilton Head which might seem better under JetBlue but it can’t handle aircraft that big. Remember, American’s short-haul fleet was primarily on single-class 50-seaters before the NEA. Most of these are longer flights that would have been miserable on the 50-seater.
It’s just the next tier of flights where American thinks it can make a dent in Delta’s dominance now. In theory JetBlue’s New York presence should help American to sell enough on these flights to make them profitable, but I’m not convinced that JetBlue really adds all that much value.
The last group of markets are those that are new for JetBlue.
Most of these were unserved by American before. The only exception is Nashville which continues to be served by both. All of the rest of these markets were already served by JetBlue from JFK, so this is just making it more convenient to those in Manhattan.
The amount of change in this airport is fairly staggering. The range of destinations has changed with 7 low-yield leisure spots out at American and 7 other markets in at JetBlue. The bigger change is the shifting of capacity between airlines for that matter, fleets. Take a look.
July 2023 vs July 2019 American and JetBlue Departures by Fleet
Before the NEA, a quarter of the combined American/JetBlue departures were on 50-seaters with 22 percent on 70/76 seaters. Now the 50s are gone and it’s 42% on the larger regionals.
Meanwhile, larger narrowbodies (excluding the Embraer 190) now make up 47 percent, up from 33 percent before.
Is this a good change or not? The law apparently doesn’t care, but you can see why American and JetBlue tried to make the argument that this was good for travelers.
