Last week, Alaska announced three new routes from San Diego. It may not be a large add, but it does highlight just how much Alaska has changed in California since the pandemic has begun. San Diego has become one of the airline’s most important airports while other cities in the Golden State have fallen off.
Prior to the Virgin America merger, Los Angeles was far and away the most important city in California for Alaska. The airline had around 150,000 monthly seats in the market, all going from Anchorage in the north to México in the south, the only exception being the lone daily flight to Washington/National it had won in the beyond-perimeter sweepstakes. It barely served intra-California markets.
Alaska Departing Seats From Top Four California Airports
As the chart above shows, however, San Diego started to really separate itself into a clear second place from about 2013. Between Jun 2012 and the end of 2013, Alaska launched flights from San Diego to Boise, Boston, Fresno, Līhuʻe, Mammoth Lakes, Monterey, Orlando, and Santa Rosa. This was everything Los Angeles was not, allowing Alaska to expand its footprint into markets not anchored by its Pacific Northwest stronghold.
These new routes brought Alaska firmly into the intra-California market from San Diego, while also going all the way to the East Coast. More transcons would follow.
The Virgin America merger changed Alaska’s situation in California, as the airline had planned it would. That airline had major operations in both San Francisco and Los Angeles. When we look at the combined airline up until the pandemic, the story was a different one.
Alaska + Virgin America Departing Seats From Key California Airports
With Virgin America, San Francisco vaulted toward the top of the heap, and Alaska focused there more after the merger. Los Angeles remained as important, but you could see both San Diego and San Jose creeping up.
Then came the pandemic, and that turned everything on its head. I’ll keep that chart above, but then add on the post-pandemic world.
Alaska + Virgin America Departing Seats From Key California Airports
This looks like a very different airline. San Francisco was the slowest to recover after the pandemic, but it has been making up for lost time in the last year. It overtook Los Angeles as largest airport in California for Alaska in Jan 2022 and it has not looked back. In the May schedule, SFO is 23 percent larger than LAX.
Meanwhile, LAX has flattened at a level far lower than where it was pre-pandemic. There are definitely some gate constraint issues there as the Terminal 6 renovation proceeds and multiple gates remain off limits, but it’s more than that. I spoke with Brett Catlin, VP of Network and Alliances for Alaska, and he explained that with the costs to operate at LAX predicted to climb much higher in the coming years, Alaska has to think twice about what kinds of flying it can support at the airport.
I can only assume that would explain why Alaska just left the LAX – Fresno market. Spreading out those costs on a 76-seater on such a short hop is tough. That being said, Brett noted that they will be looking to grow more with mainline in particular once they get their gates and the customs facility back in operation. But Alaska is currently 25 percent smaller at LAX in May 2023 than it was in May 2019, and I have trouble seeing how it would get back to where it was anytime soon.
So it’s a recovery story in San Francisco and a story of shrinkage in LA and elsewhere. All of the California markets are an order of magntitude smaller than they were before the pandemic… except one.
Alaska + Virgin America % Change Departing Seats May 2023 vs May 2019 From Key California Airports
While one of the rising stars — San Jose — has fallen off dramatically since the pandemic, San Diego has only grown. For it to be above pre-pandemic levels as it is shows a stark contrast to the other California markets.
And Alaska continues to look for opportunity to grow there, as hard as that is in an airport with constraints.
Last week it announced it would add 1x daily to Eugene, an obvious opportunity in the airline’s heartland in the Pacific Northwest. But it also jumped into Washington/Dulles with 1x daily, something United did not appreciate. United will add a 4th daily in the market this summer with a monstrous 364-seat 777-200. Alaska has also filed a winter flight to Tampa.
It would seem that San Diego has proven to be the winner in California for Alaska, if you had to pick one. The airport is constrained, but Brett explained to me that they have the ability to add there more than you might expect. Of course, when the new Terminal 1 opens fully in 2027, there will be plenty of room, but Alaska isn’t waiting until then, and it doesn’t have to. Keep an eye on that corner of the country. The Eskimo likes what it sees.
