It happened more quickly than I expected, but Delta has now rolled out what appears to be its complete domestic schedule for July. I’ve spent some more quality time with Diio by Cirium data to examine what’s going on.
As was the case for June, I find it best to compare one week in the month in question to another week in the prior month. Year-over-year doesn’t really tell us as much. So, I looked at July 15 – 21, 2020 and compared to June 10 – 16, 2020. That’s the same week I used in the previous June vs May comparison.
Overall, we see a steady increase in weekly flights.
As you can see, after a 25 percent increase from May to June, Delta stepped it up with more than a 50 percent increase into July. We’re still at a fraction of where we should be, but hey, it’s progress.
Where is all this flying going? Well, much of it is simply re-building the network and overflying hubs. When Delta pulled back in April, it focused on serving cities primarily from the nearest hub. Now it’s re-introducing connectivity. Once again, it’s Great Circle Mapper time.
Forget about Anchorage since that’s just a summer seasonal add. The rest of these routes are primarily a re-strengthening of the Atlanta hub by overflying Detroit in the north and Salt Lake in the west. You’d expect to see that as demand returns to help restore better connectivity from these western and northern cities to places in the southeast. Chances are that these flights are more about connecting traffic patterns than about local nonstop needs.
Another hub that’s likely to be happy to see July’s schedule is Minneapolis/St Paul. When Delta pulled back in May, it really saw MSP hamstrung by being in the middle of the triangle between Atlanta, Detroit, and Salt Lake. Now it gets a lot of routes back. Many of those in the northwest are probably due to summer strength. Montana does well in the summer, and its status as a nearly-COVID-free zone can’t hurt.
Just a bit to the east, Detroit gets a couple routes back, but it doesn’t have much gain. It also didn’t lose as much as Minneapolis/St Paul in the first place.
In the northeast, Delta continues to bring New York back from the dead, primarily — but not entirely — from LaGuardia. Boston sees some love as well. But do note that much of the growth is in Florida during the peak summer season. This makes sense, and it will be interesting to see whether it all sticks around into soft September or if there needs to be a backtracking.
In the west, Salt Lake regains much of its flying to east coast cities, and that includes Florida. This helps those eastern cities regain connectivity to smaller markets in the west. Oh, and ignore Cedar City. That was halted due to construction that closed the airport for a brief time. It’ll be opening back up for the July schedule.
Other than these, the only new route additions are Los Angeles to Orlando and Seattle to Kahului, Kona, and Lihu’e. The Orlando route just seems odd. There must be a Disney corporate agreement or something else going on to move this route back into the schedule. I have a hard time understanding it.
Looking at frequencies on existing markets, I’m pleased to say that not a single route loses frequency compared to June. A whopping 234 out of 427 markets gain frequency, however. In fact, 48 markets gain at least 12 frequencies per week. In other words, much of the growth is about fortifying existing routes with better, more frequent schedules.
Of the 48 markets with high growth, nearly half touch Atlanta. Routes range from something like Asheville to Atlanta going from 1 daily to 3 daily flights up to some hub-to-hub routes like Detroit to Atlanta jumping from 4 daily to 7 daily.
Other hubs have a sprinkling of large increases as well. Most notably, I see JFK to LAX going from 2 to 4 daily and the LaGuardia to Chicago/O’Hare shuttle goes from 2 to 4 daily. Minneapolis to the west also sees solid increases.
This looks like an airline that’s slowly and methodically re-building its schedule, reconnecting hubs, and re-creating single stop connecting options that had been severed. It’s a modest increase that notably has fewer flights than American’s June schedule.
I look forward to seeing how this compares when United and American load their July schedules.
33 comments on “Delta’s Domestic July Schedule Has More Hub Overflying”
Based on this initial cut (they normally have a final cut), I tallied the following flight counts from OAG thread.
SEA – 76
LAX – 57
JFK – 36
LGA – 47
BOS – 23
RDU – 13
CVG – 12
DL is scheduling here around 27 to 28% of their pre-COVID schedule in terms of number of flights (1500 out of 5500 previously). The comments so far have indicated about running a 70% schedule by Q3 of 2021 and under 75% by end of 2021. Let’s say they get to a little more than 80% by end of 2022, 85 to 90% by end of 2023, close to 95% by end of 2024 and pre-COVID size by 2025. That seems a reasonable recovery schedule to me since TATL/TPAC will probably take that many years to recover. If we get a multi-year depression (which could happen), then we might get a scenario of 80% by end of 2022, 90% by 2025 and full recovery by 2027.
Anyhow, you are looking at about 2.5 times the number of flight for Q3 2021 and 3 times the number of flight by end of 2022.
That would bring these total to
SEA – 76 -> 190
LAX – 57 -> 143
JFK – 36 -> 90
LGA – 47 -> 118
BOS – 23 -> 58
RDU – 13 -> 33
CVG – 15 -> 38
by Q3 2021
and by end of 2022.
SEA -> 225 to 230
LAX -> 170 to 180
JFK -> 110 to 120
LGA -> 140 to 150
BOS -> 65 to 70
RDU -> 40?
CVG -> 45
out of this, the only adjustment I’d make is that maybe SEA won’t add back as quickly and I think LGA gets back to 250 by the time slot waiver ends and I’d imagine JFK gets added back soon too. Maybe the core hubs didn’t get cut down as much and won’t need to add back as many flights, but I also don’t see JFK/LGA having under 400 flights a day by the time slot waiver ends. Seems to me BOS/RDU/CVG are permanently downsized. And SEA will exceed its pre-COVID size before other stations. And possibly LAX too.
To me, they will not use all their JFK slots for a while after slot waiver is over. I can’t see how that’s possible running a 60 to 70% schedule for Q2 to Q3 next year. 717 base is going away. And according to DL forum, NYC is the most junior pilot base. Which means in the event of a furlough, mainline numbers will go down the most in NYC. All of which means a lot more regional flying out of NYC and I don’t see how you can increase that enough to make up for all the flights that are going away from fewer mainline pilots. Especially when DTW/MSP are going to be downgauging from mainline to RJ too. I can’t imagine LGA slots not being utilized. With reduced TATL demand, there just simply isn’t need for the within perimeter frequencies that are there for feed purposes.
@FC
interesting analysis but you are assuming that current rates of regrowth by hub will apply going forward and that is most certainly not going to be the case – for Delta or any other airline.
As CF noted, DL is rebuilding its core hub network first. There is no evidence yet that they are abandoning anything; they are simply not restarting some of the summer seasonal routes this summer which can’t operate long enough to gain any traction before they would have been pulled down 2 months later anyway.
As CF noted, the increases are heavily on rebuilding connectivity and to leisure destinations. With Disney set to open and people swarming onto beaches whether governments want them to or not, Americans are ready to travel. Yields will take time to recover and Delta management already said they are building their business plan around that reality.
We might see one more nice schedule increase in August that might carry DL through the normally slow fall season – and past 9/30. There might be more point to point routes such as from RDU and BOS and CVG added later this fall or early next year.
Maybe I’m missing something, but the numbers you & Cranky are showing or projecting appear to be a bit aggressive since there’s a high likelihood of a second wave of Covid. If that be the case, then airlines will need to roll back to about April levels & rebuild once it passes or a vaccine is in mass production therefore boosting confidence that flying is safe & masks aren’t necessary.
DL has one of the best management in the industry. They are dealing with the problem of how to remake their network when domestic travel is down at least 2 or 3 years, corporate travel will be slow returning and international LH travel will be down even longer than that. The network they went into this with is not necessarily the network that they will necessarily exit with.
So knowing that, my assumption has always been DL will be willing to sacrifice its weaker hubs and also focus cities. What I didn’t anticipate is their determination to keep SEA open. That to me seems unnecessary. But it appears SEA is a vital park of their network now. So I fully anticipated based on their moves that SEA will be back to pre-COVID level of flying by next summer. And I’ve also seen AS scheduling a ridiculous number of flights out of SEA for June. That to me indicates AS also plans to be back to pre-COVID level of flying out of SEA by next summer. neither side is giving an inch in a market with 30% less demand. That’s going to be a really bloody battle which will mean DL will have less resources for market share battles elsewhere.
I think they are also doing this due to their partnership with Latam and the AS/AA partnership from fallout of that. From that aspect and their recent move to continue commitment to Latam, I think it’s possible they will actually bring back those additional MIA flights next year.
Now the good news for DL is that I fully anticipate AA to back off at both NYC/LAX. I also anticipate UA to back off at LAX and be smaller at EWR. That means as they build LAX back to pre-COVID schedule sometimes next year, they will likely capture greater market share and face less competition. I only anticipate WN to be add back LAX at the same pace amongst the big 5 at LAX. I’m quite surprised that they haven’t added back things quicker to NYC. i fully anticipate them to be back to a 90% schedule at LGA by the time slot waiver ends with a lot less mainline flying.
But do they plan to add JFK slots? JFK slots are going to wide open when slot waiver is over. AA will probably be down to 40 flights a day, AS might cut JFK-LAX permanently. A lot of international carriers are probably going to be slow adding back. Let’s say they need to cut RJs flying by 30% like they have to do with mainline. Can they be using more RJs at LGA vs pre-COVID and also do the same at JFK? It’s not like DTW/MSP aren’t going to downgauge. There is only so many A220s around.
I just don’t see how BOS/CVG/RDU fit in the picture on top of that. I’m sure they will add back a good number of P2P routes over the next few quarters, but I don’t see stuff like EWR/ORD/PHL/BWI-BOS/CVG/RDU coming back in a low corporate demand environment. This is part of how you free up RJs for more important hubs.
@FC
it is fine for you not to see how anything will come back together at any airline. But assuming how you think it will come back together because you don’t see the strategic value that Delta saw before.
I supposed the internet would be a whole quieter but I would far prefer that anyone and everyone refrain from making assumptions about specific hubs and routes for any airline when the very future of some airlines is still very much at stake.
There simply is not enough traffic moving through airports for any airline or their core hubs to survive. When we start to get back to 30-40% traffic levels and there are clear signs that some hubs or focus cities aren’t being scheduled, then there is reason to start asking questions.
TO each his/her own but I have a feeling that a lot of these prognostications and assumptions will be proven to be wrong.
Well, there will be 25 to 30% fewer flights next Q3 for DL, so the cuts have to come somewhere. And I think we can agree certain hubs will come back sooner than others. I’m curious where your prognostications.
I have put out my opinion on pretty much every airline. I’m sure they are not all going to be right, but we will see.
I’m not sure you appreciate how concentrated DL’s route system (and the same can be said for AA and UA) around the top markets.
For 2019, DL’s top 5 hubs – ATL, JFK, DTW, MSP and LAX – represented 40% of DL’s system capacity by ASMs. Go down to the top 10, and you include all of DL’s domestic hubs and also include AMS and you get to 60%. BOS is the 10th largest airport for DL by system capacity.
BOS represented just 2.5% of DL’s system capacity for 2019 and was higher than RDU or CVG.
Note that these numbers include international capacity which will be reduced much more than domestic.
DL is the largest carrier in every one of its top 10 markets except for LAX SEA and BOS. They can easily reduce capacity less in their hubs – in part by eliminating a flight complex at every one of them – and easily reach their capacity cuts combined with international system cuts and still maintain their market share.
The notion that DL was getting average fares less than its competitors and therefore have less incentive to rebuild in its competitive markets such as LAX SEA and BOS is also not supported by actual DOT data.
The notion that DL has to whack its focus cities in order to achieve its capacity cuts is simply not supported by data – and is actually counter to it.
DL will rebuild its network around where it can make money – but so too will every other airline.
Your assumptions are that DL underperforms in competitive markets when that is not the case. You overestimate the size of DL’s operations in its most competitive hubs.
Both lead you to incorrect conclusions.
Oh, those are definitely support by actual DOT data that I’ve looked at. You just are refusing to admit it. But that’s kind of your downfall, you can never admit DL has trouble anywhere.
Bringing back capacity to core hubs slower than more competitive coastal hubs is about the stupidest thing a legacy airline could do in an environment where demand is down 30%.
I’m counting 382 departures out of ATL for July. That seems to be about 40% of their regular departure count. I guess this really fits in with your theory of cutting a little more at core hubs so they can keep the less profitable coastal at full strength.
Think about it 30% less RJ action. Core hubs will be downgauging to meet lower demand. LGA/LAX/SEA will all need more RJ and A220s to keep flight roughly the same as pre-COVID. Where are all these RJs all coming from? There is no downgauging left for non-hub routes out of BOS/CVG/RDU to meet lower demand.
DL is making significant cuts to its TATL operation. Quite a few cities are getting chopped. JFK is opening up. Yet, you think somehow they need to keep open a second TATL hub.
They already capture all the ff at CVG. They are even thinking of closing FA base at CVG. Yet, they somehow need to keep a large focus city going there.
Does RDU really provide anything to DL’s network to warrant flying stuff like ORD/EWR/BWI?
BOS/CVG/RDU will be downsized because they provide nothing additional to DL’s network. If DL really is going to make a strategic move, it will be to add a few more flights at MIA to support its future JV with LA.
feel free to post the DOT data, FC. all of it. including that DL had a very significant average fare advantage from multiple cities like ATL, DTW, MSP SEA SLC etc
and, as much as you find it impossible to agree with me, looking at schedules when current demand is less than 20% means nothing about future schedules.
you are free to jump to conclusions about tiny data points but I don’t think there is anything to see here…
again, the truth will become apparent in time… just not right now.
A lack of connectivity has been a huge problem, and has meant lower LF’s than there could’ve been. There’s a valid argument to be made about not chasing junk yield just because you can, but in some places, the flights simply don’t realistically connect to anything. The June schedule fixes that a little. The July schedule-assuming it holds- much more so.
I wonder how long Delta will be able to uphold their 60% capacity limit. The quicker traffic rebounds, the harder it will be for them to uphold this policy.
As long as they have employees and aircraft sitting idly (not completely the case for every workgroup, aircraft type or location), they can continue to roll out additional flights.
That said, the value of low load factors – and the shock of full flights from other airlines – will wear off.
For now, no airline is experiencing close to 60% system load factors so there is only a need to strategically add flights for connectivity as noted above plus maintain a competitive position where it is necessary to do so.
Especially because of the payroll grants and the realities of not being in chapter 11, they only need to really consider the marginal costs of the adds or cuts, besides this is delta hoping to protect its brand by letting others take the full flight hits.
As a Delta Medallion and senior executive at a Fortune 500 company relocating to Atlanta, I have switched over to the Southwest Rapid Rewards program and I am encouraging my peers to do the same. I just got fed up with Delta’s constant “vanilla” flavor and its over-reliance on technology over people. As a junior executive, I used to fly Delta exclusively (couldn’t stand Eastern). Delta used to be friendly, almost southern in its customer touch. The agents recognized me, even if not by name. But then the agents were replaced with some low-cost Delta subsidiary. That’s where the slippage started.
For the past decade or so, I travel almost exclusively on the company aircraft. But I have maintained status by taking many “bucket list” trips on Delta during that time. Each time, the once-friendly Delta employees have become more robotic. Fake smiles. Drab service. Rough handling of the aircraft in flight. “Firm” landings. Don’t get me started on the plum-colored outfits. Just so, so far from what made Delta so good for so long.
It was my wife who introduced me to Southwest, through her friends. The first time I flew on Southwest, it immediately reminded me of old Piedmont. Fun atmosphere. Genuinely friendly employees. Kids visiting the cockpit. All-time fantastic flight attendant banter. And they didn’t rip us off for baggage fees. It became quite clear very quickly that Southwest is a much greater VALUE than Delta (and, I suspect, any other major airline).
I have read that Delta will be around 30% smaller coming out of this. I certainly hope and encourage the Atlanta Airport Authority to allow Southwest more gates at ATL. Certainly, Southwest should be allowed all of Terminal C.
As evidence of my views, I read this morning in USA Today that Southwest has been named by JD Power the best airline in the country for BOTH short and long flights. I absolutely concur with that. Even though I can sit in First Class on Delta and eat a hot meal (which, I admit, is important on a long flight) and have a couple cocktails, Southwest’s customer service more than makes up for that. Once, I even saw a Southwest flight attendant give her home-made sandwich to an elderly customer who wasn’t able to get food that morning. I have never seen anything like that on Delta, and doubt I ever would.
Southwest gave up almost all of D South after the merger with AirTran so it’s not like they had any plans for Atlanta except to eliminate their closest competitor.
Thank you for your reply, Daniel. Even to an airline layman like me, it makes perfect sense that Southwest gave up its acquired Gates in Terminal D. It makes no sense from a customer service standpoint to have passengers changing terminals when you are running a comparatively small operation compared to your competitor.
But your post really helped me crystallize my thinking. Would I should have said is that ATLANTA NEEDS MORE COMPETITION. And since Southwest is by far the second-largest airline in Atlanta, combined with Delta’s shrinkage, it makes sense for them to have all the gates in Terminal C now. That still leaves Delta with the “T” gates, all of Terminal A, all of Terminal B, and substantial numbers of gates in the other terminals as well. Allowing Southwest to grow its business in Atlanta would enhance competition, potentially lowering prices in the market, benefiting ALL passengers, including those loyal to Delta, as I once was.
Although I agree Atlanta needs competition I’ve had the opposite experience, good, timely service with Delta along with friendly crews….not the friendliest crews on Southwest. I miss AirTran…wish SW had never bought them out. Of course most of my flights have been on Delta, maybe just bad luck of the draw on the few SW flights I’ve been on.
where did you come up with the idea that Delta is shrinking in Atlanta?
Delta has currently shut down the entire B concourse which is theirs as well as their end of C and their T gates. They undoubtedly have exclusive leases on those concourses.
E is also nearly completely shut down but it is common use. DL is disproportionately flying out of D very likely because they intend to keep those gates – which are also common use.
And there is no indication whatsoever that WN intends to add more gates. In fact, it also has blocked about 1/3 of its current concourse.
I believe I read a few weeks ago that Delta was planning around 700 flights per day in Atlanta compared to around 1,000 flights per day prior to the pandemic, Mr. Dunn. Is that incorrect information? Was it true a month ago, but superseded now? Will Delta not reduce its operations in Atlanta? If it does, it certainly will not need all those gates, will it?
It won’t need them in the short term but the reality is in terms of hubs ATL is one of the strongest hubs in the world and delta holds those leases on a long term basis, the fact they are operating from common-use gates that usually cost more suggests they are not willing to drop there hold on Atlanta at all, besides delta is probably going to add a bit of banking back into Atlanta for the medium term. By the way, have you actually looked at southwest versus delta pricing in Atlanta it’s very rarely significantly different southwest just has the marketing benefit of being the low-cost guys in the past, and figuring out airline marketing in the deregulation world first. I predict most of the cuts in the delta system will come from slashing and burning the focus cities because in my view they were born to be killed whenever times turn bad and will be rebuilt when things turn good again.
The JD Power awards are subjective and include “value” as a component. Legacy/full-service airlines will never win an award when value is considered one of the criteria. WN doesn’t typically undercut other carriers’ lowest fares but rather don’t offer the higher fares that legacy airlines offer and people obviously buy.
And, I am sure there will be people that will switch their preferences coming out of this but Southwest was a fraction of the size of itself at the time of the AirTran merger in Atlanta and they have recognized that there are better places for them to compete than in Delta hubs -and that is largely true for American and United hubs. That is why they have fought and continue to fight to have their little domain at Love Field all to themselves. They don’t want to have to compete directly against other carriers but especially legacy/network carriers in their hubs.
If you can accept WN’s smaller schedule and network in Delta or other legacy carrier hubs cities, go for it. Most corporate/business travelers remain loyal to legacy carriers in legacy carrier hubs as evidenced by the dominance of the market they all maintain.
Perhaps this recovery will change all of those proven industry dynamics but it is doubtful.
WN has largely been content to shift its SE focus west to Nashville.
Good evening, Mr. Dunn. It seems Atlanta will gain more much-needed competition as Southwest (according to my wife) late today announced new flights from Atlanta to Louisville, Omaha and Oklahoma City for later this year. It sure would be great to see Southwest take over ALL of Terminal C. I’m sure Delta doesn’t need those gates if it’s shrinking 30%.
I disagree with you concerning the JD Power and Associates Awards. They are quite prestigious across all sectors, including my industry. Correct me if I’m
wrong, but didn’t Delta hold the award for best long flight before “losing” it to Southwest? You seem a tad sour grapish in your snarky reply. Nevertheless, wouldn’t you agree it’s remarkable that an airline with no inflight meals, no Business Class, and certainly no fancy First Class recliner bed/cubicle would win the award for best long flight? That’s truly remarkable. That really goes to prove my earlier point: Southwest has the best people in the industry and they certainly overcame very long odds to win. Congratulations, Southwest!
MissTheMasters – Southwest did announce new flights from Atlanta today, but what it didn’t announce is that it’s also cutting others. I won’t be able to see a full picture into flights are loaded into Diio by Cirium this weekend, but already I see that Atlanta to LA and Oakland are both gone.
This looks more like a another reorg in Atlanta than actual growth.
Hello, Mr. Snyder! I’m certainly no expert on the airline business, but it seems unlikely to me that Southwest passengers in Atlanta will not be able to travel to LA or Oakland. Perhaps they will stop in Denver, Las Vegas or Phoenix, keeping the same flight number, continuing to LA and Oakland(???). My wife read me some new route info on Southwest. Are they adding flights from Phoenix to your home airport, Long Beach??
In this context, he’s talking about nonstop flights.
MissTheMasters – Yes, that’s right. You can still get there by connecting, but you could get to Lousiville, Omaha, and Oklahoma City by connecting before. So this is just trading some nonstop destinations for others. I don’t think it’s growth, but I’ll know more this weekend when the data is loaded. And yes, we are getting service from Long Beach to Austin and Phoenix.
MisstheMasters – Now that I’ve been able to dig in to Atlanta further, there actually is growth, so you are right. Here’s what I see when looking at Nov/Dec 2020 vs Nov/Dec 2019.
New market – Memphis/Oklahoma City/Omaha Increase frequency – Austin/Baltimore/Chicago/Columbus/Dallas/Ft Myers/Indianapolis/Jacksonville/Las Vegas/Louisville/Nashville/New Orleans/Orlando/Philadelphia/Pittsburgh/Raleigh/St Louis/Tampa/Washington(Dulles and National)/West Palm Beach Reduce frequency – Denver/Houston/LaGuardia/Milwaukee/Phoenix Exit the market – Boston/Cancun/Los Angeles/Oakland/Punta Cana/San Diego
Effectively, Atlanta loses international and western flying but gains in north-south domestic. Daily flights go from around 99 to 111.
you probably missed that LUV’s exec said even before this crisis that longhaul domestic flights don’t make as much money as short-haul and mid-continent flights.
LUV does not like competing in longhaul markets against other carriers and esp. legacy carriers where some passengers are willing to pay for advance seat selection and premium cabins. It is no surprise that LUV is slashing its ATL-west flights in favor of 1 hour flights. that is where LUV built its network and that is still where they get their best margins.
Oh look! Another route map! I think a great follow up would be, since you’ve posted just about every other possible iteration over the last 90 days or so, would be to show route maps of the following:
How many CRJ’s vs ERJ’s fly out of LAX, then and now
How many of each uses runway 24 vs 25
How many of them have odd vs even flight numbers
Break all down into weekday versus weekend departures.
Odd versus even departure hours
How many of each was photographed at Imperial Hill? Can we see a map of where the most commonly photographed planes were going? I need a Nov 2019 comparison vs May 2020. Would be very helpful.
How many of each are headed to DFW
And speaking of DFW…….
I wonder what kind of equipment is used for ATL-ANC? That is a long flight.
Dale – That’s a 757.
I’m sure they have run the numbers, but I’m almost surprised that DL isn’t running a 767 or similarly small widebody on that route, just for the added cargo capacity. ANC is a major trans-shipment hub for cargo going to or (mostly, these days) from Asia, but I guess even the crazy high cargo rates we’re seeing these days aren’t enough to make a widebody worthwhile on that route.
And it’ll be a long, empty flight. Ridiculous that they’re starting this route for summer 2020 as the cruise season has been completely cancelled.