For decades, Chicago’s O’Hare has been a two-airline hub. In one corner, you have hometown hero United. In the other, you’ll find long-time titan American. Since the pandemic, things have been tilting in United’s favor fairly dramatically and the implementation of a new gate allocation rule put American into a difficult place. Would it fight, tread water, or flee? With its latest announcement, American has made it clear that it will indeed fight… at all costs. And those costs are likely going to be substantial.
I’ve covered O’Hare’s gate allocation rules multiple times, so I don’t need to get into much detail. Post-pandemic, United was on its game. It realized that if it ramped up flying significantly in 2024 and American didn’t, it would get a whole lot more gates. It would also set off a long-term chain reaction that could very well have seen American turned into a minor player. So what happened in 2024 at American? Take a look.
American Daily Departures From ORD by Year
Data via Cirium
I know there’s a lot going on here, but that thick red line is the current 2026 plan. Everything past mid-May is still a placeholder, but the general level of flying shouldn’t change much. For 2025, you can look at the thin red line, which shows how American really didn’t get serious about serving O’Hare again until summer. Before that, flying was very low. That’s when American woke up and realized it was in trouble if it didn’t start using its gates more. Use ’em or lose ’em.
What was the real impact of this? Take a look at American’s percent of United departures at O’Hare, and you’ll see that the airline really took its foot off the gas post-pandemic.
American % of United Departures at ORD by Month
Data via Cirium
For several months, American was well below 70 percent of United’s departures. This undoubtedly made more economic sense in a vacuum, but if the airline wanted to have a long-term future at O’Hare, it never should have let this happen.
United CEO Scott Kirby has said American is losing $800 million a year at O’Hare and would have to de-hub the airport. That is certainly his wildest dream since that would give him an incredible mid-country hub with limited competition. It would be a northern version of American’s DFW hub.
That meant the ball was firmly in American’s court on how to move forward. There were shades of gray here. It didn’t just require scorched-earth fighting or tail-between-the-legs fleeing. But with American’s latest move, it is clearly choosing to go hard with that scorched-earth strategy.
American Daily Departures at O’Hare
Data via Cirium
American has already been building up its flying in summer toward the 500-daily departure level, and that’s with fewer gates than it had last year (though it did just pick up two of Spirit’s gates by paying millions). But this week, American pulled that summer schedule plan forward to mid-February. Oof. American has struggled in Chicago during peak times, but this? This is not a peak time.
Sure, you say. American must just be pumping up flights to warm weather spots for that spring break crowd, right? Not really. I mean, of course it is adding there, but it is adding everywhere. Below you’ll see the routes gaining at least 1x daily in Feb vs last year in blue, and routes that fly this coming Feb but didn’t fly last Feb in green.
Feb 2026 vs Feb 2025 maps generated by the Great Circle Mapper – copyright © Karl L. Swartz.
Orlando, Fort Myers, St Maarten, sure. But Richmond gets 2x additional daily alongside Cedar Rapids. Wichita, Pittsburgh, and Des Moines get an extra 11x weekly. That’s just the tip of the iceberg.
If American disputes having lost $800 million in the past, it sure is trying its hardest to reach that number. And why? Well, this is the textbook definition of strategic flying.
O’Hare’s gate utilization rules are pretty clear. Right now, it looks like those rules are doing what they were designed to do. This summer, the airport will see departure levels not seen in more than 20 years.
O’Hare Scheduled Departures by Month
Data via Cirium
That’s great news except that there is going to be a lot of red ink spilled. I also can’t imagine what this is going to do to airport congestion. Sure, O’Hare has enough runways now, but those taxiways turn into a parking lot on a bad day. I expect there will be a lot more bad days this year. That was a feature of “the old days” that I really didn’t need to bring back.
Despite all this, most everyone in the industry is probably rooting for American. They certainly like the idea of American spending its own money to fight the battle with United, keeping that airline distracted.
As for United, well, there is no world where it is going to just sit down and let American creep back into relevance. As CEO Scott Kirby says, he likes to pick fights where he has the best strategic position. That’s exactly what he has right here. United will lose money if it has to here. It has shown that even on small changes recently, like when it added O’Hare to Erie right after American did.
I’m not sure how long American plans to keep this up without seeing a significant improvement in profitability, but for now, get ready to celebrate Chicagoans. More flights and low fares are coming. Just try not to get too wound up about that whole “being on time” thing.
