Happy new year, everybody! Now that we are squeaking into 2025, it’s time to look at how many of your 2024 predictions came true and then think about what this coming year will bring.
As always, I’m just going to comment on the predictions that came true. If you took the opposite position on one of these, well, then your comment will appear there as well. But if you were on your own with an incorrect prediction, no need to shine a spotlight. You can find yourself in the Graveyard at the bottom.
Remember to leave your predictions for 2025 in the comments. I will as usual only consider the first prediction you make when I evaluate guesses next year. Anything after the first will be ignored in the review.
The Alaska/Hawaiian Merger
- Greg – When the AS/HA merger goes through, HA will get to move to T6
- Nick Bax – HA/AS’s merger is still on track to close in early 2025.
- Floyd Holder – Alaska and Hawaiian merger will be shutdown or one of the brands will go away!
- Festive Phil – Anticipating the completion of the Alaska/ Hawaiian merger, management announces/ leaks that some Alaska Embraer 175s will be repurposed to replace or supplement the aging Hawaiian Boeing 717 inter-island fleet. They will bear the Hawaiian name and colors.
- Eric C – Nothing significant happens on the HA/AS merger front. It won’t be approved yet (though it will) so the eventual fallout will be left for 2025 and later.
- IP – Both JetBlue/Spirit & Alaska/Hawaiian fall through, causing JetBlue to try again, this time purchasing Hawaiian, which is doomed to fail
- Jason – AS will announce it will not utilize HA widebodies outside of Hawaii-focused routes (so no international expansion from SEA), and will signal plans to phase out the Airbus fleet, ultimately spelling the end of HI-mainland flying that cannot be executed with Boeing narrwobodies.
- Fox – The Alaska/Hawaiian merger is approved and the two unified airlines pick a new name to better promote themselves as “not a regional carrier”.
- Douglas K Swalen – The Biden Administration will try to block the Alaska/Hawaiian acquisition. But Trump will (unfortunately) win election and the case will be dropped in 2025. I really hope I’m wrong about this one.
- Randolf – Alaska will kill hawaiian at some point
- Zhuo Andrew – AS/HA merger goes through and HA joins OneWorld. AS announces plans to deploy HA widebodies in SEA/PDX but DL remains committed to SEA.
None of us should be surprised that the topic with the most predictions this year was the Alaska/Hawaiian merger. What is surprising is that almost none of you got it right! But Zhuo Andrew looks like an oracle with his prediction, only failing on the widebodies to Portland bit but that’s hardly a ding. Also, Nick Bax, I’ll give you credit since it did stay on track but actually was completed earlier. And Greg, I assume we’re talking about LAX, but it’s too early to know for sure on that. (But I think you’re right.) Everybody else expecting failure, the end of the Hawaiian brand, or even Embraers in the islands… not happening.
The JetBlue/Spirit Merger
- SEAN – As the ULCC’s continue to struggle through 2024, the DOJ will reluctantly give the Spirit/ JetBlue merger the OK. This will include gate & other concessions involving mostly MCO & FLL. JetBlue will also announce two additional routes to Europe & or Canada.
- Emily – I kinda agree, but I think it will be BOS and FLL.
- Eric – B6,/NK gets blessed with some, but not terribly restrictive divestments. A gate or two here and there but I think the DOJ is going to let the market rationalize the network. Being said…the integration of the two will be painfully slow. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Spirit brand stuck around past 2027.
- Bricen – jetBlue/Spirit merger falls through completely.
- Jim M – I predict that the JetBlue/Spirit merger will be called off in the face of regulatory uncertainty, and Alaska will swoop in to buy Spirit. Alaska, Hawaiian and Spirit will continue to operate under their own brands, with a common FFP.
- CoolBlue – JetBlue/Spirit Acquisition will go through, but they will have to divest some assets; however, nothing too crazy.
- Paul A – Jet Blue & Spirit’s merger finally gets approved, but the 2 airlines will loose alot of money in the process.
- LGB Jarvis – Sun country airlines will merge with frontier or allegiant airlines after the JetBlue/spirit airlines merger is approved.
If one merger wasn’t on your mind, the other one was. Remember the JetBlue/Spirit merger? Well, most of you got that one wrong too. You were right Bricen, but it didn’t really fall through. It was blocked. I’ll still give credit there. Jim M, well, half credit for the first part? There was a lot of optimism that DOJ wouldn’t scuttle this deal, but the courts felt differently.
The Fate of Breeze
- Kenneth – Despite someone’s failed prediction of Breeze (or Avelo) going belly up last year, I do believe we will see Breeze cease operations in 2024, bringing Neeleman’s “Midas’ touch” to an end. I’d love to be in the graveyard next year for this one, but their financials do not appear good based on the limited data available.
- John G – one of Avelo or Breeze will die.
- E – Breeze goes under and a U.S. legacy scoops up their A220s — most likely, Delta.
- SAN Greg – Breeze, unfortunately, will cease operations.
- Dolphin – Breeze goes through some strategic changes: announcing service to Western Europe and the Caribbean on the A220, initially from BDL, while announcing an early retirement for the Embraers and cutting many small Allegiant-style leisure markets in their network.
- Yo – Breeze and New(ish) Pacific go belly up, Avelo gets bought out by…??? Somehow, Eastern survives.
- Brian – Breeze Airways ends the year with a smaller route-map, deferred aircraft deliveries, and is relying on their charter operation to keep Breeze out of “Airlines We Lost 2024.”
- MCOFlyGuy – Breeze will cease operations or be purchased by another airline for their 220’s.
- Charles Nicholson – My prediction: (1) Breeze Airways will launch a Part 135 subsidiary or (2) a standalone Part 135 carrier will emerge. In either case, it will connect relatively large markets.
I must admit, I’m surprised at the number of predictions that involved Breeze. There must have been some news at this time last year that got you all thinking about the airline, but your doom-and-gloom beliefs did not pan out. Only Yo gets some credit here, and that’s not for Breeze. That’s for New Pacific going under, at least the scheduled part. And those of you who dragged Avelo into this? No way… they’re making money, at least in some quarters. I know I said I wouldn’t highlight failures, but there were so many Breeze predictions that I had to talk about this.
Canadian LCCs and 777 Partners
- ChuckMO – I predict that one of the Canadian ULCC’s will end scheduled operations next year.
- YEG – I bet two of them fail to survive the year. Flair and Jetlines.
- rollie325 – Either Flair or Bonza will stop operations permanently, for reasons possibly attributable to the wishes (or outrageously greedy aircraft leases) of 777 Partners.
- PoolNoodle – Bonza will collapse 1st half of this year. Will they take down Flair with them?
Should you get credit ChuckMO, if TWO of the Canadian ended scheduled operations? Heck yeah you should. YEG, you got one of them right, but Flair is still around. It’s Lynx that’s gone. Meanwhile down under, rollie325 and PoolNoodle were both right that Bonza died, but Flair is still in the game.
Air India Roars or Maybe Not Yet
- Hammer – Air India will announce a new US destination next year, likely LAX or IAH that will be flown with an a350.
- Angetenar – Air India announces LAX and BOS
- Harsha – Air India uses its new A350s to launch DFW/IAH/LAX/SEA (BOS uses a 788) and steals market share from IndiGO because of their continuing P&W issues.
- Dan P – Air India in 2024 will begin flights from DEL to LAX and BOS. AI will also announce DFW, IAH and YUL before year’s end (tho they could begin in 2025), as well as upgrading IAD to daily A350s.
As Tata continues to try to turn Air India into a functioning entity, some of you made predictions. Hammer, you are probably correct on LAX but until the schedules are filed, I believe nothing. Angetenar, you’re probably half right. And Harsha, we’re still waiting to see schedules filed beyond JFK and Newark in the US on the A350. Things do not move quickly at that airline.
Will JSX Survive?
- Angry Bob Crandall – JSX will double their cities in 2024
- Marietta – JSX will enter the EAS and SCASD arena.
- Chris L – Bowing to pressure from the legacy carriers and ALPA regarding “abuse” of its Part 135 operating certificate, the US government will force JSX to downgrade service to less than daily on all routes or undergo conversion to a Part 121 operator. While JSX will hang on beyond 2024 with this new model, it will ultimately doom it.
- BusBlitz – JSX stays allowed to fly, and Parts 135/380 don’t get “fixed” or changed.
Lots of talk about JSX last year, but really, not much happened this year. BusBlitz, you were the winner on that. It did grow but not an enormous amount. Salt Lake was the big addition beyond mostly connecting dots. This is entirely in the “wait and see” camp. Nothing has been done on Part 135/380 yet, but something will eventually happen.
The Delta Fleet
- Tim Dunn – Delta will be the first US (and western) airline to have a mainline fleet of 1000 aircraft and will overtake Emirates as the largest operator of Airbus widebodies.
- A220HubandSpoke – Delta will place a sizable order for at least 100 A321Neos and at least 50 A350s/A330-900Neos.
- VictorKilo – By the end of 2024 Delta will have plans to increase the number of A223 aircraft in their fleet, through assuming orders and/or built aircraft from Breeze.
- Austin787 – Delta announces order for additional A350 aircraft.
It wouldn’t be possible to have one of these without a year-end prediction for Delta. And in fact, we have two. Austin787, come on down. You’re a winner since back in January Delta ordered 20 more A350s. That was the only order this year from the airline that I can find. And no, Delta does not yet have 1,000 mainline aircraft. It did barely pass Emirates as the largest operator of Airbus widebodies even though I don’t know why that matters. But based on current orders, Emirates will win that one in the end.
Delta in Austin
- Tory – I’ll predict DL’s continued expansion at their AUS ‘focus city’ on a long-term path towards a future hub to the extent they can get gate space. They may even come to some agreement with the airport for future gates, maybe even their own terminal if they want to be bold (unlikely).
- stogieguy7 – DL will add even more flights/destination from AUS than those announced in December;
- Ian L – Due to lackluster range on the A321XLR, AUS does *not* get any new TATL/TPAC service announced in 2024, and WN hits 40% passenger share multiple months out of the year as DL’s expansion in AUS doesn’t compensate for AA’s retrenchment.
We three winners here! Delta did indeed grow in Austin, Tory and stogieguy7, as American pulls back, but the chance of this turning into a hub is slim to none unless a whole lot more terminal space comes available. For now it will continue to serve a role as a focus city, and a growing one at that. And Ian L, yes, Austin failed to get any new long-haul flying this year as Southwest continues to improve its position.
The Air Traffic Control Debacle
- AirlineFlyer – 2023 was awful for ATC in the Northeast, but I predict summer 2024 will be so bad that it’ll made 2023 look like pre-COVID times. FAA will require, not ask, that airlines reduce their schedules into JFK, LGA, and EWR, but all they’ll do is cut insignificant slot squatting routes at 7am that shouldn’t exist to begin with.
- MeanMeosh – A major winter storm in late January or February causes an extreme operational meltdown, followed by the ATC meltdown in the summer predicted by AirlineFlyer, finally forcing the DOT and/or Congress to adopt an EU 261-type delay compensation scheme.
I’m surprised more people didn’t talk about this. AirlineFlyer, well, yeah, they did ask airlines to reduce flying but the extra push this year was thanks to the complete and total inability to deal with the transition of Newark’s airspace down to the Philly center. There were not massive meltdowns, at least not because of ATC. But if you live in or fly to the New York area, you’re still getting hit hard with no real relief in sight.
Boeing, the MAX 10, and More
- O’Hare Is My Second Home – After the 737 MAX 10 gets certified, United’s first flight of it will be DEN – EWR.
- Greengsg9 – The B737 MAX will get MAX10 certified by the FAA, but certification will be denied by EASA/CAAC without a cockpit alert system
- 727200 – 777X certified (finally) but Boeing bungles something else massively.
- Evan – Boeing finally gets a management change.
A whole lot happened at Boeing this year, but most of the predictions did not come true. The MAX 10 wasn’t certified, and neither was the 777X. But good on you Evan, because you got the management change right. Kelly Ortberg has been enjoying his trial by fire as new CEO, no doubt.
Labor Trouble
- Brian Gasser – Under unions, (UA, AA, and WN) FAs do not none walk out and strike. At least 2 of the 3 reach a contract settlement.
- CallScheduling – Flight attendants’ turn. Of the big 4 that are unionized (WN, AA, UA), all will have ratified FA contracts this year while DL will take those contracts into consideration with their FA group to keep unions off property.
Brian Gasser, that’s a win. American and Southwest have settled with their flight attendants on a new contract. Only United remains. As for Delta, well, it keeps trying to fight off a union, but this one has yet to play out in this round.
ULCCs Under Pressure
- SEASFO – The environment of high labor and declining US domestic demand will persist in 2024, resulting in at least one US ULCC declaring bankruptcy or being acquired.
Good call, SEASFO! As we know, Spirit has filed for bankruptcy protection.
BA and Tech Do Not Mix
- BRMM – BA will have an IT meltdown that substantially delays operations.
This kind of seems unfair, BRMM, because it was always a given. Sure enough, BA had an IT meltdown. But hey, the one in November was proclaimed to have been shorter because of all the tech work that BA has done. Congrats?
Philippine Heads to Seattle
- MK03 – Will PAL finally launch their new US destination that they’ve long been rumored to be launching in 2024? Will they finally launch Seattle after all this time? My guess is… yes?
Yes, MK03, yes they will. This service launched in October, so that is a bullseye.
United in Asia
- Cody C – United makes an even bigger push into east asia. They restore even more China/HKG service, add a little extra NRT since they can’t get more HND, net a new gateway to ICN via the oz/ke merger, and even add BKK as a new destination after the MNL experiment proves successful.
Cody C – Yeah, that did happen to some extent. If you had stopped after the first sentence, it would have been a true win with all the new service that has been added through the renewed Narita hub plus a little more China. But no Bangkok is there, and Incheon will be hurt by the Korean merger but just not yet.
Starlux Grows
- Johosofat – Starlux will finally plug one of the most glaring holes in its network by starting flights to Hong Kong.
It most certainly did, Johosofat. It started in July.
The Schiphol Flight Cap Returns
- Simon Blackburn – the Schiphol flight cap and passenger levies more generally will be back on the agenda – not sure we’ll see them introduced en masse in 2024 but can see there being progress towards them despite opposition from IATA etc.
I wish I could just dump this in the graveyard, Simon Blackburn, but I cannot. Schiphol is back with a proposed flight cap for 2025 set at 478,000.
IndiGo Gets Wide
- VBurj76 – Indigo orders Widebodies
It sure does, VBurj76. It ordered 30 A350s, in fact.
Frequent Flier Programs Get Tougher
- southbay flier – Seeing that Delta’s profitability isn’t affected by their new harsher requirements for elite status, AA, United make similar moves.
This isn’t an area I pay close attention to, but sure enough it does appear that United has jacked up its thresholds to qualify.
Is Riyadh Air on Track?
- KinkyKuwaiti – Riyadh Air will continue to receive aircraft but fail to actually get an AOC and begin passenger flights. Tony Douglas is then forced out and finds his way to Emirates upon Tim Clark’s 2nd retirement announcement
I guess this is true in that it has not gotten its AOC yet, but it’s still in progress and there has been no real public drama. So, partial credit, KinkyKuwaiti.
A Last Minute PIT Victory
- Ron – One of the big four starts nonstop flights between LAX and Pittsburgh (again). Most likely Southwest, or else United.
You just snuck in for the victory on this one, Ron! American only announced it a week or two ago, but sure enough, it will be back on the LA – Pittsburgh route next year.
The Most Obvious Predictions Come True
- JPH – No progress will be made extending PATH train service to EWR.
- Greg M. – The people mover at LAX will not begin operations on schedule in 2024.
I know your prediction is true, Greg M, since further delays have pushed the people mover out to early 2026. And the PATH train extension? I don’t follow this as closely, JPH, but I don’t see anything suggesting there’s been any progress. I’m sure these are shocking to everyone.
The Graveyard of Failed Predictions
- Luca – QF will screw up once again, probably another ‘selling tickets for cancelled flights’ or labor problem, which leads to a public boycott of the airline. ZL will capitalise on this by rebranding to Ansett, the only large australian airline where we have mostly good memories about. (Sorry if this counts as two)
- Kevin – Delta shutters SEA as a hub, and pares it down to ~75 flights/daily.
- GS in PDX – Airbus will launch the A220-500 to compete directly with the 737MAX8
- ejwpj – The remains of MH370 will be found!
- Ayesha Nicole – Considering all that happened this year, there will be a fatal accident involving a US airliner in 2024.
- DaBluBoi – PIA will survive and both it and SriLankan will be privatised with significant stakes being held by GCC carriers
- Seanny – As the trend in corp design is to bring back the great iconic logos of the 60s, 70s, and 80s.. United will finally bring back the Tulip.
- Outer Space Guy – One airline will try nonstop scheduled service between the Phoenix area and Liberia Costa Rica (MRLB), even if it is not daily service.
- JetXMedia – Alaska will drop SFO – JFK and SFO – BOS transcons
- Alan Bowen – Norse Atlantic will cease all operations within the first 6 months of 2024
- HP-OGish – JetSmart Argentina fleet doubles in size in 2024
- CraigTPA – Porter will add US destinations from Vancouver – initially SFO and LAX, possibly SAN by year’s end.
- Rohan Anand – WN will announce DFW ops with plans to also include international service (starting with CUN).
- Bonnie Darkey – I predict that by August American will declare bankruptcy again. Their shortsighted push away from corporate fares and focusing on leisure fares will come to haunt them and they will need to reorder. Expect some strange suiters coming out of the woods for their reorganization
- nobody – My crazy prediction for next year is that we see at least one direct flight between West Africa (Lagos, Accra, etc.) and South America. Though, this will be less crazy if/when Nigeria joins BRICS.
- David C – United will announce major shifts in aircraft deployment plans for the regional carriers as E145s and CRJ200’s get official retirement dates.
- Carl – Mexicana will cease operations soon after the new President takes over in Mexico.
- One Trippe – LH Group snatches up TAP, IAG takes both UX and LO, AFKL complicates political dynamics with the newly all but acquired SK
- IPod – ANA will restart SJC-TYO, likely as HND, while Zipair will expand their US footprint to SEA. Both will operate with 787s
- Jim Kingdon – After years of talk, 2024 will be the year that train travel makes a material dent in short haul European flying, due to cheaper train tickets and new capacity. Most airlines will do fine, however, as long-haul will be only bolstered by this trend.
- Jamie – Silver Airways would cease operations. This would give Current Aviation LLC an opportunity to pick up their AOC and ATR fleet to begin flying to unserved secondary and tertiary US O&D markets that are under 450 miles…bypassing legacy network hubs all while offering far lower trip costs than the likes of Breeze, Avelo, Allegiant and Frontier.
- Pilotaaron1 – There will finally be meaningful discussion and reform to the 1500hr rule.
- Brian G. – I predict a major US regional airline or a trade group will lobby the FAA/Congress to allow for a training pathway allowing first officers with less than 1,500 hours into the cockpit.
- Jonas – New CO²/aviation fuel taxes will make airlines run away from/fight Germany and its government about “unfair competition” and other “wah-wah” by airlines (looking at you Ryanair).
And now, back to you. What will happen in 2025? Let’s hear it in the comments.
116 comments on “Reviewing Your 2024 Predictions and Making Your 2025 Picks”
2025 prediction: Bastian and/or Hauenstein out at DL.
Bold! If I thought any Big 3 mgt would be on the hotseat, it would be AA!
Fair point, but the Widget is overdue for a palace coup.
They’re not getting any younger… however, many people (including employees) have been speculating this for years now, and it hasn’t happened
No time like the present!
Bastian will turn 68 in early June, making him the oldest CEO of the big 4, and most likely to simply retire – if he chooses to do so. He will complete 27 years of service at DL in 2025 and 9 as CEO, the same as Hauenstein as President. Hauenstein is about 4 years younger than Bastian, about the same age as Bob Jordan, is nearing 20 years with Delta and has undoubtedly dreamt about becoming CEO which he probably will be for a few years. Both orchestrated the NW merger and DL’s transformation post merger; even if both retire, it is very unlikely that there will be major strategic changes at DL which still sits at the top of the US and global airline industry.
Glen has surely had opportunities to go elsewhere. He’s a commercial guy at-heart. Why would he want to burden himself with Ops and financial headaches when he’s still overperforming on revenue premiums and corporate market share vs peers? Life is good for Glen
to be clear, I agree with you, See_Bee, do not think DL needs any major changes, and that they won’t happen EVEN IF both Bastian and Hauenstein left which I don’t think will happen.
I do think Hauenstein is the heir apparent IF Bastian chooses to retire but both are career DL employees with Bastian having the greater age and tenure but both having achieved enormous amounts in their careers already – and I don’t think either are through yet.
and, I would bet that Bastian sticks around at least through the 100 year celebrations whenever they occur.
There will be at least 1 airliner (of 50 seats or more) written off due to an an attack on the airliner (that occurs while the airliner is airborne) by a governmental, quasi-governmental, or terrorist group in 2025.
I really, REALLY hope I’m wrong on that, and hate to predict tragedies, but that’s the first prediction that comes to mind for 2025.
Couldn’t be happier to have been wrong about Breeze.
One major us airline launches a basic business/first class product. The product removes lounge access and offers limited flexibility. Gate upgrades allow for it to be purchased on the day of.
With both NK (Spirit) & now 3M (Silver) in chapter 11, my prediction is that at least one of these two converts to chapter 7 and goes under.
Risky, but here I go:
UAs flight to Dakar, Senegal fails miserably. The first clue will be the low load factors (on a directional basis).
Southwest, still operating under Elliot Management’s shadow, continues to expand beyond its long held sole aircraft type and announces that it will add additional Boeing planes, starting with the 737-900.
Huh? Southwest adding the 737-900 would be a new fleet type, true, but would not “expand beyond its long held sole aircraft type” because it’s still a 737, which the airline has in spades, currently flying the 737-700/800/MAX 8 and waiting on the MAX 7. What are you trying to say here?
That they will announce that they are going to add other aircraft types beyond just the 737-700 and 800. They are looking more and more like a lagacy airline (assigned seating, codesharing) and Eliott still looms. Their capacity is limited now – maybe they’ll even consider smaller planes to service smaller areas from their “hubs.”
1. Late in the year, AA makes a go with DOT/DOJ at adding AS to the AA/JL JV (likely excluding Hawaii-Japan flights) but likely does not try to add Alaska to the Atlantic JV. Adding AS to the AA/QF JV is a long shot in 2025 since Hawaii isn’t included in the current AA/QF JV and adding AS would require adding Hawaii flying to the JV, otherwise AS doesn’t fly in the JV markets.
2. Longshot. Porter announces an intent to join OneWorld sponsored by BA.
3. AS announces late winter 25/26 SEA-AKL
4. By Q4, Delta absolute marketshare in SEA drops YoY by 1-2 points (by ASMs). Given AS longhaul flying plans, this doesn’t really seem that out there.
5. DL drops SEA-TPE or goes seasonal.
6. Gol announces an intent to drop AA as a partner in favor of United/Avianca
7. IAG makes a go at TAP.
1: The DoT (as per official dockets) were more happy to have both Continental AND United in the same joint venture as ANA, and were still considered separate entrants after the CO/UA merger was announced.
4: That’s a given. AS market share has slightly increased since the DL build-up. DLs presence came at the expense of UA and WN.
6&7: AA (confusingly) holds a stake in Gol (G3).
Seeing as UA miserably failed at their attempt to create a Latin America joint venture (announced in 2017, still doesn’t exist), I don’t see G3 joining them.
IAG said they wanted to invest in a Latin airline group, which is probably Avianca group. IMHO you’re far more likely to see AV partner with AA.
To further spice it up, Azul and Tap Air Portugal have a close bond. If IAG goes for TP, there’s a strong case for dragging Azul (AD) along, who themselves may merge with Gol.
So, there is a realistic scenario where Avianca, Azul, Gol, & Tap all join Oneworld.
Per 6&7,
Though Gol has announced how they’ll exit chapter 11 (via Abra), I don’t believe they have exited officially yet and I have to imagine AA’s equity share in Gol will not be there post bankruptcy. But I have not been following that closely.
This was the last AA Q on the topic:
” we could lose the value of any such investment or experience significant operational disruption, which is a risk that we are subject to with respect to our investment in and commercial arrangements with GOL in light of its commencement in January 2024 of bankruptcy proceedings in the U.S. Federal Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York.”
To be clear, I haven’t kept up with what GOL has said about the AA equity since their announcement about exiting with help from Abra.
United DOES still have equity in Abra/Gol/AV. I don’t recall the specifics of how their “accidental” controlling stake a few years ago was converted to what it is now and United’s SEC filings (most recent Q & K) don’t go into detail except to say
“United has equity investments in Abra Group Limited, a multinational airline holding company… (and others)… None of these investments have readily determinable fair values. We account for these investments at cost less impairment, adjusted for observable price changes in orderly transactions for an identical or similar investment of the same issuer. As of December 31, 2023, the carrying value of these investments was $401 million.”
All that to say, United strikes me as having the leverage with Abra though AA would likely be the better network partner for Abra.
Per TP, I only said IAG would try for TP ;) I’m not sure they’ll be successful. The value of TP and Abra to IAG/AA and LH/UA seems rather clear and LH/UA strike me as having the upper hand given TP’s current alliance and United’s Abra equity stake. AF/KL’s future seems like it will be with LATAM longterm, likely integrating UX in some small way.
Just pure fun speculation from me.
UAL cancels UBN-NRT flight soon after winning sexist new route award.
New BKK-North America flight will be announced. It may make a stop in route with a fifth freedom segment.
Boeing still can’t get MAX10 certified resulting airlines changing their plans accordingly. This will be the topic of the AirShow twice and Cranky flier blog 4 times at least.
– United launches SFO-SGN or SFO-BKK along with LAX-SIN
– Delta announces its business class unbundling
– Boeing finally delivers 787s to Lufthansa and American following long delays
– Spirit does not turn things around following Ch. 11
Looking back at my prediction, I think I was a year early. So I’m putting it up for this year.
There will finally be meaningful discussion and reform to the 1500hr rule.
It’s the trump administration right? So let’s add some trumpy things to happen
1) at least one ariline will get caught up in a “pay to play” fracas in which they are carrying favors with administration officials over slots at DCA
2) Elon Musks DOGE will attempt sone retribution at the FAA which will have some blowback and endanger ATC efforts which will force him to back off it.
3) (a fun one) HEF will get it’s first scheduled commercial flights in 40 years (probably a ULCC)
AA – Announces 787-8 / -9 reconfiguration with Flagship Suites and more 787-9 orders to replace 772 / A320 retirements dates
AA – Expands domestic service and some added int’l to LAX / JFK to top 35 business markets and ORD returns to growth
DL scales back int’l flying more out of LAX and SEA
Avianca switches from Star/UA to oneworld/AA includes GOL
JAL/AA JV adds PHX
Southwest will be able to get some of there planes configured. Air Wisconsin will start servicing more flights for AA.
SAS will announce either CPH-SLC or CPH-LAS, but probably not to start before 2026.
1. Ed out at DL
2. Spirit and Flair fold or folded into another entity
3. The second Las Vegas airport gets delayed (Primm)
4. Lambert begins the rebuilding of their terminals
5. Frontier becomes a target of a merger
6. Southwest reserved seating gets delayed
I agree with #2 & #5.
either UA or AA announce formal retirement plans for their 777-200/ERs
DOGE will shake up the FAA, including potentially privatizing (or semi-privatizing) ATC, as in many other countries.
DOGE will not be an official government agency and will not have oversight of governmental agencies. It’s effectively a consulting firm.
How it happens might vary from what you wrote but I would guess that 2025 will be the year that there is enough pressure on the FAA to fix its basic functions or face dramatic consequences.
The amount of ATC delays due to staffing needs to come down in 2025.
The number of near accidents needs to be zero.
Airline passengers pay for services which the FAA is simply not reliably delivering and that needs to change.
separately, I think the part of your 2024 prediction about DL signing a contract with AUS for a number of new gates was probably a year too early. No one appears to be interested in that prediction for 2025 but you should probably get credit when DL does announce it is taking a chunk of gates at the expanded AUS and presumably some incremental gates in the interim.
AS quickly takes advantage of AA’s weak spots by announcing Europe flights with 787
From Seattle or LAX?
* Frontier develops their version of The Big Front Seat and merges with Spirit
* Hawaiian starts non-stop DC/BWI flights using their 787
*Southwest announces their first non-737 planes with a deal for 100+ A220’s due to continued 737 Max delivery delays
1. Rumors swirl here & elsewhere that Alaska will acquire JetBlue even as the current merger with Hawaiian flies on.
2. LAX scrambles to complete necessary projects ahead of olympic preparations.
3. At least one new airport terminal is announced & begins in 2026.
4. The new western Sydney airport is delayed as a result of construction issues, but is resolved quickly.
I’d have to listen again, but I think during the Airshow interview with Ben Minicucci they were talking about having lie flats that could compete for the premium red-eye market to JFK, and Ben agreed they intended to compete with those out of SFO and LAX. They don’t and won’t have enough slots to ever compete for JFK out of anywhere more than SEA short of a merger. So maybe? I hate the idea of competing with Delta in more hubs, having a FLL hub that adds little value to the west coast operation, and having another brand that has more value existing than not. But who knows, maybe it’ll happen.
More consolidation in the North American (ULCC) airline business – merger(s), bankrupcy(ies), takeover(s)… Airlines taking full advantage of the Trump DOT/DOJ.
If one of the ULCCs is taken over by one of the majors and overall fares rise because of it, the Republicans can kiss the midterms goodbye.
United inexplicably announces 2 more trans Atlantic flights from Denver (and officially launches a timeline for a Polaris Club), causing already bruised egos in larger metro areas like Houston to explode.
Breeze will buy Spirit or most of it. Neeleman can’t watch on the sidelines. 40-50 of their A320s sold/returned.
1 or more of Spirit, Frontier, or Sun Country will go out of business.
1) Spirit won’t make it through 2025. At least, not in it’s present state. Prediction one: Spirit is bought. And the most likely buyers are Frontier and United. AA, WN and DL don’t need it, Jetblue can’t afford it; AS has their hands full. I could see UA/F9 divvying up the aircraft and gates with UA favoring those nice gates in Florida (like FLL) where UA would love to be a player again. The Airbus A320 series a/c also makes such a purchase attractive for either.
2) UA adds more flights out of it’s reborn NRT hub (which is advantageous because Russian airspace will not be reopening to US airlines anytime soon).
3) LH Group adds TAP to their portfolio (and perhaps some other throwaway Lufthansa Explore and Discover City airline too).
United announces at least 1 new TPAC/TATL route from IAH that will launch in 2026
I would bet my left kidney that they don’t
1. Southwest continues to fly the miserable 737-700s (you know, the ones that were supposed to be replaced 3-4 years ago), primarily because of Boeing’s long history of missteps.
2. San Diego’s new Terminal 1 will NOT open on schedule (scheduled for Sept 2025). I hope I’m wrong on this one. To save face, they might open a subset so that they don’t get too much egg on their collective faces.
DEI programs are dropped at all major US airlines.
United’s geopolitical woes ease but continue to limit growth. They return to TLV but only from EWR (no IAD/ORD/SFO), AMM returns, and (despite much bluster) without new developments in Russian airspace access they end the year as they started it only flying EWRDEL to India.
1. Ed is out at DL and assumes the top role at AA.
2. Sun Country announces merger agreement with Avelo.
3. Delta agrees to acquire the A220 assets of Breeze; effectively shutting them down.
4. 2025 is a stabilizing year for Southwest as they work to transition the passenger experience. I don’t think Elliott is through with them though.
5. United pulls back on its flashy expansion plans for Asia and parts of Europe and Africa.
6. Increased talk of terrorism in the US and Europe impacts international travel.
7. AA continues to build back in Chicago and some in Los Angeles (with the opening of additional gate capacity).
8. Delta continues its tremendous premium marketing push but the reality is that they are on par with both AA and UA. Conversely, AA will to continue to care less about how they’re perceived (until flashy Ed arrives.)
9. United will continue its long history of claiming to be the best and biggest at everything (to nobody really caring), and Kirby will continue to grind his ax with AA.
10. Most regionals will maintain the course, but Mesa folds and Silver hangs on for the year; UA comes back to Air Wisc, with its tail between its legs.
“These guys won’t last another 6 months”
~Me, leaving YV in early ’98.
Spirit is bought out by Frontier.
JetBlue declares Chapter 11 and AA has significant management changes. The new AA management tries to merge with or buy JetBlue.
Delta gives up on Seattle, and Alaska adds more international from there in response. Portland also gets TPAC on Alaska.
Lufthansa Group has significant management changes.
777X gets delayed again, resulting in many airlines switching their orders to A350-1000. 737 Max 7 gets certified.
We start seeing impacts of new administration:
– Re-started partnership between AA/B6 and/or closer partnership AA/AS.
– DL/AM JV Continues
– New DoT airline delay/cancellation rules are either eliminated or unenforced
– UA Flight attendants agree to deal amidst new NLRB makeup
The US will mediate an end to the Russia-Ukraine war, allowing the reopening of Russian and Ukrainian airspace. A host of new and reinstated flights will be announced from Europe and the US NE to East Asia and the US to India.
US airlines will return to TLV; DL and LY will announce a joint venture.
I agree with 1/2 your prediction (Russian airspace reopens, Ukraine’s does not) while at the same totally disagree with the reason you think it will happen. Trump can’t mediate this. He doesn’t have the temperament.
And this can’t be mediated, really. Putin won’t stop until he controls Ukraine outright. This isn’t Georgia and he has stuck his neck out too far to pull back now (which is why he’s called on the Iranians, Chinese, and North Koreans to bail him out having exhausted his non-nuclear military reserves in this multi-year campaign). Ukraine can’t stop because if they do, they know Putin won’t.
Mediating in Ukraine is literally on the same level of impossibility as trying to mediate between Israel and the Palestinians. They only way this ends is if Putin decides to end it. So, no, if the airspace restriction gets lifted it will come via other means…most likely some sort of quid pro quo between Trump and Putin that freezes the Ukrainians out of the deal.
UA will add an additional flight from Denver to Scottsbluff, NE
Alaska will announce SEA-SYD and SEA-CDG service
2025 Prediction:
AA and B6 announce proposed merger
Putin will lift the overflight restrictions for US carriers. There are all sorts of scenarios that could play out that would lead to this moment so I won’t get into why I think it could happen (but here’s a hint; Trump is President). I’m not going to weigh in on whether overflight gets lifted for the EU/Britain as there are tactical/political reasons why Putin could lift it for the US but not them.
I don’t think it’s a high probability of occurring but I have to put it on the table because it is now as a non-0% possibility. It really depends on how Trump comes out of the gates at the end of January and which version of Trump deals with Putin and how his deeply divided and contradictory cabinet nominees (where Russia is concerned they are all over the spectrum) interface with the President to be. As a PoliSci major, it will be fascinating to watch play out.
1. Sphor gets shown the door and a new regime at Lufty revisits the wisdom of having 37 different brands serving Europe’s second largest…and shrinking…air travel market.
2. I think Ed & Co. are safe at DL as long as those shares keep earning.
3. If the doomsday predictions of a severe recession are true there will be a culling of North American, north Asian and European capacity exceeding 2008 numbers. Frames built before 2005 will be rendered obsolete and marginal brands will disappear.
4. Under #3 Latin America and Africa become preeminent growth
markets. I predict they will by the end of the decade anyway but a severe recession will speed that up.
5. The upside of a 20-25% contraction in capacity is that pilot training v. retirements will rationalize and it will give the FAA some breathing room to property train the next gen of AT Controllers and do some infrastructure upgrades.
With continuing production issues at Airbus and Boeing, at least one major US airline purchases or leases 10 or more used aircraft with the intent to induct them into their fleet.
1. B6/AA JV back on the table in some form (B6 joining Oneworld but that’s less prediction more my wishful thinking)
2. AS makes another int’l push with HA wide bodies, perhaps with 787s this time around
3. AS announces concrete plan to retrofit HA wide bodies to introduce more Premium seats, launch a new seat on the A330.
4. US-China flight cap remains as-is.
5. Starlux joins Oneworld
6. Frontier-Spirit Merger back on the table?
Porter gets closer to One World with code shares with more carriers than AS and becomes One World Connect
2025 will be the year of the strong getting stronger.
To the great consternation of many, 2025 will end with AS, DL and UA all proving they can all play nicely in the sandbox with each other. AS will start its longhaul international service and come up w/ a plan to transition it to 787s from SEA, DL will continue to grow in SEA domestically and internationally, DL and UA will both grow LAX domestically and internationally.
UA will grow EWR to the extent ATC capacity permits and will grow IAD while DL will secure access to new gates at BOS to support new international and domestic growth.
As much as some believe that someone has to lose for someone else to win, these 3 airlines will prove that they are well-run because they can compete well with everyone including each other and don’t need to do things that harm others because doing so harms themselves.
One of the US big 3 announces service to Poland.
United, from ORD.
Won’t happen. Similarly to Austrian and Vienna, I think UA’s more than content to let LOT handle it (especially since LOT just opened a lounge at ORD).
Southwest either delays its assigned seating plans or goes ahead as scheduled and sees early positive returns. Kind of a 2-sided prediction there, I know.
Lufthansa announces a new subsidiary.
B6 and MX will go into Chapter 11. NK will fail to implement its bankruptcy plan to the investors’ acceptance, declare Chapter 7, and get sold for pieces.
Southwest will have another IT meltdown
Alaska shops for and acquires additional Airbus for the Hawaiian brand, leaving Chester to awkwardly but technically remain proudly all Boeing*. Might be orders for XLRs to expand the reach from HNL, might be secondhand NEOs, I’m even coming around to old 319s as an interisland option (very low acquisition cost, labor commonality, parts commonality, ground handling commonality, same engine core as the NGs, range enough to rotate to mainland MROs). Buying assets from Spirit makes sense, and additional mergers (B6) aren’t out of the question.
Boeing 737-7 and 10 MAX are delayed again, this time to 1st quarter of 2026. WN place an order for A220-300 and United gets mad but doesn’t do anything.
Well, MH370 will be found – sometime! With the latest effort starting up again, perhaps that will be in 2025?
United makes a big move into FLL as Spirit either shrinks or fails (Chapter 7), and B6 shrinks.
Would be very cool! FLL is UA’s biggest opportunity if Spirit and/or JetBlue falters. A while back UA had a chart in an investor presentation showing local premium international demand by city, and Miami was the only city in the top 7 where they don’t have a hub.
Breeze files an IPO.
Southwest’s new seat assignments and boarding is initially chaotic and confusing for operations staff and passengers.
My 2025 prediction: the AS/HA merger will proceed smoothly, and people will be surprised at how well the dual brand strategy works.
My 2026 prediction: commenters will again forget that only their first prediction counts, and will pontificate multi-item lists.
Following the incoming administration’s Policy of less regulation of the airlines, along with allowing for more foreign capital, there will be a couple big changes:
JetBlue will try again to purchase Spirit
Emirates will buy a significant share in JetBlue and try to realign the network to serve as a feeder to flights to Dubai
Qatar will counter Emirate’s move by increasing their share in AA
Re-reading the rules my second comment of the above is the one I’d like to be evaluated on.
Alaska Airlines announces plans to launch Europe flights ex SEA
Boeing’s lobbyists find a more compliant administration, and so both the -MAX7 and the -MAX10 variants become certified.
1. AA admits El Paso to the world is a stupid idea and goes back to building up corporate accounts and beef up transcon and international flying from coastal focus cities.
2. Defying all odds, all 4 airlines stick with SEA-TPE.
3. Boeing 737-7 and 737-10 get delayed again and do not get certified.
4. CX says all the right things but secretly veto JX’s application to OneWorld.
5. AS will introduce some kind of hybrid AS/HA livery on a handful of planes for promotional purpose once since cert operation commences.
DEL BO(o)Ming, US3 restoring/adding more capacity to India.
Boeing will limp along with neither a dramatic setback like bankruptcy or an extended production shutdown, but also with further delays to all three of 777X, MAX7, and MAX10.
Frontier will expand outside the U.S. with a major route expansion.
Spirit will emerge from bankruptcy and become a regional feeder in the southeastern u.s. for either AA or United.
Sun Country will switch to all charter service, and pick up more cargo runs for Amazon & add USPS as a customer.
United or Southwest will suffer a major I.T. or Hub issue delaying flights for days.
Frontier announces WiFi on their aircraft, either from Starlink or Thales. Which depends on how much of Spirit they acquire when that airline inevitably goes Ch7.
Secondary prediction that I expect to not be counted; AUS.has new TATL or.TPAC service announced but not started, DL winds up as a comfortable #2 for pax carried per month partway through the hear and stays there, and AUS gets passenger service from at least one new airline.
Also, I don’t count BA’s second daily flight in the “announced but not started” column, and that flight probably makes me technically incorrect about that 2024 prediction.
At the 11th hour, United will purchase Spirit giving up slots in LGA & EWR and gate space in LAX and LAS to Frontier to appease the DOT.
JetBlue declares bankruptcy
Joby and Archer will both fail to achieve FAA certification for their aircraft in 2025, at least one of the major western urban air mobility companies (Joby, Archer, Vertical, Beta, Volocopter, Eve, Wisk, Supernal) will cease to be a going concern.
FAA will end 2025 without the senate confirming a new FAA administrator.
Boeing will finally get 737 Max10 across the finish line with FAA certification.
777x is grounded during certification flights again and further delaying entry into service.
On the American side:
DL – at least 1 more new route announcement for AUS;
NK – will continue to lose money;
Boeing – will still not have certified 737 MAX 7 or 10, nor the 777-9;
AS – will enjoy great synergy having merged with HA, but will also seek a mid continent hub, leading to potential interest in a merger with JetBlue, or if Spirit goes bust, its potential mid continent assets;
Globally:
– Airbus will receive at least one high profile order of 200+ narrowbodies, 50+ widebodies, or some combination thereof;
– At least 1 route serving a destination outside of mainland China will be started on a COMAC C919, possibly China eastern for SHA/PVG-HKG;
– Azerbaijani and/or Iranian airspace will see geopolitics-induced airspace closures or restrictions to American carriers that will end the last of American carrier-operated nonstop flights to India; seizing that opportunity, AI will launch nonstop service to DFW;
A LCC will petition Boeing to bring back the 727 so it can save $50 on air stair rentals
CF – As an aviation veteran, I request your scepticism for Air India not overshadow the current supply chain realities. In this age of social media where every small event becomes a big news event, we expect several decades of problems to magically go away in 3 years since the Tata’s took over, at least they are trying to do the right things. My prediction is that they reduce their losses significantly this year and hopefully make a meagre profit by 2026/27.
– Despite Carsten Spohr‘s announcements to the contrary, integration of ITA into Miles&More will not happen before Q3 2025.
– Boeing‘s 777X will not be delivered to LH in 2025.
– Under new administration, China/US flight cap at least doubles, allowing more flights for both sides. Due to Russian airspace, such higher flights benefit west coast disproportionately.
– AS considers a midcon hub at Omaha Nebraska.
– Frontier and Spirit to merge.
I predict that JetBlue will reach a newly renegotiated deal to buy what is left of Spirit.
United will further expand its Narita hub by flying the A321 to more SouthEast Asia points such as Vientiane, Phuket, Phu Quoc,
There will be another significant US merger/acquisition attempt in 2025.
And I got a mention in the Canada predictions for last year so YAY!
Ah….Phoenix will get another carrier to Europe, most likely Lufthansa or Discover.
1)There will not be a Senate-confirmed FAA administrator for the entirety of 2025.
2)The temporary appointee Musk/Trump nominates for that position will be a crony that uses his position to further exploit some aviation loophole or questionable practice in their aviation business (JSX anyone?)
JetBlue will join, or at least loosely affiliate with, either OneWorld or Star.
I think it could surprise people and choose Star, which would strengthen UA’s situation at JFK and FLL at a stroke, but it already has a relationship with BA and if Porter also signs with OneWorld JetBlue might choose to keep its Canadian partner close at hand.
Delta announces more routes out of Austin (AUS)
Having failed miserably in my prediction a couple of years ago, I was hesitant to make one this year I didn’t make one last year). But in the spirit of the new year, I’ll take the plunge and predict that American will finally find an airline that will acquire its A330-200s.
BA makes some small concessions around the Executive Club changes – likely to be some form of transitional relief or soft landings for current status holders – but largely sticks to its new approach and rides out the PR storm.
Avelo connects the dots with an STS-HVN nonstop.
(I jest, but as part of the tiny addressable market for this service I promise to book it!)
Spirit goess Chapter 7 after a failed attempt to significantly contract. Same with Silver Airways.
JetBlue and American sign a codeshare but no coordination of flights.
United goes nonstop to SE Asia, Bangkok or Ho Chi Minh City or both
Delta drops Brisbane but adds Seattle-Manila.
AUS will get a flight to China and Japan
My worthless predictions:
-Ed & Glenn will continue on just fine with DL in 2025. After a successful transformation of the airline over the last 15 years and continued very good financial performance, the Board will allow them to both to retire on their own timing some year in the future. Us Diamonds will continue to air our frustration with the company, but change nothing about our flying choices.
-BA will continue to get the house in order and increase 737 production very modestly. The 737 MAX 7, 10 and the 77X programs will not be certified in 2025.
-And my really wild one – B6 and Breeze will combine in some fashion with Neeleman returning to B6 as a board member.
I really hope I’m wrong, but:
AA does just well enough that the board chooses to let the current leadership team continue in place, despite no real changes, no strategic vision, and performance that continues to lag DL and UA.
->Breeze starts flying internationally and has at least one quarter above breakeven.
->Delta doesn’t announce a retrenchment in Seattle, but finishes the year with fewer scheduled seats/day than present.
->Drama involving Virgin Australia
– A non-Chinese airline orders the C919. The US is reported to consider sanctions on COMAC.
– UA keeps LAX-HKG at 2x daily and keeps SFO-MNL, but doesn’t add any other new SE Asia service from the US.
– UA modestly grows its NRT mini-hub.
Cathay Pacific will return to Seattle this year. That’s my prediction. I’m surprised they have not returned there. Especially being a OW hub now.
As of my last prediction. On Air India, I think many of us expected too much from Air India jn their first year of privatization. It’s better for them to focus on their existing core markets first. They’re struggling to keep up, especially since many aircraft are parked, and they’re still waiting for more aircraft. And they got to refurbish existing aircraft. The merger with Vistara is not making things any easier. I think it won’t be until next year before we start seeing a massive expansion. I guess.
I predict a huge expansion at PDX via AS…………………………
Spirit Airlines will declare Chapter 7 bankruptcy; UA, B6 and others will scramble to feast on the pieces. UA will pursue the Florida gates while B6 will use the bankruptcy as an opportunity to strengthen their weak position in the Midwest and heartland.
Bonus: A US airline launches year round service to PRG (from either EWR, JFK, PHL or CLT).
Prediction for 2025: B6 makes a play for NK again…this time while NK under CH11 and a new Administration taking over.