When I looked at the Chinese market, one of the comments asked me to do a similar look at India. I’m happy to oblige. And really, this was a fascinating dive. I hadn’t thought about India nearly as much as I had China. The changes aren’t quite as dramatic, but they are clear. Indian demand just keeps growing. The problem is its pesky neighbor to the north is making it hard for the country to reach its full potential, at least on long-haul.
The US Market Has One Problem
Let’s start off with a look at US-India specifically. Thanks to the distance involved, there’s nonstop, and there’s flying through a third country. I broke that out in the following chart, because I think it’s important to differentiate.
Seats by Month From US to India
Data via Cirium
What we see here is that up until 2007, there wasn’t much nonstop service, but what existed was operated by the US carriers. Air India ran everything through Europe until then when it finally began flying nonstop. That was the same time that Jet Airways started flying to the US with a stop, so the race was on.
The initial surge of capacity that came in 2007/2008 was quickly dismantled. It was too premature. And capacity continued to decline for nearly a decade.
Delta abandoned nonstop flights in 2009, only operating via Amsterdam until it tried the nonstop again right before the pandemic shut it down. It still hasn’t returned. American, meanwhile, shut its flight down in 2012, leaving United as the only US carrier flying nonstop to India.
In 2016, Jet Airways left the US, only to shut down two years later. That was when the market hit bottom. After that, things had started to improve steadily, but then the pandemic hit.
What’s pretty remarkable here is how quickly India flying came back after the pandemic, and then how quickly it surged ahead. This was no bubble. India was a popular market for visiting friends and relatives, and people were willing to travel. United in particular was looking for any long-haul opportunity with demand, and it expanded fast with flights to Delhi from Chicago/O’Hare, Newark, and San Francisco along with Newark to Mumbai. It wasn’t all United; American started JFK – Delhi in 2021.
But then, the Russians invaded Ukraine, and the whole thing fell apart.
Maps generated by the Great Circle Mapper – copyright © Karl L. Swartz.
When the Russians shut their airspace off to US and European airlines, it had a devastating impact on the profitability and in some cases the possibility of flights to India. United was hit hardest, and it abandoned all of its flights — including the announced-but-not-flown San Francisco – Bangalore flight — with the exception of Newark – Delhi.
It may seem odd that Newark – Delhi could fly while Newark – Mumbai could not based on the map above, but do keep in mind that Mumbai is further by about 500 miles as the crow flies, so that makes a difference. Also, the winds demand that flights don’t always take the great circle path anyway. As I understand it, that flight just doesn’t work without access to Russian airspace.
What’s one airline’s problem, however, is another’s opportunity. Air India had no such prohibition on flying over Russia, so it stepped up demand when the US airlines could not.
The airline had suspended it’s 1-2x weekly flight from SFO to Bangalore when the invasion happened, but by December it had returned with 3x weekly. It began 4x weekly from SFO to Mumbai at the same time. JFK – Mumbai came online in early 2023, and Newark – Delhi — which had been at 4x weekly before the invasion — recently went up to 5x weekly.
Air India is dominating the market, and it has more than doubled seats in the last decade. It will continue to have that nonstop market almost entirely to itself until Russian airspace opens up to US-based carriers.
The Rest of the World
This is a US-focused site more than anything else, so it stands to reason that I’d start with US flying. But that is a true drop in the bucket compared to other parts of the world. Take a look.
Seats from India by Month and Destination Continent
Data via Cirium
While North America sits down at the bottom of the pile, it’s the Middle East which has absolutely exploded. In 2005, the Middle East – India was about 25 percent larger than the European market. Now, it’s more than 250 percent larger.
Why? There are a lot of reasons. First, there is huge local traffic between India and the Middle East thanks to the countless workers who go from India to places like Dubai to earn a paycheck they can send home to family. But it’s also the mega-hubs in Dubai and Doha that provide enormous amounts of connecting traffic. This is the most important market for India and, I would argue, for the Middle East airlines as well.
It’s also noticeable that Southeast Asia has surged ahead. This is really the triumvirate of Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, and Singapore. Europe, meanwhile, has stagnated in comparison, but it is still at a high point despite Russian overflight restrictions.
The only market that’s really suffering mightily? It’s China. In fact, if you thought flying from the US to China was tough, you haven’t looked at India. There are currently… checks notes… ZERO flights scheduled between the two most populous countries on earth. That is staggering.
This is a diplomatic spat above all, but it sounds like things are starting to thaw and we may see the resumption of nonstops again soon enough. But for now, it’s still a flat line.
The Domestic Market Soars
The last market I want to take a look at is the domestic one. If you want to see a growth story, this is it.
Domestic India Seats by Airline By Month
Data via Cirium
Up until 2011, it was Indian Airlines and Jet Airways that were the biggest competitors in the market. That year, Air India and Indian Airlines merged in what can only be considered a terrible mess of a merger. But once Air India took over, the combined airline just watched as other airlines ate its lunch.
The biggest and most impressive competitor of all is IndiGo which right around 2011 surged to be the largest domestic airline. Today, it’s not even close.
IndiGo’s position was helped when Kingfisher disappeared in 2012, Jet Airways failed in 2019, and Go First imploded in 2023. SpiceJet did try to step in and grow quickly at that point, but it has almost died time and time again. It is no longer an important player.
Air India has regained some strength now that it’s owned by Tata. That company has worked to combine all of the ridiculous subsidiaries into something more coherent. Vistara was folded into Air India. AirAsia India was folded into Air India Express. They’re all now under a single corporate banner under Air India, competing primarily with IndiGo, the remains of SpiceJet and upstart Akasa Air.
During this time, monthly seats have grown from a little over 2 million to more than 17 million. The market should only keep growing.
India continues to grow in importance on the world stage, and it has barely scratched the surface of its potential to support more air travel. If geopolitical issues cleared up, that would just accelerate the process. Either way, India will be one of the more important travel markets to watch.
49 comments on “Only Russia is Holding India Back”
Wow that was a fascinating break down. Thanks!
Good stuff Brett. Your analysis shows just how fast air markets can change.
One wonders how this will develop when the Russia-Ukraine war ends, and a president friendly to Russia takes office here.
The Indian government has refused to expand bilaterals with many countries to protect flag carrier Air India. Many complaints from Sir Tim Clark of Emirates about this.
That is a very big barrier for future capacity increases.
Tying in with my other comment about how the Russian airspace issue might be resolved soon, one area of growth may be the alliance between Indigo and American. One could AA starting a code-share flight from Chicago or DFW for this alliance.
The issue that American faces is this. The Indian expat market to the Middle East is enormous, but the average pax doesn’t have a ton of money to spend. This similar to the expat Mexican market here. These people are generally lower-end workers in construction or agriculture. So they aren’t spending a ton.
But the expat market for Indians in the US is a little different. The average person of Indian ancestry here is more prosperous, lots of doctors and engineers. They can afford flights home, but might not enjoy connecting to the Indian version of Ryanair. Not the best fit. These folks, and they are smaller in numbers than all the expat Indians in the Middle East, would be a more natural fit on Air India at home.
Plus there is already a ton of capacity through Doha and Dubai. Between them they have 29 nonstops a day from the US, and they all connect to lots of middle size Indian cities. It’s significant competition to the Indian carriers.
One thing to add, long-term demographics favor India as they have a far younger population compared to China. China is beginning to feel the impact of the one child policy witch will cause there population to shrink rapidly in the coming decades.
Worth pointing out that IndiGo has announced plans for both a long-haul and a short-haul business/first (whatever terms you want to use) product. The product is just barely starting to roll out, and I can’t remember if it will truly be fleet-wide, but it’s a start. Assuming they see a good return it could proliferate further. This is basically the same as the US3’s domestic first class so would mesh just fine coming off a long-haul business class flight.
What happened in India T-Pac service in 2Q12? Looks like it dropped to near zilch. I don’t remember a war or anything going on… SARS? Swine Flu?
haolenate – I think that’s a data glitch.
Air India had a 58 day pilot strike in 2012, which grounded their flights from 5/10 to 7/4.
more great analysis from CF.
One person’s loss is another’s gain – and that is why US carrier challenges w/ serving S. Asia have become other carriers’ opportunities.
The Middle East carriers clearly stand to gain but so too should European carriers. While they have to navigate airspace restrictions, the increased distance is not as surmountable. AC does fly to India nonstop DEL-YYZ but uses the gas-guzzling 777LR but makes a stop coming back for BOM with a 787.
The real question for the future is what will change. If the Russia-Ukraine war comes to a close, there might be a reset of western-Russian relations but that still doesn’t mean that western governments want the possibility of hundreds of their citizens being in the hands of a foreign government which still might not have good relations.
Let’s also not forget that SQ overflies India on its routes from NYC to SIN using A350ULRs that are less capable that current versions that Airbus is rolling out of its factories; the further distance to SIN and the reduced payload says there is some combination of Airbus capabilities and the N. America-India market that can be served.
And the impact of Russian airspace closures is not impacting just India. The elimination of all UA flying from the eastern US to E. Asia except for Tokyo shows how much geopolitical instability can impact the competitive environment. In addition to Indian and Chinese airlines, some CX flights do not respect Russian airspace restrictions so those carriers can do what US and Canadian carriers cannot do. Taiwanese and S. Korean carriers are doing as well as they are because their hubs are just inside the range of what current aircraft can do from all points in the U.S.
@CF
do we have permission to respond to Tim?
MaxPower – You don’t need my permission! You won’t find me responding, but if you want to get into an argument loop with them, you’re welcome to do it. Just remember to avoid personal attacks.
Fair point. Don’t need the loop. Good guidance
One person’s opinion and circumstances vary but if you’re going to either tier 1 city (Mumbai or Delhi) or many of the tier 2s (Hyderabad, Chennai, Bangalore etc), I think it’s insane to not connect through Europe. Two 8 hour flights is so much better than a 3 and 12 hour flight IMO. I do wonder what we’ll see once European service to tier 2 and 3 Indian cities becomes commonplace.
BLR gets quite a bit of Europe flights and I think MAA too. I’m just patiently waiting for more AMD service. AI used to run LHR-AMD 3x a week, but would never code share it to UA or AC for optimal travel convenience.
AMD has now moved to LGW :(
Why is our beloved Delta not in the game? Seattle, JFK?
Not sure who you want to answer but my guess involves the following:
1. Just because AA and UA serve a route or country does not mean that it meets DL’s profit requirements. UA has not been able to sustain even a 2nd EWR-DEL route, the only India route it is operating. AA has switched from its high CASM 777-300ER to the 787-9 and intends to put the new premium config on their JFK-DEL, likely indicating they were payload restricting their current model.
2. DL used the 777LR which could fly as far as ATL-BOM w/o Russia airspace restrictions; that route was longer than AA and UA’s DEL-NYC flights with Russia airspace restrictions.
3. DL got rid of the LR because of its low fuel efficiency (like the 777-200ER) and knew that Airbus was working on enhancements to the A350 that would give that model the range to do what DL needed.
4. DL now has enough A350-900s including the most recent and capable models so should be able to do routes that are consistently 17 hours long in the air – because other operators such as SQ do that even with 250 seats.
5. DL has long had a preference for BOM over DEL which means even longer flights.
6. DL has to assume that Air India will still have access to Russia airspace so will have to win a revenue premium and have favorable costs. The A350-1000 is probably the only aircraft that has the cost economics and the capabilities to serve India not just from NYC but potentially deeper into the US where there are undoubtedly much greater revenue generating opportunities.
7. DL has waited years for approval of the KE-OZ merger which is now here and I expect they will lean into growing ICN as part of the JV and then fill out their network elsewhere in E. Asia.
DL might get its first A350-1000s in 2025 by picking up some of VS’ orders although they haven’t confirmed that. By the summer of 2026, when DL’s own 35K orders should be delivered, if we don’t see DL back in India as well as deeper in the Pacific Rim, they probably won’t. But I’m guessing they will be back in S. Asia and deeper in E. Asia.
I think you are trying to tie too many unrelated events to each other and to Delta operation in India:
1) 2nd EWRDEL was successful until the whole Russia invasion. Understandably hard to compete when AI is both cheaper and faster
2) If United can fly EWRDEL, then Delta could at least fly JFKDEL? or maybe the A359 is just not as powerful as the 777LR or the United 789??? Hmmm maybe they made the wrong call with fleet…
3) Delta got rid of the 777LR (and the entire 777 fleet) due to Covid. They even had just upgraded them to D1, so means they intended to invest and keep them for longer. The 777LR went to Air India and now being used for US-India flights
5) The preference is from olden days when they had the partnership with Jet Airways. Not having any partner is the main reason they aren’t flying to India, not because BOM is further than DEL. A Delta DEL flight would open up so many Indian Delta fliers…
7) KE-OZ merger will have little impact on India. Maybe a little just because Delta has no operation in India, but no one will fly from the US to Korea to India, when there are faster options via the US, Canada, Europe and Middle East
nice numbering….
Obviously, there is a whole lot that we can say changed because of covid… the point is what works now and what can work in the future.
UA is flying one India flight/day NYC-DEL, same as AA.
Covid and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine didn’t happen at the same time. DL also retired other aircraft -some of which it has and is reactivating but DL expected the combined impact to make a difference long-term.
BOM is the financial center of India, just as Shanghai is for China. DL has always shown more of a preference for the financial centers of countries more than for the political centers which aligns with their hub in NYC.
Even though DL will take delivery of 25 new Airbus widebodies in 2024-25, they still do not have unlimited capacity to expand. Adding capacity as part of the KE JV will very likely take priority over other international growth just because it will likely be higher yielding.
And, as long as Russia airspace restrictions are in place, flying from the west coast to India via NE Asia is an option, although there isn’t a lot of service.
I still think that DL will restart India with the A350-1000 and do so on routes that other airlines cannot serve – and get a revenue premium as a result – because of the better capabilities of the A350 family and the better economics of the 35K.
btw, DL actually carries comparable amounts of India traffic via its European JV partners as AA and UA do.
A lot of fluff in Tim Dunns answer… But I really think it boils down to they have no real partner in India to connect pax beyond DEL or BOM.
A359 can easily do the route, and they even have the longer range version, they just cannot compete with coverage across the whole of India. UA/AC/LH have AI (with Vistara). AA is tied up with Indigo. The biggest players are out of the game. DL bet all their eggs on Jet Airways, even loaning a few executives over to run the airline, but it wasn’t enough.
I’ll also respond directly to Tim Dunn as he tries to tie unrelated events together imo
1. DL has said it is starting a relationship with Indigo which does not exclusively partner with airlines of any alliance
2. Mumbai is getting a new airport in 2025 but DL still might serve BOM and the 35K might or might not be capable of making the flight to the US.
rather than fixate on what DL will do when it is very likely based on exec statements that they will serve India again, the real question is how much AA and UA service there will be and if DL might suddenly take the lead in the market by virtue of using the largest aircraft and potentially being able to serve markets that AA and UA cannot.
I think you are just fixating on too many Delta hypotheticals. “lets discuss how UA and AA will react IF Delta comes back to India and IF Delta suddenly takes the lead in the market” Those are all hypotheticals. I’ll start worrying about that if even Delta comes back to India in the first place, even if it’s a connecting in Europe using the 767.
The restrictions on Russian airspace have gifted an effective monopoly on nonstop US-India flights to Air India. It’s a great business, and a better-managed airline would be taking full advantage. If one of their domestic competitors builds a full long-haul operation, they could potentially claim a lot of market share.
The various airspace restrictions have also been a major benefit to the ME3 and Turkish Airlines. If you fill in the map with the other major airspace restrictions (Ukraine, Iran, Afghanistan), then you’ll see that IST, DUB, DOH, and AUH are in strategic along the flight path between the US/Europe and South Asia. IST is directly along the route that goes over the Black Sea, Caucasus Mountains, and Caspian Sea, while the ME3 airports are at the “corner” of flight routes that go “around” Iran to the south. These bottlenecks make great locations for scissor hubs.
I think it makes sense for the US-based airlines to mostly sit this competition out. They are handicapped in their ability to compete with Air India on nonstops, and the market for one-stop itineraries is extremely competitive, and served by literally dozens of airlines. The current approach of selling one-stop itineraries via their trans-Atlantic JV partners seems reasonable, both from a revenue and passenger experience perspective.
It’s fascinating to observe that Indigo has established a stronger domestic presence, while Air India excels internationally. What strategies might be driving Indigo’s domestic success that Air India is missing out on?
Furthermore, it seems that seat occupancy has returned to pre-pandemic levels. However, Indigo is managing to fill more seats, whereas SpiceJet is still struggling to regain its pre-pandemic footing.
Another though that comes to my mind is that people tend to book through third party apps more than airlines own website due to deals and Indigo tops on most of the searches in terms of price, wonder if that is what is working for Indigo.
I’ve truly always found Indigo better with:
Schedule (Much more frequency on flights to find the perfect time)
Cheaper (Never seen a cheaper AI flight unless booking with UA points)
Nice (Planes are clean and relatively well kept)
Reliable (a bit controversial, but never had a delay myself)
Modern (you said it perfectly, much more app and customer service focused)
Soniya – I don’t think it’s anything different than the usual thing that happens when a legacy carrier is disrupted. Air India never cared about the domestic market. When it inherited the Indian Airlines network, it had to pay attention but it was still not focused on how to actually cater to passengers. IndiGo came in and saw the opportunity and had no trouble at all leaving Air India in the dust.
BOM flights are also tough because there are strict takeoff restrictions last I remember. It was something about too many billboards/buildings near the takeoff path, so planes have to use a higher and faster takeoff path. This all requires more fuel, just like the extra 500 miles you mentioned and the Russian airspace closure.
Great stuff Brett- thanks! Loved all that data and analysis you presented.
I’m surprised others haven’t mentioned it, but DL is actually the top US carrier from North America to India with a 4.3% share (YE Sept 2024). UA has 3.5%, and AA 3.2%. AI has 21.6% and ME3 has 33.9%
Say what?
DL leverages its partners’ metal really well. 9.7% of the passengers on VS’s flights to India are DL passengers. 25.6% of passengers on AF to India are DL passengers. 24.5% of passengers on KL to India are DL passengers.
By comparison, only 4.8% of passengers on BA to India are AA passengers and just 2.0% of passengers on LH are UA passengers.
There’s really no reason for DL to put its own metal into India.
Volumes within one percentage point of each other don’t speak to yields.
UA, with the nonstop from NYC to DEL, is almost certainly commanding higher fares than competitors whose passengers have to connect.
Factoring in passengers willing to double connect via both a DL and KL/AF hub would likely drive SkyTeam yields further.
The power of UA’s NYC hub, consolidated at one airport, allows for a significant number of single connections and higher yields. The power of the hub is also evidenced by the number of international destinations and the large percentage of mainline flying. UA has double daily to Tokyo and will almost certainly resume flying to BOM/PVG/PEK/HKG when airspace restrictions lift.
Mark,
feel free to share actual yield data if you have it but traffic carried on AA and UA amounts to a small percentage of the total traffic of the big 3. The majority does fly on the JVs and/or the Middle East carriers which is part of the point of CF’s post.
Also, NYC-DEL is the only O&D which has a nonstop advantage for AA and UA. The SkyTeam JV as well as the other two JVs have European carriers that serve multiple cities in India and +/- two dozen cities in N. America so there are scores of India-N. America O&Ds that can be accessed by a single connection. The majority of traffic can be carried by double connects – which includes all Indian destinations in India other than DEL and anything other than EWR/JFK in the US. The sheer distance, the relatively small number of flights, and the fact that AI is not in an JV with a US carrier make it unlikely that most traffic between the US and India will be carried via a double connect. The ME3 serves fewer US gateways than the US3.
As far as hubs, I would strongly bet that DL will figure out a way to serve India from ATL as well as JFK which will ensure that they have the upper hand in creating the most connections at their gateway.
and, again, the real question for the future is whether AA and UA can do anything to add any other US gateways in the US other than NYC and/or serve any destinations in India other than DEL. If DL is able to do anything other than those two things, they will have an advantage. If they do both, they have an even greater advantage. Also, while DL hasn’t announced its configuration for the 35K, it will have considerably more seats than any AA or UA 787.
as for the discussion below, flightaware shows that the flown distance for AA and UA vs. AI on DEL-EWR/JFK is about 1000 miles further. However, AI leaves a couple hours later – +/- 2 a.m. from India so it isn’t certain they really benefit given that the arrival times in the US are about the same.
Mark – For the 12 months ending Sep 2024 (most recent date) from ARC/BSP in the NYC – Delhi market, United averaged 82 passengers per day at $1,619.
American had 86 a day at $1,498. Air India had 162 a day at $1,026. Delta had 11 a day at $706.
If we just look at the entire US – India market for that time period, here are the numbers in descending order of number of passengers (everything over 300 pax per day each way):
Thanks Brett. Interesting data.
I think the second part of your message got cut off, regarding yields for the entire US – India market.
It sure did. How weird.
AI $909 1,813.60 pax
EK $984 1,420.54 pax
QR $746 1,165.96 pax
EY $836 710.96 pax
BA $965 481.59 pax
LH $960 422.79 pax
UA $1,175 381.96 pax
DL $776 372.69 pax
AA $989 350.13 pax
thanks for the data, CF, but since the volume numbers from BSP differ from what Bravenav shared, it shows that there are very few publicly available data sources that can be relied upon to make international fare conclusions.
It is not a surprise that AA and UA get a fare premium by having at least some service to India; the question is whether it extends beyond either end of NYC or DEL.
And the bigger issue is what DL or any other carrier could reasonably expect to get with additional service, if it can be added. Most of those yields are lower than to E. Asia or Africa on O&Ds of similar or less length.
AA and UA do not appear to be able to operate any routes other than NYC-DEL while it is likely that DL will add routes other than to DEL. If AA and UA get a halo to more than NYC or DEL, DL could capture some of that traffic over other gateways.
US-India traffic is highly competitive and highly fragmented and much of it is served via double connections. Based on DL exec statements that they are returning to India, they clearly see opportunity for fares well above what your data shows.
The real follow-up will be to see if AA and UA expand any further to India in the next 5 years which is heavily dependent on aircraft used, if DL re-adds service and gets better fares from it, how AI does with its increased service – as well as other Indian carriers that might add service to the US, and how the ME3 fare – which I noted carry huge amounts of the US-India market.
Tim, my numbers were North America – India, not just US. Same data source. Delta is carrying 108.47 pax daily Canada to India vs 14.56 for UA and 4.88 for AA.
Bravenav – You know, that is interesting. I see the same data for Canada – India, but what’s so interesting is that almost none of those ever touch a Delta airplane. Only 11.53 PDEW touch a Delta airplane. The vast majority of the rest are on KLM or Air France with a single stop. Meanwhile, 25.77 of those touch a United airplane and 36.12 touch an American airplane.
If we even this up and look at how things break down when there is a flight operated by the joint ventures, then we get this: UA JV 783.42 pax $918 Air India 622.84 pax $944 DL JV 273.10 pax $672 Emirates 193.10 pax $683 Etihad 188.06 pax $933 AA JV 166.07 pax $628 Qatar 144.09 pax $528
So, United is a clear winner in this market with its joint venture partners. It gets a great fare considering it has no nonstop. Delta has a decent number of passengers, but it’s a garbage fare. I wonder why people are booking on the DL code. Maybe there was a pricing discrepancy or maybe it’s group bookings or something.
Oh I take that back. Air Canada has a nonstop from Canada and is part of the joint venture, so that would explain the better fare. But… you know what? Let’s take that even further and look back at North America to India in aggregate. For some reason, Delta may sell more on its own code, but the joint ventures change things significantly.
Air India takes the most passengers with nearly 2500 a day at a fare of $918. United and partners are second at about 1750 a day at a $988 fare. After Emirates and Qatar comes Delta and partners with about 1250 a day at a terrible $757 fare. American follows at about 1120 a day at a $907 fare. So yes, it seems clear that nonstops make a huge difference in fare.
CF and Bravenav,
those total numbers look more reasonable.
It didn’t even make sense that AA and UA carried less than 400 passengers total when they fill more than half of that number of seats on their own nonstops let alone that 20% of DL’s total traffic is from Canada.
AC uses the 777LR from YYZ and operates nonstop while they use the 787 nonstop eastbound but w/ a stop in FRA westbound. Both are high cost options.
It is no surprise that nonstops command a higher fare – that is true all over the world.
Given that DL already carries more traffic than AA/BA carries at 85% of the fare with no nonstops on its own aircraft or any JV partners, there is growth revenue potential in the market. Obviously, traffic via Europe is incremental revenue and is likely taken on a pretty seasonal basis – or at least fares differ wildly between winter and summer. VS is known to have low yields compared to other carriers and they operate the most India capacity (at least during the winter) among DL’s JV partners.
The question is who has the capability to grow and will do so.
DL execs, not me, said they will begin service to India and have developed a codeshare with Indigo.
They clearly see value in the market and the A350-1000 will be the only aircraft that can economically carry traffic from the US to India other than between NYC (or BOS) and DEL.
and I would strongly bet that the same thing will be true around the world… UA gets a revenue premium in markets where it has the only US carrier service – but that falls if other carriers have comparable or better service which does happen in some parts of the world.
interesting discussion but it just reinforces that US airlines are most impacted by Russia’s airspace closures. Some will work around those issues better than others.
You can be with us or against us. Air India isn’t with us, and the country is propping up Putin and Russia by profiting from cheap oil. Always “fun” to see an AI flight from or to the US make an unscheduled stop in Russia.
Agreed.
I would also add… Given that Russia has shown a willingness in recent years to murder innocent people by shooting down planes containing people whose views it disagrees with, I would be VERY reluctant to take a flight (even a flight on an airline “friendly” to Russia or one based in a country that is “friendly” to Russia, such as Air India) that goes over Russian/Belarussian airspace.
Is that a relatively small risk? Yes, but still not worth the risk in my opinion. The risk of being struck by lightning is incredibly low, after all, but that still doesn’t make it smart to hold conductive objects in while standing flat terrain during thunderstorms.
I’m a bit confused; the Great Circle Map clearly shows that overflying Russia is the shortest route between Delhi and JFK (coming in at 7,318 miles).
Yet, when I use Flightradar247 to track two current flights between DEL-JFK the margins seem small
AI-101 today is showing a total flight distance of 7,355 miles
AA-293 today is showing a total flight distance of 7,520 miles
Does this 165 miles really make a difference
For comparison purposes, I used Flightradar247 to track the return JFK-DEL flights….and the margins are even smaller
AI-101 today is showing a total flight distance of 7,366 miles
AA-293 today is showing a total flight distance of 7,401 miles
This is a difference of only 35 miles….despite the fact that AI can overfly Russia while AA can’t.
What am I missing?
AI101 on Monday 12/16 had a flight time of 15:06
AA293 had a flight time of 16:54
AI102 (JFK-DEL) had a flight time of 13:32
AA292 had a flight time of 14:42
Those differences are huge.
It’s a great question to ask and talk through. On the surface it doesn’t seem like much at all, but it can be more significant than it may appear.
To expand upon your comment, an additional hour or two of flight time is matters on long flights, as it compounds the fuel (and thus the weight) required to be carried. Additional fuel creates additional weight to be carried for the earlier part of the flight, which means some additional fuel must be burned to carry that weight; lather rinse repeat.
In certain cases (not sure if this applies to US-India flights) the weight of additional fuel could be enough to prevent the airline from carrying additional belly cargo (which sells for premium prices on ultra-long nonstop flights; US to India nonstop is one of the most expensive air freight lanes I deal with as a shipper), creating a revenue penalty as well.
A quick search suggests that A350-900s & B787-9s burn on the order of 10,000 to 15,000 lbs of fuel per hour at cruise (exact numbers don’t really matter here).
In the case of the first two flights above with a difference of almost 2 hours, that’s an extra 10-15 tons/tonnes of fuel burn on the first order, but even that doesn’t account for the fact that the plane has to burn some ADDITIONAL fuel to carry those 10-15 tons/tonnes during the first 15 hours of the flight (and again, that additional fuel will also increase fuel burn a little bit, and so on).
There’s also the commercial factor, where pax choosing between nonstop flights prefer those flights with shorter flight/block times, all else equal (as an aside, some pax do genuinely prefer 1-stop intineraries instead of doing 12+ hours in a plane).
I’m sure others will correct me if I’m off on a few details, but that’s my two cents.
Again, very valid question to ask and fun to talk through.
Jason & Kilroy:
Thank you both for your comments and insights. Although I was aware of the flight time issue (I’m assuming that this is due to a combination of different aircraft and winds, I’d not thought about the fuel requirements, much less the shipping issue.
Cranky’s posting, however, was (at least in part) about the distance and that the closing of Russian airspace increased the distance to the point of making the flights unfeasible. And, in that respect, the differences are negligible (165 miles to the US, and 35 miles from the US)….thus my confusion.
> Does this 165 miles really make a difference?
I don’t have a specific answer to this exact case, but I was on a regional flight in the US and they made a few pax move up a few seats for balance purposes. I was kinda shocked that just by moving 2 passengers (conservatively 350 lbs) 4 rows up on a plane that weights approximately 40-45k lbs), the flight was now suddenly “safe”
As I am also shocked, I’m prone to believe yes. There are obviously lots of other factors at play. Maybe AA carries more cargo because it’s an American carrier? Maybe AI’s seats are lighter? Maybe AA (or FAA) has more strict reserve restrictions?
Great insight. Thanks!
The population of India will reach and then stay at 1.5 Billion into 2100. There is no other country that will have such a massive internal and external demand which you can see with the orders from Tata and Indigo.
Airbus have won big in this market…
Can someone explain something to me. On this thread we have discussed the fact that Air India (AI-101) can take the Russian route when flying between Delhi and New York, while American (AA-293) and United (UA-83) can not. One would think that AA-293 and UA-83 would follow the same route on any given night (both flights use 789s and have the exact same departure time). Some nights this is true, but there are times (such as tonight — December 19th) when they do not. They had roughly the same route until just before the crossed the Bulgarian Coast. At that point AA-293 took a more westerly route, emerging over the Atlantic over Brittany (France) while UA-83 took a more northerly route, crossing southern Norway before emerging into the North Atlantic.
The projected total flight time is almost the same (so that doesn’t seem to account for the difference)
Thanks
AA-Platinum – Airline dispatchers may come to different conclusions on what’s the best route to take. One may be more willing to divert around weather or turbulence than another. In this case, if the flight times are basically the same, then it probably was just what each airline’s system suggested to take.