Topic of the Week: The (Temporarily) Shrinking Japanese Market

In light of the earthquake/tsunami/nuclear meltdown 1-2-3 punch, traffic to Japan is plunging. Delta has suspended its Haneda flights for a few months, Singapore has indefinitely postponed its A380 service there, and other airlines around the world are cutting back as well. Discuss.

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13 Comments on "Topic of the Week: The (Temporarily) Shrinking Japanese Market"

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Eric
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My heart goes out to the people of northeast Japan….it seems they can not catch a break. From what I have read on some other message boards, HND has been grossly under-performing since launch….and the 74-4 is way to much airplane for that market. The disaster was the tipping point, but some speculate that it was doomed before the disaster. I think the real wild card here is how will this impact the already precarious JAL. Will the Transportation Ministry throw more money at it? Will AMR? If so…where is the $$$ going to come from…since both are not exactly… Read more »
Sanjeev M
Guest
Yes, for Haneda, the saver will be the 787. Even 777 is too much A/C But with this disaster, I’m not sure what will happen. Korean Air must really be licking its chops right now with lots of the Japan (NRT) transfer passengers shifting to Seoul. However Korean Air actually has more seats to Japan than United (something like 9% of intl capacity) so watch for some downguage substitutions on KE. Oneworld should be scared. Yes they have Cathay, but they need to get Hainan Airlines and someone in Asia (other than Kingfisher) on board. But remember, China like the… Read more »
Crisp
Guest

For SEA-NRT, I think that would seem less likely to be dropped, especially since it is the closest mainland destination to Japan. This means a lower load is needed to break even (less fuel) and it potentially could be switched to a 767. Although SEA certainly isn’t a hub for United, it has a good amount of O/D traffic and enough other flights to make it worthwhile.

Rhombus
Guest

AZ and LH are diverting their Tokyo flights to Osaka now, but do you think that they can still keep the capacity up? There will still be some traffic, but with far less tourism and business travel, is sending flights to Osaka better than reducing capacity?

c7edwards
Member

The triple punch will most likely affect traffic at both NRT and HND at least until the end of the year. In the meantime it may help develop KIX and NGO as veritable gateway airports to Japan’s premium market and as transfer points between North America and Asia much like NRT has been until recently.

My heart goes out to the people of Japan affected by the earthquake, tsunami and nuclear plant meltdown.

Nick Barnard
Member

Heres the other side of the coin, perhaps there will be a larger bump after the initial down draw? We know that disasters necessitate rebuilding, which causes an economic bump up of activity. How much if this will manifest itself in airline trips and cargo remains to be seen..

Joe Jones
Guest
I am an adopted Tokyoite and an airplane geek so let me weigh in on this. The situation on the ground in Japan is MUCH better than CNN etc. would have you believe. Although the tsunami zones up north are complete disaster areas, the Tokyo metropolitan area didn’t sustain much direct damage from the quake and completely missed the tsunami. The main issues for Tokyo at this point are (a) a lack of electricity due to the non-functioning nuke plants and (b) mass hysteria about radiation risk, mostly among non-Japanese who don’t appreciate that Tokyo and Fukushima are quite far… Read more »
Sanjeev M
Guest

Hey, thanks for the insight. To be fair, news did report here that Narita was back to normal pretty fast. But yes, news does over dramatize things.

But either way, the hype outside of Japan (esp in the US) is going to affect traffic numbers cause of paranoia alone.

Enjoy your stay in Hawaii!

woodymike
Member

The Japs send us (USA) those crappy defective TOYOTAS and then expect help from us. NO WAY!!!!

keith
Guest

Just bc you likely own a toyota doesn’t mean you can start moaning here. Buy American next time. I have and always will.

woodymike
Member

NO! I own a Chrysler 300M 2000 year model with less than 80K miles. I am not moaning, but the JAP CARS are simply not as good as the foolish Americans who buy them claim them to be. Enough said–I hope!

Nick Barnard
Member

The defective Toyotas were mostly made in the US.. Besides, we’re chatting about how the natural disaster will affect the air travel market in Japan, not the Japanese’s car designing skills.

Also, I will help all but a few of my enemies. (and probably when faced with them actually needing help, I’ll help them to.) We’re all human, and relieving human suffering is a goal that we all share. (Unless we’re into BDSM, in which case its a different story..)

JordyC
Guest
Frankly I couldn’t care less if i never transited NRT again ever mostly because of the tedious, pointless hike of a mile round trip for screening of inbound transit pax connecting often but a single gate away from the inbound a/c on NWA/DL or even the same a/c. Its exactly the same hastle as the week after 9-11 for no discernable purpose whatsoever. The girls in their cute 50’s era livery are often cute though. Wonder what they do with all the duty free perfume they confiscate? The storied efficiency and courtesy of the land of the rising sun is… Read more »
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