It’s been a busy year south of the US border with all three alliances trying to make big land grabs in Latin America. So far, it looks like Star Alliance and oneworld are doing the best with Skyteam coming in a sad third. But these alliance loyalties are not static, and we could see more changes soon.

Let’s start with a map showing in which countries each alliance has a presence. This assumes that all announced members actually become members and it doesn’t include non-alliance partnerships. (For example, Gol may work with American but it’s not part of oneworld.)

Now let’s think about some of the major changes that altered this map in recent months. The list is enormous.

• oneworld member Mexicana went under, leaving Aeromexico’s Skyteam presence as the only one in Mexico
• Avianca and TACA merged and then decided to join Star Alliance
• Copa decided to join Star Alliance
• Aerolineas Argentinas decided to join Skyteam
• LAN acquired AIRES to give it a presence in Colombia

And that’s all pretty recent. Crazy stuff, right? So now we see Star Alliance having a stranglehold on Central America now that TACA and Copa will be in the same alliance. LAN rules the southwest of the continent with Avianca-TACA making strides in the northwest. And then there’s Brazil.

All eyes are on the most important market in Latin America these days. The big player in the country, TAM, is currently part of Star Alliance, but there is plenty of speculation about what will happen after its merger with LAN is completed. Will LAN come to Star? Will TAM go to oneworld? Or will the airlines both keep their respective alliances? My money is on the latter, if they can figure out a way to walk that tightrope.

Then again, Star has given itself a little cushion here. If TAM goes to oneworld, then Star will have the option of trying to help Avianca grow its Brazilian subsidiary, if it thinks it’s necessary. And LAN might want to bring TAM into oneworld to try to push off American’s growing relationship with Gol, right? This is better than a Mexican soap opera.

The one thing we can all agree on now is that Skyteam is mostly left out of this game. Sure, Aeromexico is a part of Skyteam but that’s far from where this fight is taking place. It’s a different market entirely. And Aerolineas Argentinas? Yeah, that’s one mess of an airline. As a government-owned entity, it’s not going anywhere, but it’s not exactly the alliance prize of Latin America.

Latin America is booming and there are a handful of very well run airlines down there (most prominently, LAN). This is going to be a fascinating area to watch as alliances look to cement relationships to give the best coverage in the region.

New York Snowstorm Sees Delta Start Canceling Earlier Than JetBlue, American – BNET
You may have been stranded but from an operational perspective, the airlines did pretty well at JFK during this major snowstorm.

US Airways and Continental See Different Fortunes with United at Washington/Dulles – BNET
As Continental ramps up Dulles, US Airways cuts back. Clearly they’re each seeing different opportunities with United.

Three Reasons Why Delta Slashed First Class Fares Between New York and the West Coast – BNET
Delta made some pretty steep cuts to First Class fares between New York and LA/SF last week. Here’s why I think they did it.

Airlines find coach travelers willing to pay extra for perks – Chicago Sun Times
This week, the Sun Times took on the issue of fees, and I was asked to comment.

Starting on July 1, Continental will begin thrice weekly service between LAX and San Salvador, El Salvador. Normally, I wouldn’t think twice about a simple route addition like this, but I find myself wondering if this is the beginning of something more.

This particular route is an interesting one. There is a great deal of traffic, and that’s probably why TACA and American both fly it. But why is Continental going in? It’s possible that they see a marginal opportunity and it’s a way to improve utilization, but I’d like to hope that this is the beginning of Continental’s move into an expanded role between LA and Latin America.

United used to serve the San Salvador route from LA, but they pulled out within the last couple years. Continental has a strong presence in Latin America, but ever since the airline packed up its headquarters and left LA for Houston more than 20 years ago, it hasn’t had much of a presence in LA at all. So the route may or may not have been on their radar before (they’ve tried limited Mexico night flights from LAX in the past), but now with Continental joining the Star Alliance and becoming a tight partner with United, could this be recognition of a greater opportunity?

It always surprised me that United never really tried to penetrate the LA to Mexico business markets. That’s Continental’s specialty out of Houston. So now if we combine Continental’s Latin experience and capabilities with United’s strong LA presence and feed, I’d like to think that Continental may see a golden opportunity.

Do I know anything in particular about this? Absolutely not. But it makes a lot of sense. It would be great to see someone try to tap into that market.

Lufthansa has owned a 30% share in UK-based airline bmi for some time, and now bmi chief Sir Michael Bishop has exercised his option to sell his 50% (plus one share) stake to the airline for a whopping 400 million euros. That’s no chump change – you know he’s a happy man to be getting out with that kind of money at this time. So now, Lufthansa has to figure out what to do with the airline which has 12% of all slots at Heathrow. Here are some possible options:

• Keep it Going – Lufthansa could continue to operate bmi as is, but this is highly unlikely. The airline is wasting slots on many smaller short haul routes, and it still has no Transatlantic presence out of Heathrow. Something will change. Besides, they’ve already announced the long haul Manchester flights go away in the New Year, so things are changing no matter what.




• Bring in Lufthansa’s Brand – Lufthansa could try to pull an Air France-style setup where bmi would disappear and Lufthansa could become a major player under its own name, especially on Transatlantic flights from London. This isn’t likely to have positive results, as Air France has shown. And there’s no reason to kill whatever local brand-loyalty there is already. I think it’s unlikely.


 

• Sell Pieces – Lufthansa could decide to cut out the pieces it likes. Maybe it wants to keep all the London slots and sell everything else to another regional carrier in the UK. I’d see this might be plausible and then it could keep what it wants to develop out.

 


• Tie Up with Virgin – This one could easily happen along with the previous one. Take the London slots, merge with Virgin Atlantic, and create a very strong London brand that’s far greater than what Virgin has now. Oh, and yes, bring Virgin Atlantic into Star Alliance. Virgin is clearly interested. Virgin’s CEO even says:

Everyone has speculated that it would make sense for Virgin Atlantic and BMI to combine their long-haul and short-haul networks. There is now a major opportunity to do that. I am sure that Lufthansa realises this could be a really good example of the right industry consolidation.

So, we’ve got a very interesting situation developing over there. If Virgin joins with Lufthansa, this would be a great gain for the Star Alliance and it would clearly not make BA happy. I’d say that might be the best bet right now and it’s one that Star Alliance members should be happy about. Since London Transatlantic flying is really hurting right now in the financial crisis, the time might be right to make this happen for a relatively low price.

Edited 11/6 @ 526p to reflect the purchase price of 400 million euros and not the absurdly low 400 euros. Oops.

You likely won’t be surprised to hear that I had a great time at the bachelor party this weekend, but that means I had very little time to write. So, since every travel blogger on earth has written about the announcement that Continental will be leaving SkyTeam, joining Star Alliance, and instituting a very tight partnership with United, I thought I’d just point to a couple of the more interesting posts I’ve seen.

Make no mistake, this is more than just a codeshare and frequent flier mile deal. Continental will join United, Lufthansa, and Air Canada in a joint venture for all transatlantic flying. Latin and Asia joint ventures will be developed as well. There will be broad systems integration as well.

In terms of routes, the rest of the Star Alliance will be happy to finally have a big international presence in New York. Dan Webb takes a look at route compatibility here.

If you’re a member of United’s Mileage Plus or Continental’s OnePass programs, this will certainly mean changes. Take a look at View From the Wing’s effort to breakdown what this may mean, despite the fact that we have very few details so far. His take? Well, it’ll be a good thing for Continental fliers, but it’s a little less clear for United loyalists.

We don’t know what this will mean for US Airways right now. Is three a crowd when it comes to the Star Alliance in the US? They say they aren’t going anywhere, but they also haven’t had talks with Continental about cooperation either. Could they partner with American now that CO/UA and DL/NW are getting together? Maybe. Or maybe they’ll try a different tactic, as Holly suggests here in PlaneBuzz.

For American fliers, this could be decent news as well. Strange, I know, but it could theoretically mean that getting antitrust immunity with British Airways would become easier, as Terri Maxon discusses on the Airline Biz blog.

There are a lot of different angles to this partnership with a ton of potential ramifications throughout the industry when it develops. I’ll keep you posted as I learn more.