It’s been a busy year south of the US border with all three alliances trying to make big land grabs in Latin America. So far, it looks like Star Alliance and oneworld are doing the best with Skyteam coming in a sad third. But these alliance loyalties are not static, and we could see more changes soon.

Let’s start with a map showing in which countries each alliance has a presence. This assumes that all announced members actually become members and it doesn’t include non-alliance partnerships. (For example, Gol may work with American but it’s not part of oneworld.)

Now let’s think about some of the major changes that altered this map in recent months. The list is enormous.

• oneworld member Mexicana went under, leaving Aeromexico’s Skyteam presence as the only one in Mexico
• Avianca and TACA merged and then decided to join Star Alliance
• Copa decided to join Star Alliance
• Aerolineas Argentinas decided to join Skyteam
• LAN acquired AIRES to give it a presence in Colombia

And that’s all pretty recent. Crazy stuff, right? So now we see Star Alliance having a stranglehold on Central America now that TACA and Copa will be in the same alliance. LAN rules the southwest of the continent with Avianca-TACA making strides in the northwest. And then there’s Brazil.

All eyes are on the most important market in Latin America these days. The big player in the country, TAM, is currently part of Star Alliance, but there is plenty of speculation about what will happen after its merger with LAN is completed. Will LAN come to Star? Will TAM go to oneworld? Or will the airlines both keep their respective alliances? My money is on the latter, if they can figure out a way to walk that tightrope.

Then again, Star has given itself a little cushion here. If TAM goes to oneworld, then Star will have the option of trying to help Avianca grow its Brazilian subsidiary, if it thinks it’s necessary. And LAN might want to bring TAM into oneworld to try to push off American’s growing relationship with Gol, right? This is better than a Mexican soap opera.

The one thing we can all agree on now is that Skyteam is mostly left out of this game. Sure, Aeromexico is a part of Skyteam but that’s far from where this fight is taking place. It’s a different market entirely. And Aerolineas Argentinas? Yeah, that’s one mess of an airline. As a government-owned entity, it’s not going anywhere, but it’s not exactly the alliance prize of Latin America.

Latin America is booming and there are a handful of very well run airlines down there (most prominently, LAN). This is going to be a fascinating area to watch as alliances look to cement relationships to give the best coverage in the region.

oneworld Alliance Surging, Adding Airlines — and Finally Offering Customers Some Perks – BNET Headwinds
oneworld is finally surging after years of being lame and boring. Finally.

Southwest Wages a Battle for Milwaukee in… Oshkosh? – BNET Headwinds
Southwest flew into Oshkosh last weekend. Why? It’s a battle for the hearts and minds of cheeseheads.

Air Berlin’s Alliance Move Signals Big Strategy Ambitions – BNET Headwinds
As a follow up to the oneworld piece, I thought it would be interesting to look at it from the Air Berlin side.

Alaska Airlines Competes For Bellingham via Honolulu – BNET Headwinds
Alaska is trying to beat Allegiant to the punch by starting flights from Bellingham to Hawai’i.

About 10 minutes after the Wright Brothers put their first airplane into the air, American and British Airways applied for blanket codesharing and antitrust immunity. More than 100 years later, their wish has finally been granted, at least by the US authorities. Yes, they have to give up some slots, but it’s a very minor number. I would be very happy if I were them.

Assuming this ruling becomes final and the EU goes along with it, American and British Airways frequent fliers should be able to burn their own miles on the other airlines’ airplanes between the US and Europe. You will also start to see American Airlines codes popping up on British Airways transatlantic flights and vice versa. Oh yeah, and it’s not just these two. BA’s darling Iberia, Royal Jordanian, and Finnair are a part of this as well, but they were never the hold-up. It was always all about access to Heathrow.

So what made it go through this time when it’s failed so many times in the past? Well, the open skies agreement between the US and the EU played a big part. Without it, the DOT said the outcome would likely have been different. With a new round of talks on opening the skies even further about to begin, I imagine the EU will be very conscious about the connection here when they decide to rule.

The order itself was 44 pages long, but it really could have been said in one page. The DOT decided that the harm to competition wasn’t enough to overcome the consumer benefits . . . for the most part. (Gee, strange that the exact same body felt differently about the US Airways/Delta slot swap ruling earlier this week.)

The one market that was singled out by the DOT was Boston to London/Heathrow. (The DOT stated that Heathrow is, in its eyes, a separate market from the other airports in London. That was one of the only things that they and Virgin Atlantic agreed on.) The Boston to London market is large and will effectively go down from 3 competitors to 2 when BA and AA are considered one. So what will the DOT do about it? They’re requiring BA and AA to give up some Heathrow slots.

The ruling actually will require 4 slot pairs to be divested. That’s it. Yes, Delta has to give up 14 in Washington, but these two only have to give up 4. (I know they’re different issues completely, but still, the juxtaposition is there.) Of those 4 pairs, two must be dedicated to Boston – Heathrow flights. The other two can be used from any US city to Heathrow.

Keep in mind, BA and AA don’t have to give up slots they currently use for transatlantic flights. They can take any slots as long as they are at times that are appropriate for transatlantic flying. And they don’t even have to sell the slots. They can just lease them for a reasonable amount and actually earn money on them. This would require leasing them for only 10 years and then BA and AA could use them again if they wanted.

Now, who the heck is going to want these slots? In Boston, I can only think Delta would be interested. But will Delta want to fly that twice a day? I don’t think the market is big enough for them. And who will want the other two? It seems to me that the US carriers who want to fly to Heathrow already fly there with the frequency they want. Maybe since these will be cheap enough, some other options will pop up on the radar screen, but I’m just a little skeptical. If nobody wants them, then that’s ok. BA/AA just have to make sure they’re available if anyone wants them during the next ten years.

As you might imagine, Virgin’s Richard Branson is just pissed off about this. He has by far been the most vocal opponent since his Virgin Atlantic subsidiary stands to lose the most, in his eyes. Now he has just 45 days to somehow convince the DOT that it’s wrong. I don’t think it’s going to happen. Maybe he’ll have better luck with the EU.

Social Media May be Hot, But It’s Not for Everyone – BNET
I look at social media at the Singapore Airshow to figure out why it matters. (In this case, I don’t think it does.)

Two Reasons Why Japan Air Lines Chose American and oneworld over Delta and SkyTeam -BNET
JAL has chosen American and oneworld, and I think there are really two reasons for it.

United Airlines Posts an Excellent January, Industry Traffic Data Roundup – BNET
Huge kudos to United for now offering revenue estimates each month. And January was a great month to start because they had stellar numbers.

Air New Zealand’s Secret Weapon: War Dances and Happy Customers – BNET
One more look at Air New Zealand’s culture thanks to a unique award acceptance speech that saw CEO Rob Fyfe go topless. (If this post sounds a bit odd, it’s because it’s the first one under the new policy that all posts at BNET go through an editor.)

American and British Airways Still Waiting for Feds Antitrust Immunity Decision – BNET
The waiting game continues as the DOT has gone past its own deadline for ruling on the BA/American deal. This is getting tiresome.

Capacity Restraint Leads to Fewer Empty Airline Seats in October – BNET
October traffic shows very few empty seats. Thank you, low fares.

US Airways Masks Frequent Flier Devaluations by Calling Them Customer Enhancements – BNET
US Airways has made over its frequent flier redemption, and while they claim its good for customers, that’s really just PR spin.

Holiday Season Is Upon Us – Flying Colors
One Cranky reader recommends Cranky Concierge for holiday travel for those who don’t already have their own airline dorks to help.

AirTran, SkyWest deal challenges traditional regional-airline model – Cleveland Plain Dealer
I was asked about my thoughts on whether this AirTran Skywest deal was truly innovative. Not so much.

American’s Firing of Mr X Becoming a Social Media Black Eye – BNET
American has fired Mr. X and the blogosphere is abuzz. Is American handling this right? I think you know the answer.

Melbourne Offers US Airways an Incentive that May Actually Work – BNET
You know I generally hate temporary airport incentives, but this is one that I don’t actually mind.