You cheeseheads may still be hurting from your second Favre-related beatdown this year, but you can rejoice that you now have yet another airline coming to town. SkyWest (yes, the regional airline) will begin flying for AirTran in Milwaukee.

It’s very clear that this is happening because of the AirTran deal, but it’s not your traditional regional contract. Then again, it’s not exactly the “innovative” and “groundbreaking” contract that these guys are proclaiming it is. This has been done before many times. The airplanes will say SkyWest on them, but you’ll have to go to AirTran to book. It’s a lot like the deal they had with Delta back in the day.

You may remember that SkyWest was flying as Midwest Connect until Republic came in and booted them out. Like most airlines, SkyWest has more 50 seat jets lying around than they need, so they figured they could just put them back into use on routes they know and love. Only now, they’ll get passengers from AirTran instead of Midwest.

The 50 seaters will fly from Milwaukee to Akron/Canton (Jan 5), Des Moines (Feb 11), Indianapolis (Jan 5), Omaha (Feb 11), Pittsburgh (Dec 4), and St Louis (Dec 4). All of those are Midwest markets except for Akron/Canton, which is a big airport for AirTran. Nice.

Some of you may remember AirTran’s last effort to use 50 seat jets. Back in 2002, they signed a deal with Air Wisconsin to fly as AirTran Jet Connect. That ended in 2004 when the airline realized 50 seat jets didn’t make much money. Some are already saying that this won’t work this time around, but this is a totally different model. This will work out just fine for AirTran, though SkyWest might not be as thrilled.

Before, it was a capacity purchase agreement which meant that AirTran bought the seats to resell under their own name and Air Wisconsin received a guaranteed profit. Now, it’s a prorate agreement. SkyWest is flying these routes at its own risk and AirTran gets to share in the revenue. So SkyWest has a big burden here while AirTran has none.

If you listen to the AirTran pilots, this is the end of the world. Their press release says “Outsourcing: Bad for Business.” Hmm, not so sure about that. They do say that AirTran passengers expect to be flown on AirTran planes and that means XM Radio, wireless internet, and business class. Hmm, maybe, but they aren’t going to get that from Milwaukee to these cities.

Granted, Pittsburgh, Indy, and St Louis have mainline service from AirTran right now, so this tells me that those flights are really weak. It’s either a 50 seater that has a shot at making money or no service at all. I’d say it’s good for business with that perspective.

I suppose it’s AirTran’s fault that the pilots are responding this way. Back when they discontinued JetConnect, AirTran said they “could operate the Boeing 717 more efficiently than the Canadair regional jets in short-haul markets.” They may have thought that sounded good at the time, but now the AirTran pilots want them to stand by that statement.

Unfortunately for the pilots, that’s just not true. When AirTran started JetConnect, they served three cities – Pensacola, Greensboro, and Savannah. Only Pensacola is still served by AirTran today. I guess those 717s didn’t work out as well as they hoped on those lighter routes.

In my mind, this comes down to just a couple of things. SkyWest has a bunch of 50 seaters lying around and is desperate to find a home for them. AirTran wants to continue to put the squeeze on Midwest in Milwaukee. Combine the two and, voila, you have a plan.

Will this work? If I had to place bets, I’d guess no, but hey, I’ve been wrong before. If I’m AirTran, I love this deal since I have absolutely no risk and I get to strengthen my network out of Milwaukee. If I’m SkyWest, well, it’s the best I can get right now, and that’s scary.

[Updated 11/5 @ 809s to clarify that this won't be sold under the SkyWest code]

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You would think that adding service to Minneapolis/St Paul, Boston, and New York/La Guardia would be enough for Southwest this year, but you’d be wrong. At the airline’s annual meeting yesterday, CEO Gary Kelly announced that Southwest will head to Milwaukee this fall. This is an old school, traditional move for Southwest, though there is a lot of competition awaiting their arrival.

Back before Southwest started flying into the heart of big congested airports, they used to like bracketing cities. Boston, for example, was served by Providence in the south and Manchester in the north. When they first went to Chicago’s Midway airport on the south side of town many years ago, it was just assumed that they would bracket the city by going into Milwaukee on the north some day. It took them long enough, but it’s finally happened.

For Southwest, this gives them access to many of the rich, northern Chicago suburbs that shudder at the thought of heading down traffic-choked roads to Midway. They prefer O’Hare, but Milwaukee isn’t too bad for some of them. North Chicago, for example, is 30 miles from O’Hare but only 45 miles from Milwaukee.

Of course, it’s not just about the northern suburbs of Chicago. There are the lovable cheeseheads in Wisconsin as well, and they must be jumping up and down at this bounty of new air service they’ve been receiving lately. It looked pretty bleak for Milwaukee when Midwest started its death spiral, but AirTran quickly came in and started building it up. Now to have Southwest too? It’s time for a polka party for the locals, but maybe not so much for the airlines. This could be like a mini-Denver situation where you have one legacy and two low cost carriers fighting it out. Only there’s a lot less demand here than in Denver.

I lump Delta, Northwest, and Midwest all into the legacy role held by United in Denver. Midwest is basically irrelevant. It’s a brand name with a couple of airplanes that basically exists as an arm of Delta. So let’s just say that Delta needs to decide what it wants to do in Milwaukee. Is it worth fighting? We’ll see.

But the real action is on the LCC-side of the house. Southwest started stepping on AirTran’s toes in Boston recently, and now this is a full frontal assault. It’s time for war. AirTran already serves most of the likely suspects for Southwest’s first routes (Phoenix, Vegas, Baltimore, Florida, etc). In fact, the only place where AirTran has a real hole that Southwest might like to fill is Texas. Of course, AirTran has limited frequency to most of these places (Phoenix is only seasonal), so Southwest would probably come in with a lot more firepower.

This also doesn’t look like it’s going to be a slow rollout. According to the press release, they will serve “multiple destinations from the airport of choice for business and leisure travelers who work and live across the vibrant and growing region.”

AirTran has to be pissed. They’ve been trying to secure Milwaukee as a good Midwestern base for some time. After their failed attempt to buy Midwest (Midwest’s loss, AirTran’s gain), they’ve been slowly building up their own operation as Midwest shrinks. Do they really plan to fight? Just after Southwest’s announcement, they thought it would be a good idea to remind people that they’re growing rapidly at the airport. And then this morning, they put out ANOTHER release about some Milwaukee flights that are launching. It’s on like Donkey Kong.

Meanwhile, this has to be the happiest group of airport folks on earth right now. Getting Southwest is a big win for Milwaukee which has tried to roll out the barrel for the airline for many, many years. To have both Southwest and AirTran fighting for supremacy is music to their ears. I imagine they’ve cracked open the champagne (of beers, naturally) to celebrate this one.

It’s good to see Southwest return to their roots a little bit here, but it’s not going to be easy. They’re trying to use some old-fashioned market stimulation in a mid-size city with a large metro catchment area to spark some growth. Only problem is that AirTran is there waiting for them, and they’ve got a lower cost structure.

I must admit I was initially really surprised to see Southwest open four cities this year alone, but I understand why they’ve done it. By adding cities, they can cut capacity elsewhere in the system without having to lay people off. In the past, Southwest could always grow themselves out of a jam, but now it takes a little more creativity. We’ll see how this fight goes.

[Original photo from Philgarlic via Flickr]

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AirTran’s long-awaited assault on Milwaukee is now in full force. Just this week, they announced twice daily flights to LAX and Boston as well as once daily flights to Seattle, San Diego, and San Francisco. Lastly, they’ll add a second daily nonstop to Vegas. How nice of them to announce this just as the Northwest/TPG acquisition of Midwest gets approved. These new flights all start in May. For more details, read the press release.

Now the fun begins. After AirTran was spurned by Midwest in favor of a Northwest/TPG combo, everyone was waiting for them to enter the market on their own. They’ve slowly built up service there, but this will be the biggest increase yet.

Will Midwest fight back? Will newfound-uncle Northwest step in to fight for them? Does AirTran have any chance of making this work? I’d say it’s definitely unclear, but you know there’s some response in the making.

What we do know is that this will mean looooow fares for Milwaukee until it all gets sorted out. If you live in Northern Illinois (or Eastern Iowa, as I often like to call my friend’s place in McHenry), you might want to look north for some good deals. Enjoy it while you can.