The DOT has decided that the proposed Delta/US Airways slot swap in New York and Washington is perfectly acceptable . . . as long as the airlines agree to sell off a bunch of the slots to new entrants first. I will be shocked if the airlines go for it, and that means that basically nobody wins. Way to go, DOT. (You can read the full ruling here.)

First, let’s refresh our memories on the details of the plan. US Airways will give up 125 slot pairs at LaGuardia along with terminal space. In return, Delta will give up 42 slot pairs at Washington/National and route authorities to Sao Paulo and Tokyo/Narita. The idea was to let each airline play to its strengths in its largest markets.

Delta has been focused on “winning” New York, as we all know by now. This was going to let them serve more cities from New York than they do now, and they said it would also let them move some flights from JFK to LaGuardia in order to focus on the international hub operation at JFK. They were going to maintain flights to the markets which US Airways was leaving but they would use regional jets instead of turboprops.

Down in DC, US Airways was much more detailed in its plans. It was going to pick up the markets that Delta left, but it was also going to add service to 8 cities that don’t see nonstop service from National today. The Tokyo and Sao Paulo flights were independent, but important for them to grow their international presence in markets that are highly restricted.

The plan seemed very smart to me. There are a lot more US Airways loyalists in DC and Delta loyalists in New York, so they likely would have been happy to have the additional service from their preferred carriers. Also, additional cities would have seen nonstop service to LaGuardia and National that they don’t see today.

But now, my guess is that this plan blows up unless Delta and US Airways figure out a way to sway the DOT’s opinion. Why do I say that? Well, the DOT was fine with the plan as long as the airlines sell off some slots first. They had the biggest concern in Washington where they required Delta to sell a full third (14) of the 42 slot pairs first. US Airways will have to sell off 20 slot pairs in New York.

And these aren’t just slot sales. They are sales to airlines that hold less than 5% of the slots at each airport. No cheating allowed – the sales can’t be to any airline that is owned by Delta/US Airways or even one that codeshares with them. That pretty much means it has to be to a low cost carrier.

If you’re US Airways, would you agree to give up 14 slot pairs to an airline that is likely going to compete with you head-on just to get 28 slot pairs? I think not. What’s worse is that the low cost carrier would undoubtedly just add service on routes that already have flights today. The smaller communities would lose out.

So if this holds, I imagine it means that deal is off. In fact, they’ve said as much. US Airways President Scott Kirby said in a letter to the troops,

At this point, while we are still analyzing the DOT’s proposed ruling, we expect that if the DOT’s order is implemented as proposed (there is a 30-day public comment period before the ruling becomes final) the transaction will not go forward.

That means that pretty much everyone loses, except for the DOT which can continue to try to claim that it has saved the traveler from paying high fares, something that I think is questionable. They seem to rest on that fact that higher carrier concentration automatically means higher fares, even if most of the routes will continue to see service by one carrier, just a different one than before. (See my review of competition on these routes.) Is there any salvaging this? I hope so.

One of the complaints the DOT raised in its response is as follows:

While the carriers have made public some of their new intended services, including new service to small communities, they have not released all intended service changes.

However, it is apparent that is the proposed transaction is approved, the carriers will increase the number of markets they serve on a monopoly or dominant basis. As the two carriers reposition at LGA and DCA, there is no assurance that all markets currently being served by the departing carrier will be maintained by the new carrier.

Maybe if Delta and US Airways came out with specific service plans and included a guarantee to serve the smaller communities for a certain amount of time, the DOT would look at this differently. That would be the last gasp that I can imagine. Otherwise, it looks like the deal is dead, and nobody wins.

US Airways Pilots Infighting Grows Worse by the Day – BNET
It appears the US East pilots are tired of fighting the west pilots. Now they’re turning on each other. Unreal.

Airline Capacity Cuts Slow in December, Some Carriers See Growth – BNET
December traffic numbers show some interesting trends.

United Pushes International Presence with Muddled Marketing Message in Denver Fight – BNET
United is heading back to its Independence Air playbook in its fight in Denver.

Boeing’s Loss of 787-3 Orders is Good News – BNET
When is a canceled order a good thing? When it allows Boeing to walk away from the 787-3.

Sean Menke Leaves Frontier Airlines, This Can’t Be Good – BNET
Sean Menke is leaving Frontier and Republic, and that doesn’t bode well for the airline.

Short Haul Air Travelers Aren’t Buying Premium Tickets, May Be a Permanent Change – BNET
Premium air traffic numbers are looking a bit better on long haul, but short haul travel is still feeling the pain.

Southwest Rings in the New Year with an Aggressive Denver Push – BNET
Southwest isn’t giving up on Denver – in fact, it’s kicking up its efforts there. People in Colorado are lucky.

a new year brings new air travel security rules – AntiBride.com
My first post for AntiBride in the new year talks about the newest security rules.

Allegiant’s Unique Aircraft Order Highlights A Different Model – BNET
Allegiant just ordered 18 new planes, 5 simply for parts, and they probably paid less for all these planes than you would for a single new 737-800. Oh yeah.

US Airways Nearly Achieves Unit Revenue Growth in December – BNET
Positive revenue growth? Not quite, but we’re almost there. It’s nice to see.

Getting “Cranky” Over the Parasite Blogger Myth – Starkman & Associates Blog
Eric Starkman has a very nice piece on the legitimacy of blogging vs traditional media, and Cranky features prominently.

Don’t Fly Cranky, Fly WITH Cranky Concierge! – AirlineReporter.com
I spoke with David Parker Brown about Cranky Concierge and he likes what he sees.

Airline Financials Should Get a Boost From Stellar Operational Performance – BNET
November was just a great month for airline operations, and that’s bound to result in a nice cost savings.

Mesa Air Group has finally filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy after a very long downhill slide. I imagine that there’s not a single person in the airline industry surprised by this move. What does this mean for you, the traveler? Nothing. Yet.

This is a Chapter 11 filing, so Mesa is hoping to restructure itself and slash its fleet from 177 to 101 airplanes (PDF). I spoke with Paul Skellon, VP of Mesa’s go! subsidiary, and he assured me that this isn’t like most bankruptcies you see. They have enough cash to cover their operation so they don’t actually need any debtor-in-possession financing. It seems that this filing is all about breaking contracts – they want to ditch a bunch of airplanes that they aren’t using and get lower rates on the ones they’re keeping.

Right now, Mesa has 177 airplanes to its name. Incredibly, a whopping 52 of those are parked:

• 20 Beechcraft 1900 19 seat turboprops haven’t been used for a long time
• 3 Bombardier Dash-8 turboprops have joined them
• 17 Bombardier CRJ-200 50 seat jets are sitting in the desert
• 12 Embraer ERJ-145 50 seat jets are parked

In addition to that, United will be ending its contract for 7 Dash 8s and 18 CRJ-200s in the near future. Mesa says it wants to ditch those 76 airplanes. That will leave them with a mere 101 airplanes left as follows.

• 6 Bombardier Dash-8s with US Airways
• 8 Bombardier CRJ-200s with US Airways
• 5 Bombardier CRJ-200s with go!
• 22 Embraer ERJ-145s with Delta
• 2 Embraer ERJ-145s subleased out
• 20 Bombardier CRJ-700s with United
• 38 Bombardier CRJ-900s with US Airways

Now, the question is this . . . will they survive? It’s in the hands of the judge. United and Delta have been ending contracts with Mesa as quickly as possible, so you know they’d be happy to walk away and have someone else take over this flying. An April 2009 prospectus last year noted that if either Mesa or its codeshare partners (US Airways, Delta, United) file bankruptcy, the other party can terminate. Paul Skellon wasn’t able to comment on whether this clause was still in effect, and my calls to other people at Mesa went unanswered. I heard back from Brian Gillman, Mesa’a EVP, General Counsel, and Secretary and he confirmed that those bankruptcy clauses are unenforceable. They are only included in case the laws change in the future.

This is a bit of a gamble for Mesa. Even if they don’t need the money and they can get around the bankruptcy clauses, they still need the bankruptcy judge to agree to let them break their contracts. The largest unsecured creditors are aircraft lessors and owners: Wells Fargo, Bombardier, Embraer, and GE, companies that all have larger relationships with Delta, United, and US Airways. Would any of them really be adversely impacted if Mesa disappeared? Probably not. They could just find someone else to do the flying. I wonder how the judge will feel about this.

I could see ExpressJet jumping at the chance to operate the ERJs in exchange for a long term deal with Delta. And Republic and SkyWest/ASA would probably fight for at least a piece of the business as well. I just don’t see who wins by having Mesa survive except for Mesa itself. If the judge decides not to let them break contracts, then this could turn ugly.

That, of course, doesn’t mean Mesa won’t come out of this in the end. Even if Mesa doesn’t make it out, I imagine that one piece will survive – go!, the one piece that isn’t involved in the bankruptcy filing. Now that go! and Mokulele have combined in a joint venture, they’ve become the only major competitor to Hawaiian within Hawai’i. Maybe Island Air would be interested in stepping up, but really, there is room for a second airline and right now, that’s go!

If you’re booked on a Mesa-operated flight, I wouldn’t worry. I asked Delta, United, and US Airways if they were allowing people to change from Mesa-operated flights to other flights. As expected, they aren’t. Nothing is changing . . . yet.

So we’ll see how this bankruptcy case goes. It’s definitely a unique situation, and I’m curious to see how it plays out.

Updated 1/7 @ 1257p to reflect Mesa’s comment on the bankruptcy clause in contracts

New York Snowstorm Sees Delta Start Canceling Earlier Than JetBlue, American – BNET
You may have been stranded but from an operational perspective, the airlines did pretty well at JFK during this major snowstorm.

US Airways and Continental See Different Fortunes with United at Washington/Dulles – BNET
As Continental ramps up Dulles, US Airways cuts back. Clearly they’re each seeing different opportunities with United.

Three Reasons Why Delta Slashed First Class Fares Between New York and the West Coast – BNET
Delta made some pretty steep cuts to First Class fares between New York and LA/SF last week. Here’s why I think they did it.

Airlines find coach travelers willing to pay extra for perks – Chicago Sun Times
This week, the Sun Times took on the issue of fees, and I was asked to comment.