I’d like to welcome those of you who are visiting me for the first time thanks to my summer travel tips posted today on Nuts About Southwest. Take a look around, and if you like what you see, you can subscribe via RSS or email. Please jump in and join the conversation in the comments section while you’re here!

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After being ditched by ATA for that slutty bankruptcy court (I mean, who hasn’t been with her?), it looks like Southwest has found its next dance partner. The airline announced yesterday that it would begin codesharing with Canada’s WestJet next year. This is good news, but it’s more interesting as a symbol of what’s to come than anything else.

In short, nothing was really announced yesterday except for the intent to partner. In fact, it won’t happen for a long time. The release says that the “airlines plan to announce codeshare flight schedules and additional features regarding the partnership by late 2009.” So it’s a long way off.

When it does happen, you can probably expect a similar partnership as to what we saw with ATA back in the day. Interline baggage, frequent flier integration, and codesharing will all be part of this deal. What’s different?

Well, there is an interesting little bit noting that “southwest.com will soon become a distribution channel for WestJet’s existing Canadian and transborder flights, providing Customers the opportunity to purchase WestJet’s existing flights via southwest.com.” That IS interesting. So you’ll be able to book WestJet flights through Southwest’s website even if no Southwest flight is involved.

Not even the AirTran/Frontier partnership allows that. They still send you to the other airline’s site for booking. I suppose this seems closest to the Northwest/KLM arrangement. There is no KLM website in the US and there is no Northwest website in Europe. Then again, I doubt that WestJet will ditch their US site entirely.

This clearly seems like a win-win to me. For WestJet, it offers their flights on the most popular airline site in the US. I’m sure Southwest is getting a sweet commission deal out of this, so it’s good news for them as well. Nice little attempt at ancillary revenue, even if it is a pretty small opportunity. (Yeah Canada, I’m talking aboot you.)

So why is this so important? Well, as they mentioned in their blog post, Southwest’s exec team has spoken for years about how they wanted to be able to fly internationally. Though Canada barely counts, this indicates that Southwest now has (or will soon have) the booking capabilities set up to allow for international travel. I’d expect to see codesharing south of the border come up as well. Caribbean? Mexico? It’s coming. Europe? Maybe someday.

And that’s the really big news here. Southwest is no longer caged in the US. The airline is roaming free and is on the prowl.

Yesterday, American announced the details of its fall flight cuts and the big surprise to me is how deep New York/LaGuardia flying is going to be cut. Meanwhile, United announced it was pulling out of two fairly large cities, Ft Lauderdale and West Palm Beach, as well as from several international routes. On the flip side, Southwest said it will drop a couple routes but add several as well, mostly in Denver and Florida. Let’s get to it.

American
Let’s start with American since that was much bigger in scope. It appears that Miami comes off unscathed while Dallas/Ft Worth will see 5% of flights go and Chicago/O’Hare will lose more than 12%. That looks good in comparison to St Louis (down 27%) and astoundingly, New York/LaGuardia which will be down 33% from 126 departures a day to only 84.

None of those shock me except for the LaGuardia pulldown. For the longest time, airlines have clamped down on congested airport fortresses like LaGuardia and Washington/National, and have not been willing to let slots and gates go. LaGuardia has always been one of those places that you just assumed wouldn’t see massive cuts from the incumbent carriers, because no matter how bad things got, the value of those slots would always be worth it when things got better . . . or at least that WAS conventional wisdom.

This cut tells me that American has decided that nothing is sacred, and that’s a good thing. They can’t continue to lose money on bad flights in the short term just because they might be better in the long run. This is time to make some serious survival decisions and they’re doing it.

Of course, they’re not going to do it quietly. They’ve now petitioned the government to reduce slots at LaGuardia by 20% in the name of improving operations. Yeah, right. In other words, we want to pull down flights but we don’t want to allow anyone to take our place. Hmm, 42 daily flight openings would make a nice little operation for Southwest, huh?

A quick note about the rest of the cuts. Overall, American will mostly be cutting frequencies, but a few cities will see American disappear completely. We already knew about Oakland, Samana (Dominican Republic) and London/Stansted, but now Barranquilla (Colombia), Albany, Providence, Harrisburg, and San Luis Obispo go as well. San Luis Obispo also loses its maintenance base. I’m guessing that may have been where they maintained the now disappearing Saab 340 fleet, which would make sense.

United
Now let’s look at our other route cutter. First, United will pull out of Ft Lauderdale and West Palm Beach. These aren’t small cities, and it’s really amazing that United’s presence has eroded to the point where the airline ends up dropping places like this. United gave up on Florida a few years ago when it became virtually all-Ted. All the decent money around these areas would have fled to other carriers, if it was even at United in the first place. Besides, United could get you to Dulles, but Florida is a New York kind of market. Oh well, I guess they’ll just have to codeshare with US Airways and Continental now.

The bigger cuts for the airline are coming internationally. The recently launched Denver - London/Heathrow and LAX - Frankfurt flights are gone, so is San Francisco to Taipei and Nagoya. There will be some other schedule shifts as well as United prepares to ditch 6 747-400s and to start Dulles - Moscow and Dubai flights. I think the international pain is just beginning.

Southwest
Lastly, (man this post is long), let’s look at Southwest’s announcement today about its fall schedule. Nothing too crazy or surprising here. I mean, they’re beefing up Florida, as any airline would do once summer is over (uh, except United I guess). Oh, and the Denver onslaught continues. Southwest moves into yet another Frontier market - Denver to Orange County - as well as one that isn’t competitive - Denver to Tulsa. Oh, and eleven of the existing Denver markets get increased frequency, including 3 new flights to Chicago/Midway alone. Wow. I guess they had to do something to replace a lot of the long haul frequencies from Midway that are being cut back. And two routes will go away entirely - Oakland to Tucson and Kansas City to Sacramento.

If you’d like to see more detail, here’s the PDF with all of Southwest’s fall schedule changes.

(Original LaGuardia Tower Image from 10cuidados on Flickr)

Word on the street is that Southwest is having computer problems right now. I’m hearing reports that online check-in isn’t working (or at least not working 100% of the time) and that the airports are crazy. Well, so far I’ve only heard that Phoenix is crazy, but it would stand to reason that others may be in similar shape. Southwest Reservations doesn’t have any info.

Does anyone out there know anything more?

Update: Sounds like there was a computer outage at some point today, but it was pretty short and it’s fixed now. All is well.

I really can’t let Herb’s departure as Chairman go without a little more color. I mean, he’s an absolute legend in this business, and he deserves a proper send off (not that I can really live up to that). So, here are a couple of video links that I recommend watching.

First, take a look at the 1988 commercial called “The Unknown Flier” (second one down). The story behind this video, if I recall correctly, was that one of the founders of America West (not sure which one) said he’d be embarrassed to fly Southwest because of its cattle car mentality. (Is someone remember this story better, please comment below.) Well, Herb and his team came up with this fantastic response. Talk about being clever . . . .

Second, I’d recommend heading over to the Dallas Morning News for a clip montage of Herb’s final annual meeting yesterday. It’s a great collection of video that I think sums him up quite well, from what I know of him. You can see a guy who genuinely cares about people, tells it like it is, and definitely loves that airline. We need more people like that in the industry.

It was a sentimental day over in Dallas yesterday when Herb Kelleher officially stepped down as Chairman of the Board of Southwest Airlines. It won’t, however, be the end of his involvement with the airline. He’s still going to be around for at least 5 years. Apparently he’ll be focusing on getting a more fuel efficient replacement for the airline’s 737s. Rumor has it that the new plane will be powered by Wild Turkey.

With the end of Herb’s tenure in Southwest management comes the end of an era of true airline people. I know, it’s funny to say that since Herb is a lawyer by trade, but he knew how to run an airline. And drink. And smoke. A lot. He’s not the corporate-type, and he’s not afraid to be very blunt. There’s really nobody made of that kind of metal anymore. Crandall is gone, so is Bethune, and so are countless others who built this industry on their own backs. It really is the end of a era.

So it was fitting that at the same time this happened, American stepped into a new era for the airline industry. The plentiful and cheap seats that we’ve known for a long time are history . . . at least until (if?) fuel costs begin to subside. American was just the first one to take the plunge.

American not only announced that it would slash domestic capacity in the fourth quarter by 11 to 12%, but it also said it would retire at least 75 aircraft and it would start charging $15 to check your FIRST bag. The second bag will still be $25. Why are they doing this? We’ve talked about it a million times. High fuel costs + weakening demand = doom and gloom in the airline industry. But more important than “why” is “what” does it mean to you as a traveler?

The capacity cut will help keep fares up after the heavy summer travel season has passed. So get ready to continue to pay more. Start readjusting your sense of what a fair fare would be, because it’s going to need to be higher.

No details have been released as to which flights will be going away, and American never responded to my query, but we do know that 40 to 45 of the planes will be mainline, another 35 to 40 will be RJs, and there will be an undisclosed number of turboprops going away as well.

Of those mainline planes, most will be, as expected, the gas-thirsty MD-80s that are either now bound to fly for Allegiant or be earthbound for Miller Brewing Co. Those flight cuts could come from anywhere in the US, but I have to think that St Louis is going to see further shrinkage. Meanwhile, they’re also retiring some of the A300s. These are exclusively flown to the Caribbean, so you’ll see smaller planes, if not fewer flights, down there. There will also be RJs and turboprops going away. I’m not sure where the cuts will be, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see the California turboprop flying disappear as well as some of the west coast regional flying. This is, of course, all speculation.

And then there are the baggage fees. Oh boy, what a can of worms this opens. It’s funny that AA was the lone holdout on the fee for checking a second bag for a long time, but now they’re the first to jump right in and charge for the very first bag. This is going to be an ugly transition period.

Now, people will do anything they can to avoid checking a bag. But wait, you still can’t bring liquids over 3 oz through security, so what can you do? Well, you can try to sneak liquids in, and I’m sure many people will. You can just suck it up and pay the fee for checking bags as well, and some will have to do that. I think it’s a safe bet that most people will try to cram as much as they can into a carry-on, and that leads to filled overhead bins and possibly some pretty ugly fights at the gate. What if the overheads are full? Will they charge you to gate-check your bag? There are so many painful operational scenarios here that would keep any customer service agent up at night.

But ultimately, it was American’s realization that as fuel costs continue their upward trajectory, they really don’t have a choice. This is truly the least imaginative way to raise money, but it’s the EASIEST way. Raising fares isn’t even as easy as this. And right now, they’re going for quick and easy. So, once again, brace yourselves when you have to travel. This is going to contribute to an even more difficult experience at the airport. Practice meditating and lay off the coffee when you’re heading out on a flight. The industry is going to be fundamentally changing, and it’s not going to be pleasant while it happens. Hopefully, when things settle down, airlines (existing or new) will find a better way to do business, but for now . . . yikes.

Let’s face it. It sucks to have to book travel right now. Ok, it clearly sucks to actually be an airline far more, but we’ve beaten that horse to death already. So why do I say it’s so bad to book? Uncertainty.

With my wedding coming up in October, there are a ton of flight arrangements that need to be made. There are showers, receptions, and more, and they all require family members hopping on aircraft to criss-cross the country.

Now, I know fares are high. That’s fine. I have no complaints about that at all. In fact, I’d complain if they weren’t. But if I buy a ticket, I want to make sure that flight will actually go. Unfortunately, that’s not something that we can really rely upon as much these days.

I started thinking about this when JetBlue pulled their LAX service before it even started. Now just about every other airline has decided to reduce capacity, so buying a ticket is like a game of chance. Will your flight still be there when it comes time to travel?

So, I’ve tried to put together some pieces of advice on how to best position yourself to have your flight actually exist when you go to travel. Here are my somewhat feeble thoughts. Sorry I don’t have anything more substantial, but everything is so fluid right now that it’s tough to really know how to deal with this best.

• Fly During Busy Times - That 8am flight to Chicago isn’t going away, but maybe that 6a or 10p flight will. When airlines look to cut flights, you’ll generally see it happen at off peak times. Sure, the flip side here is that the peak times will cost more, but that’s the price you’ll pay.




• Don’t Fly Northwest or Delta - Yes, this is being pretty harsh. And yes, I’m actually flying Northwest in August, so why do I say not to fly them? Well, they’re merging, and though their pleas to Congress have stated that they won’t be cutting service, I think that’s a load of crap. My guess is that flights will be cut, and smaller hubs will be shrunk significantly, regardless of what they say now. They’ve even started to hint about it. So, if you’re booking very far out, you might want to keep that in mind. Even if the merger were approved tomorrow, I wouldn’t expect major cuts to begin until after the summer. If you do end up flying on these guys (or any airlines that decide to merge), at least try to avoid marginal hubs like Cincinnati and Memphis for your connections. Those will likely see the greatest impact, I’d think.




• If You’re in Denver, Fly Southwest - As we’ve seen often over the last few months, Southwest is hell-bent on kicking Frontier out of Denver. So, they’re actually adding flights instead of cutting them. To be fair, they aren’t really doing much cutting elsewhere in the system either, so they might be a good one to book in general. Then again, what they’ve done so far isn’t necessarily an indicator of how they’ll behave in the future.




• Don’t Book Too Far in Advance - The easiest thing to do is wait until it’s closer to your travel time before booking. When flights get cut, there will be some advance notice, so if you’re traveling within a month, you should be fine (unless you were flying JetBlue to LAX, I suppose). I know this flies in the face of conventional wisdom, and yes, you’ll have to pay for more this privilege, but it will give you more certainty.




• Keep Your Fingers Crossed - If you can’t drive, there’s really not much else you can do but keep your fingers crossed and hope that your flight goes. I know I make this sound like every flight is at risk, and that’s not the case. I’d like to think that I’m overstating the possibilities here, but it’s better to think about these things beforehand. The good news is that if flights get cut, you’ll be reaccommodated on another flight on that airline, but it may not be as convenient as you’d like.

It’s a tough time to be a traveler right now. So, just be patient and hope that your flight doesn’t get cut. What other tips do you have out there?

Hey everyone. I made it back from Peru yesterday morning, and let’s just say it’s going to be a VERY busy end to the week. I hope you enjoyed the guest posts while I was gone, and hopefully we’ll get both Henry and Benet to return at some point in the near future. I think I’m going to spend the rest of this week catching up on snippets of what happened while I was gone. You’ll see more in depth discussion about my trip which included new airlines, airports, and airplanes, starting on Monday. For now, let’s see what I missed while I was away.

Continental Tells United to F*&# Off - This was a welcome surprise, I must say. Continental decided that it won’t be merging with United or anyone else for that matter. That left United to go lick its wounds and see if US Airways would come out and play. Meanwhile, Continental, not exactly thrilled at the prospect of playing second fiddle to DL/NW in SkyTeam has started looking elsewhere as well, including a possible oneworld membership.

Eos Won’t See Another Dawn - Just before I left, Eos quietly disappeared from the skies. This one is a little bittersweet for me, because I actually worked with the founder back in 2003 as he was just getting this idea off the ground. I always believed in the idea, but it was going to be tough to succeed even with fuel prices at lower levels. With fuel where it is, the only funding available appears to have been from foreign sources and that wouldn’t have worked with existing foreign ownership rules.

Virgin America Pumps Up the Frequency - You know I’ve been strongly against Virgin America’s strategy of entering highly competitive markets with low frequencies. Well it looks like the airline has finally realized that’s a bad idea. Business travelers will see a more frequent flight schedule on transcontinental routes as well as Seattle to SFO. While I still think these are bound to lose a ton of money with fuel where it is, it’s still the right strategy (except for that SFO-SEA route), if there is such a thing for them at this point.

JetBlue Goes Ex-LAX - While Virgin America builds up, JetBlue walks away. The airline now says it will “delay” its new LAX service. The airline says fuel is too expensive, but you know that also means revenue isn’t where they wanted it to be. It must have been really bad to cancel this service within a few weeks of it starting. This is of course good for Virgin America, but it also shows how hard this market is. Congrats to JetBlue for not being afraid to walk away.

Alaska Throws Down with Virgin America - Alaska, meanwhile, is not going to throw Virgin America a bone at all. Right after Virgin said it would beef up flights between SFO and Seattle, Alaska said it would do the same. Oh, and how about some double miles on the route? This looks like a losing battle for Virgin America, but Alaska’s going to bleed in the process.

Southwest Turns the Knife Further - Fresh off the latest round of Denver increases, Southwest is at it again. On August 4, the airline will start nonstops to Ft Lauderdale, New Orleans, and Sacramento. You’ll also find another daily nonstop to Phoenix. The good news for Frontier? Um, well, they don’t fly to New Orleans, so, uh, that’s good, right? Also, in unrelated Southwest news. If you haven’t seen Southwest’s new blog setup, check it out. The airline continues to be leaps and bounds ahead of anyone else.

That’s all for today. You can expect an international edition of what I missed tomorrow. Then I’ll have more on Peru next week.

It’s hard to write so many posts in advance of a long trip, so I asked my coworker and Cranky Photographer, Christopher Craig, to pick out a photo from his collection that I could post while I’m gone. Now keep in mind, I wrote this post on April 26, and I’m just going to guess that there’s been more merger activity since then. So, has this merger happened yet?

I’d like to blame this ridiculous idea on my brain not getting enough oxygen at the high Peruvian altitudes, but I guess I already told you I wrote this before I left. Oh well. My plane is landing as this post goes live (assuming we’re on time), so I guess I’ll find out what really happened soon enough. I’ll be back posting on my regular schedule again tomorrow.

Poor Frontier. When they look out their windows, they must see Canyon Blue-colored vultures circling the premises. There’s no question that Southwest is going in for the kill. This week, Southwest said it would once again pump up its Denver flying.

First, here are the details. On June 4, Southwest will add an eighth daily nonstop between Denver and Vegas. The airline will also start twice daily service between Denver and both Portland and Indianapolis. On August 23, San Antonio gets a second flight from Denver.

The Southwest route map from Denver is starting to look quite similar to the Frontier map. Really, the big cities are mostly covered and now Southwest is getting into the secondary ones. To compound the problem, Frontier also announced this week that it would be terminating its contract with Republic to do some regional flying for them. That means they will no longer serve Missoula, Sioux City, Jacksonville, Little Rock, Tulsa, and former mini-hub Memphis. None of those are cities to which Southwest flies nonstop from Denver, so that means Frontier will only have even MORE exposure to the airline. The Republic service must have been an unbelievably poor performer for Frontier to want to ditch it that quickly.

This effectively leaves Lynx and its small fleet of Q400s (they launched Durango the same day this Southwest release came out) to keep the airline away from Southwest, but that’s not going to really cut it. Sadly, Frontier’s time may be up soon.

The airline is in bankruptcy, very low on cash, and looking for funding. With Southwest moving in heavily on Frontier’s only stronghold, I think it’s going to be tough to find someone willing to pour money into the airline. It’s sad, because I really like flying Frontier, but I just don’t know how they can get out of this mess.

It’s been awhile since I put up some good airplane porn, huh? Well, let’s break that streak. Southwest has a long history of painting airplanes to look like the state flags of its biggest operation locations. Texas, Arizona, and California, for example, have them, but there’s been a gaping hole for some time . . . Illinois.

So now they’ve painted a plane to look like the state flag of Illinois. Since Southwest took over ATA’s space at Chicago/Midway, they’ve really grown like a weed, so this seems appropriate. And speaking of weed . . .

Am I the only one thinks this Eagle looks like he’s got a pot leaf in one claw while he tears through someone’s artery with his beak? Ok, maybe I am the only one. Southwest’s PR team sent this to me, and I must admit that the eagle hanging out in front of the plane is a little intimidating.

In case you wondered what the Illinois state flag actually looks like . . .

Hmm, it definitely is a little easier to see what’s going on when you see the flag. That’s not an easy one to put on to a plane, but it’s a lot better than, oh, Maryland.