Unfortunately, we don’t know a ton of details about American’s plans just yet. We do know that American will buy 100 more current generation 737s, 100 737s with new, more efficient engines, 130 current generation A320 series airplanes, and 130 A320neo (new engine option) series airplanes. That comes to a total of 460. How will this massive buy fit into the airline’s fleet? That remains to be seen since American hasn’t said which versions of each series it will take. But we do know something.

When this order is fully filled, the MD-80, 757, and 767-200 will have disappeared from American’s fleet. The MD-80 retirement is no surprise. American has slowly been replacing those with 737-800s, and this will be the nail in the coffin for the older technology, less fuel efficient “Mad Dog” aircraft. I know a lot of people hate MD-80s, but I do have a special place for them. Soon enough, there won’t be any Douglas airplanes flying. Sad.

But time marches on, and it was a given that this would happen. Today, American has 214 MD-80s left in the fleet with 154 737-800s. There were previously 54 737-800s on order, so really, there were just 160 MD-80s that still needed to be replaced. That will undoubtedly happen with the 737 and A320 current generation airplanes on order in some form.

Then there’s the 757. It’s a great airplane that uniquely can fly passengers across the Pond to Europe, over to Hawai’i and into a variety of hot and high locations with ease. No other airplane has been able to duplicate this with so few seats, and even though it’s out of production, the airplane is still a strong performer. American has decided that it can replace it, but I don’t think that will be with one airplane. The 737 can do Hawai’i, the A321neo and next gen 737s should be able to get to Europe. It probably won’t be a one size fits all solution, but with these new-engined airplanes, there is finally a way to replace the 757.

The 767-200 is a niche airplane that primarily flies the JFK to LA and SF routes. That will be easy to replace, and probably should be toast sooner rather than later.

That’s pretty much what we know. The problem, as mentioned, is that we don’t know which airplanes in the series American will actually take. It notes that it has flexibility and can opt for any family member in each series, specifically the 737-700, 737-800, 737-900ER and the A319, A320, and A321 are mentioned. So what will the counts look like of each? We don’t know, and American probably doesn’t know either. The airline does like to talk about what amazing flexibility it has in this deal. It can make changes as it sees fit over time. One thing is clear; this will add a lot of airplanes to the fleet, and it reintroduces Airbus into the Boeing-loyal airline.

I’m still surprised that American bothered ordering from both Boeing and Airbus. It seems to me that Airbus had this thing sewn up thanks to Boeing’s refusal to move on an heir apparent to the 737 while Airbus had the A320neo. When Boeing finally budged (note that the new engine 737 isn’t approved yet by Boeing’s board but is part of the order), it was able to squeeze back in to the race. But why not pick one over the other? It would seem that with a re-engined option, one manufacturer could fill the need. But I think it’s all about money.

As part of this deal, there’s no doubt that American went back and forth to both manufacturers and played them off each other. They got the absolute best deals they could and then, they took them both. That’s a great move. There will be enough airplanes in each fleet to really not make much of a difference whether there’s one type or two. And this way, American can walk away with big money. In fact, the first 230 deliveries are already covered by financing from the two manufacturers. It’s like American is the kid who went up to its parents and asked for money . . . and dad handed over his whole wallet.

But with all these massive orders, American is still going to have a lot more airplanes than it has today. Let’s assume that American retires all its 757s, 767-200s, and MD-80s. That’s 299 airplanes out of the fleet but 460 coming in. Huh? That’s huge growth, and it doesn’t even count the options. I can’t imagine a need for that much growth, so how will this play out?

Some of it could be counting on the new-engined aircraft replacing some of the current generation 737s and A320s that come in, but there could be more to it. And that could lie with American Eagle.

American also announced that it will go ahead in spinning off American Eagle into a separate company. As part of that, the Eagle pilots got a guaranteed path into American with 35 percent of new hire pilots at American required to come from Eagle. American likes to say that it’s spinning off Eagle so that it can fly on its own and can start working for other airlines as well. Yeah, right. Eagle is expensive compared to other providers, and its chances aren’t great for getting new flying. The reality is that American really just wants to start looking for other airlines to do some of its express flying for less. So it spins Eagle off and slowly shrinks it into oblivion.

But remember, today American flies nothing smaller than the 140 seat MD-80. What if it chooses to get A319 and 737-700 airplanes as part of this order? You figure those would fly in around a 120 to 124 seat configuration. With that smaller airplane, could American start bringing mainline flights back to places that are served with 70 seaters today?

It might be a stretch, especially since my assumption is that the pilots aren’t going to work for less to win that flying back. But there are a lot of routes out there that are on 70 seaters today, like Chicago to Atlanta, that might work better with a larger airplane. American hasn’t had that type of capacity for years, so we have no idea how the airline would use it. But it could be a way of reducing dependence on Eagle, if labor is willing to take on the challenge.

In the end, we really don’t know what American’s strategy is. I doubt American even fully knows what it’s going to do with all these airplanes. But it is encouraging to see the airline make these moves. American is finally, actually, going to try to do something about its cost problem instead of continuing to whine about how others will eventually catch up. With sweetheart financing from the manufacturers and much more fuel efficient aircraft, this should help the airline keep costs down. If only we had more details to know for sure . . .

[Original Aircraft Photo via Flickr user JF10/CC 2.0]

Paris and Farnborough (in the UK) take turns being the premier air show every other year. This year, it’s Paris. There are definitely some very cool flying demos, including the A380 (despite yet another wingtip mishap that almost scrubbed the flight) and a bunch of military flights as well. Why do they bother? They’re trying to get sales. Some airlines, aircraft manufacturers, and suppliers like to hold out to make a big splash at an air show with a big order.

This has never made sense to me. If I were ordering some airplanes, I’d rather tell the manufacturer to save all that wasted money thrown into air show displays and pass the savings along to me. But that’s not how it works. Instead, everyone goes and hangs out in the individual company “chalets” and has a grand old time. During leaner years, the smiles are few and far between, but so far we’re off to a hot start in Paris with almost 300 aircraft orders on the first day alone.

Take a look at some of the aircraft orders that have been announced so far. These are just aircraft orders. There are plenty of other deals with suppliers for a variety of other things as well.

• Air Lease, the new big aircraft lessor started by former ILFC chief Steven Udvar-Hazy signed up for 50 of the next generation Airbus A320neos with options for 11 more down the road. The company also ordered 20 Boeing 737-800s with 4 options, 11 Airbus A330s, 5 Boeing 777-300ERs, 5 Embraer 190s, 4 Boeing 787-9s, 1 lonely Airbus A321, and a partridge in a pear tree. All of these will be leased out to different airlines.
• Aircraft lessor GECAS ordered 60 of the Airbus A320neos. It also picked up 15 ATR 72 turboprops with 15 options along with 2 Embraer 190s. Rumor has it we can expect 2 Boeing 747-8 freighters to be ordered today. As with Air Lease, these will all be leased out.
• SAS out of Scandinavia ordered 30 of the Airbus A320neos and kept 11 options. SAS has struggled a lot lately, so hopefully they’re still around when it comes time to take delivery. These will replace the older MD-80s.
• Sriwijaya Air (say that three times fast) ordered 20 Embraer 190s to fly around Indonesia along with another 10 purchase rights. What’s the difference between a purchase right and an option? I have no clue.
• Kenya Airways ordered 10 Embraer 190s with options for 10 more.
• Bombardier picked up an order for 10 of its new C-Series airplanes with 6 options from a mystery buyer. This will be a launch customer. So who is it? We don’t know, but we do know that Bombardier says it’s a “major network carrier.” I’m eagerly awaiting news of who that might be, but I can’t imagine it’s a US-based airline.
• Boeing received one order for 15 of its 747-8s and another for two of the big birds. Who ordered them? It’s a secret. Again. While it wouldn’t surprise me if the two were for private owners, those 15 have to be for a major airline.
• Qatar Airways picked up 6 777-300ERs. It loves making noise at air shows.
• Saudi Arabian beefed up its A330 orderbook with four more.
• Almost lost in the shuffle, Air Astana out of Kazakhstan ordered 2 Embraer 190s with 2 options.

If you’re at Paris this week, enjoy all that drinking and schmoozing. If you’re here at home and you’re interested in this kind of stuff, I would recommend following Flightglobal. Those guys have put together some great coverage on what really is a pretty mundane subject for anyone outside the industry.

[Original photo via Flickr user slasher-fun/CC 2.0]

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So why are they doing it? Well, if you’re interested, listen to this 16 minute podcast from the IAGblog that has Addison Schonland interviewing Hawaiian President and CEO Mark Dunkerley. He basically says that the 767s either hit “retirement age” or come off lease between 2009 and 2014, so they need new planes.

Why not get new 767s? Well, they don’t really make them anymore. Instead Boeing is focusing on the 787. So why not get 787s? Well, they aren’t available until 2017. Neither are the A350s, right? Well, yeah but Airbus could offer the A330 in the interim. Why not pick up other 767s in the interim? This is where it becomes a guessing game.

Dunkerley says the market is tight and there just aren’t that many planes out there right now. At some point when the 787 comes out, the 767s will come available rapidly but Hawaiian didn’t want to take that chance that it would happen in time for their needs to be met. Interesting stuff. It sounded like they wanted the 787 but they just couldn’t make it work. So they went Airbus.

What does this mean for customers? Well, it means they’ll have more middle seats in each row since the A350 is 3-3-3 or 2-5-2 and the A330 is 2-4-2 instead of the 767′s 2-3-2. But the order also means that Hawaiian is betting on an expansion so there will be more places to go. As they said in the podcast, they’ll be looking to go from Hawai’i to the East Coast and to Asia. That being said, the West Coast will remain their main market.

Hopefully they aren’t being too aggressive here. I mean, they’ll have a lot of seats to fill with these new planes. The A350 will have 322 passengers compared to 305 on the A330 and no more than 264 on the 767s. That is a lot more seats than they have today, and I think they’ll have a tough time filling them all.

I know this is probably more interesting to the airline dorks than anyone else, but the podcast gives you a good opportunity hear their thought process. Interesting stuff – maybe I should try podcasting if I can find anyone who want to talk to me.