The Cranky Flier » 787

Cranky on the Web (January 11-15)

CF — Sat, 16 Jan 2010 15:21:41 +0000

US Airways Pilots Infighting Grows Worse by the Day – BNET
It appears the US East pilots are tired of fighting the west pilots. Now they’re turning on each other. Unreal.

Airline Capacity Cuts Slow in December, Some Carriers See Growth – BNET
December traffic numbers show some interesting trends.

United Pushes International Presence with Muddled Marketing Message in Denver Fight – BNET
United is heading back to its Independence Air playbook in its fight in Denver.

Boeing’s Loss of 787-3 Orders is Good News – BNET
When is a canceled order a good thing? When it allows Boeing to walk away from the 787-3.

Sean Menke Leaves Frontier Airlines, This Can’t Be Good – BNET
Sean Menke is leaving Frontier and Republic, and that doesn’t bode well for the airline.

The Boeing 787 Dreamliner Flies

CF — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 15:11:37 +0000

It’s Wednesday and I think we all need a break from the problems of this industry. Let’s forget about looming strikes, delayed deliveries, red ink, etc and simply focus on the wonders of flight. The 787 finally slipped the surly bonds of Earth yesterday, and it was a beautiful sight. Here’s a shot from Boeing.

Take a look at that wing flex. Pretty crazy, huh? The 787 doesn’t look nearly as mean as it did in its initial renderings, but it’s still a very nice-looking airplane. Those massive Rolls Royce engines do seem disproportional to the body though. (GE ones begin testing soon.) Then again, they need those bad boys to save gas and fly further.

Fortunately, it didn’t just take to the air, but it also came back down and landed safely. The flight lasted only about 3 hours; it was cut short due to weather. This is just the beginning of a long road ahead. First deliveries to launch customer ANA are still probably a year away.

If you didn’t see the live webcast from Boeing or the countless images from the media, take a look at this video of the flight from David at AirlineReporter.com.

If you really want to follow the details, you have to follow FlightBlogger. He has plenty of videos and info over there.

Congratulations to all those who have worked on this airplane around the globe. It must be an incredible feeling to see your work take flight.

Cranky on the Web (December 7 – 11)

CF — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 15:15:45 +0000

Enjoy foreign service on N. American flights – USA Today
I talk to USA Today’s Ben Mutzabaugh about some of the “fifth freedom” flights operating in the US, including my personal favorite – Air New Zealand from LAX to London.

Airlines Fill Seats with Ease in November, Southwest Leaps Ahead – BNET
Southwest boosted its loads by 13.3 points in November. Yeehaw, that’s a lot.

Airlines Charging More for That Sought-After Seat – The New York Times
I voice the somewhat unpopular sentiment that charging for better seats on the plane is a good thing.

United Airlines Fights Mesa Air Group Over Airplanes (Part I) – BNET
United is suing Mesa over the introduction of 10 regional jets into service. This is the story of how they got to this point.

United Splits Its Widebody Fleet Order Between Boeing and Airbus – BNET
Why did United split its fleet order? Blame the manufacturers.

United Airlines Sues Mesa Air Group Over Airplanes (Part II) – BNET
And now, part 2 of our saga. In short, it seems to me that United wants out and Mesa made a mistake.

Radio Interview on the Noon Business Hour – WBBM 780 Chicago
I spoke with WBBM on Boeing’s prospects after the United order. My segment begins at the 25 minute mark and goes for about 3 minutes.

Japan and the US Near Aviation Open Skies Agreement, American and Delta Salivate – BNET
The Japanese market is one of the most fascinating to watch right now. Here’s a breakdown of what’s happening.

United Shrinks Again, Orders 787 and A350 Aircraft

CF — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 15:42:35 +0000

That post title doesn’t make much sense, does it? United couldn’t be ordering new planes and shrinking at the same time, right? Actually, that’s exactly what’s happening. United is ordering new planes, but they’re smaller planes to replace existing aircraft. It’s nice to finally see United order an airplane again, even if it does mean fewer seats for customers.

United announced that it has ordered 25 787s and 25 A350s for its widebody replacement plan. It also holds another 50 “purchase rights” for each of the aircraft, probably just putting down roots for when they figure out their next move.

My understanding is that the order is for the 787-8 and the A350-900 versions of the aircraft. The 25 787s will replace the 21-strong international 767 fleet while the 25 A350s will replace the 24-plane 747 fleet. No replacement for the 777s has been announced, but I imagine that all or part of those 100 purchase rights can be executed for that purpose when the time comes.

The 787-8 is a natural replacement for the 767-300. In a typical three cabin layout, the 767-300 holds 218 people. The 787-8 will hold 210 people, so it’s a very close match. I’m using typical three cabin layouts for comparison purposes because United is always less dense. The 767-300, for example, has 183 seats in United’s configuration, so my guess is that the 787 will look similar. There is no real loss of capacity here, but there is a gain in range.

Take a look at this map from the Great Circle Mapper (which just published its 100 millionth map, congrats!) that shows how far a 7,500nm range would you get you from Washington/Dulles:

The dark outline is where the airplane can’t reach (and the splotchy dark areas are too far from the nearest airport using 180 minute ETOPS rules) assuming 7,500nm range which will hopefully be less than actual. Dulles-Tokyo? Sure. Dulles-Kuwait? Oh yeah. And West Coast-Asia as well. Perfect. These can handle a lot of the routes that require 777s for range purposes today but don’t have the demand to support them. This airplane is a natural fit for United

The A350 order, however, is not an exact replacement for the 747. The 747-400 seats 416 in a typical three cabin configuration (347 in United’s), but the A350-900 will seat 100 fewer people in a typical configuration with just a few hundred more miles in range. So this will be a big cut in capacity on those planes, and that’s probably a good thing from United’s perspective.

In United’s international fleet, the 747 is the ugly duckling. It has a lot more coach seats and an inferior coach product when compared to the 767 and 777. This is United effectively saying that it doesn’t want that many coach seats, so it’s hacking away in the back of the bus. When these start coming in, you can expect fewer cheap fares from United.

But why bother splitting the fleet? A very good question indeed, and one that I’m talking about over on BNET today. So when will you get to ride in one of these bad boys? Not for a long time.

Deliveries are scheduled between 2016 and 2019, but United has the right to defer built into their contracts. So it could be even later than that if they so choose. Of course, let’s just wait to see one of these planes even get in the air on a test flight. For the 787, that should be here in the next couple of weeks. Then it’s only a 6+ year wait before you see one in United colors.

[Updated 12/9 @ 1103a to show that the map was for flights from Dulles]

In the Loop Radio Guest and This Week on BNET (July 6 – 10)

CF — Sat, 11 Jul 2009 14:28:13 +0000

I’m hijacking my usual “This Week on BNET” post with a brief plug. Minnesota Public Radio puts out a weekly podcast called In the Loop, and I was one of the guests for this week’s production. I usually do interviews on the phone, but this time I went downtown to record in a radio booth where they record NPR’s Marketplace. That means you get to hear my voice in all its crystal-clear glory.

We talked about the latest fun with Ryanair, Wizz Air’s busted promotion, and of course, United breaking guitars. Take a listen for yourself. My piece starts at 18:30 if you want to skip ahead, but it’s a fun show that’s worth listening to the whole way through.

If you can’t see this, click to download

Why is Delta Getting More MD-90s?
Delta is acquiring more MD-90s, and I can’t quite figure out why they’re doing it.

Spirit is Not Buying Air Jamaica
It’s rumored that Spirit is buying Air Jamaica, but that’s not true. There could be some unique opportunities ahead, however.

US Airways Sees Further Unit Revenue Erosion in June
June numbers are starting to trickle in, and US Airways appears to have had a rough June.

Official: Boeing Buys Vought’s 787 Operation
Last week it was a rumor, and this week it’s official. Boeing is bringing some 787 work in-house.

United Feels the Pain When Complaints Go Viral
United broke Dave Carroll’s guitar and they wouldn’t pay for it. Now he’s written a song and it’s gone viral. United can’t be happy.

June 2009 Monthly Traffic Numbers
June was a mixed bag for the airlines with some improving loads and others falling back. One constant theme, however, was lower capacity.

Virgin America Gets New Funding
Meet Virgin America’s new investors, same as the old investors? What’s going on here?

This Week on BNET (June 29 – July 3)

CF — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 14:19:33 +0000

Recession Means More People Travel Locally, Take Shorter Trips
It’s not a surprise, but people are changing their travel habits in this economy. The numbers are sobering to see.

US-EU Open Skies Phase II Talks Begin
All eyes are on round two of the talks – this, the EU hopes, will result in cabotage rights within the US.

United, Continental Antitrust Application Slammed by DOJ
The DOT was in favor of the broad antitrust immunity application, but the DOJ isn’t so happy.

Frontier Makes Money in May, What’s Next?
Frontier is making money, and that’s great, but it’s what happens next that really determines how this airline will be doing going forward. Lots of changes could be underway.

Boeing Set to Buy Vought?
Boeing seems to be having seconds thoughts about outsourcing most of the 787 part production, and it now appears to be bringing one of its suppliers back in-house.

This Week on BNET (June 22 – 26)

CF — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 14:57:37 +0000

US Airways’ Charlotte to Honolulu Flight Might Just Work
At first glance, the new US Airways flight from Charlotte to Honolulu seems pretty awful, but it may actually end up being smart.

Alaska Fills the Void in the Austin to San Jose Market
American pulls out and a couple days later, Alaska moves in. This might be smart.

Continental’s Biofuel Test Results are Good
Continental’s biofuel test results mirror those of Air New Zealand. They’re good.

Frontier to Become Subsidiary of Republic
Frontier announced yesterday that it plans to come out of bankruptcy as a full subsidiary of Republic.

What is Republic’s Strategy?
Now that Republic has stepped out in a big way with its Frontier purchase, what exactly is its strategy?

787 First Flight Delayed . . . Again
Did you hear that scream from airline exec offices around the world? The 787 is delayed once again.

United Pilots Prepare for Scope Battle
Pilot negotiations at United are heating up and Scope is about to take center stage.

Malev Orders Sukhoi Superjets
The Superjet got a big order, but is this the start of something big?

This Week on BNET (March 9 – 13)

CF — Sat, 14 Mar 2009 14:37:10 +0000

News and Notes From United’s 10-K
United’s 10-K gave us some interesting bits on its Mileage Plus redemptions, bmi partnership, and its credit card processing agreements.

Visiting Lumexis, a New Competitor in the Inflight Entertainment World
Lumexis put its first inflight entertainment test system on an airplane this week, and I visited the company recently to learn more about the system.

Delta Reaffirms 787 Order
Rumors swirled that Delta had canceled its 787 order, but that’s apparently not true.

AirTran Continues to Diversify Beyond Atlanta
In a presentation this week, AirTran detailed how much it has really diversified beyond its Atlanta hub. It’s interesting to note how much the airline has changed.

Virgin America Shareholders Cash Out, Airline Reports Negative 25 Percent Fourth Quarter Margin
Virgin America is full of bad news this week as it posted another steep loss as its major US shareholders pulled out.

Delta Cuts International Flying on Weaker Demand
Delta is making cuts to international capacity, and that’s good news for the industry. But is it quick enough?

Alaska Sees Rising Costs on Capacity Cuts
All this capacity cutting may be good for the industry, but it has an unpleasant side effect . . . rising unit costs. Alaska has shown us some numbers.

Airlines May Suffer From Increasing Danger in Mexico
Violence along the border has been increasing, but it’s bound to affect resort towns as well. Which airlines stand to hurt the most as demand drops?

Best and Worst Airport On-Time Percentages in January
Only one surprise in this list, and it’s not a “good” surprise at all.

This Week on BNET (Nov 3 – 7)

CF — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 15:06:33 +0000

Delta Announces New Team of Officers
Now that the Delta/Northwest merger is done, the airline has decided to roll out its new management team, taking pieces from both sides of the aisle.

Airlines with Pensions Face Funding Shortfall
With stock prices down, pensions all over will be underfunded. Those airlines that kept their pensions will unfortunately be facing this problem alone.

Third Quarter 2008 Airline Yields
A list of third quarter yields by airline

Delta Decision to Add First Bag Fee Isn’t Surprising
Delta and Northwest announced a standardized set of fees yesterday, and a first bag fee is on the list. Why now, and is it the right move?

787 Won’t Fly in 2008
Now we know why Boeing didn’t taunt Airbus when the A380 saw delays. It seems that the 787 has been delayed again and won’t fly until 2009.

American Orders Up to 100 787s

CF — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 14:54:55 +0000

American may have announced a $360 million loss excluding special items yesterday, but that news was overshadowed by the airline’s decision to order up to 100 787 Dreamliners. They join Delta/Northwest and Continental as having 787s on order while United . . . still does not.

So the story is that American has ordered 42 787-9s and kept the rights for 58 more of them. They have not ordered any of the smaller 787-8 aircraft, though I would assume that they could swap for them if they really wanted to at a later date.

The 787-9 will hold 250 to 290 passengers. That’s a decent increase over the 225 seats you’ll find on one of their 58 767-300s today, but it will slot in between those and the 47 777s they’re also flying. My guess is that if they do use this aircraft to replace airplanes instead of grow (as they’ve indicated), they’ll start with some of their older 767-300s (the first of which turn 20 this year).

But, by 2012 when the first plane arrives, they may very well use this plane to focus on expansion. By then there will hopefully be a stronger economy and an increase in global traffic. I would assume that they’ll keep the flexibility to make that decision later on if they can.

Wait, did I say 2012? Pretty interesting that though Boeing was thought to have its 787 line booked solid for years, they still found room for American to start taking deliveries in just four short years. You’ve always gotta take care of your best customers, right? According to the Airline Biz blog, American had actually negotiated in a previous contract that they get early dibs on aircraft if they want them.

Now, American just has to come to terms with its pilots on how much to pay them to fly the plane. If they can’t, they actually built in the right to cancel the order. Nothing like building in some leverage into your negotiations.

And yes, the question I’m sure every airline dork cares about (and nobody else does) . . . will the planes be able to keep the metallic finish that American is known for or will they have to paint the composite planes gray like they originally did with the A300? Well, this artist’s impressions makes it look gray:

But I think it’s safe to say that this is probably the last thing on their minds. We’ll figure it out down the road.