Unfortunately, we don’t know a ton of details about American’s plans just yet. We do know that American will buy 100 more current generation 737s, 100 737s with new, more efficient engines, 130 current generation A320 series airplanes, and 130 A320neo (new engine option) series airplanes. That comes to a total of 460. How will this massive buy fit into the airline’s fleet? That remains to be seen since American hasn’t said which versions of each series it will take. But we do know something.

When this order is fully filled, the MD-80, 757, and 767-200 will have disappeared from American’s fleet. The MD-80 retirement is no surprise. American has slowly been replacing those with 737-800s, and this will be the nail in the coffin for the older technology, less fuel efficient “Mad Dog” aircraft. I know a lot of people hate MD-80s, but I do have a special place for them. Soon enough, there won’t be any Douglas airplanes flying. Sad.

But time marches on, and it was a given that this would happen. Today, American has 214 MD-80s left in the fleet with 154 737-800s. There were previously 54 737-800s on order, so really, there were just 160 MD-80s that still needed to be replaced. That will undoubtedly happen with the 737 and A320 current generation airplanes on order in some form.

Then there’s the 757. It’s a great airplane that uniquely can fly passengers across the Pond to Europe, over to Hawai’i and into a variety of hot and high locations with ease. No other airplane has been able to duplicate this with so few seats, and even though it’s out of production, the airplane is still a strong performer. American has decided that it can replace it, but I don’t think that will be with one airplane. The 737 can do Hawai’i, the A321neo and next gen 737s should be able to get to Europe. It probably won’t be a one size fits all solution, but with these new-engined airplanes, there is finally a way to replace the 757.

The 767-200 is a niche airplane that primarily flies the JFK to LA and SF routes. That will be easy to replace, and probably should be toast sooner rather than later.

That’s pretty much what we know. The problem, as mentioned, is that we don’t know which airplanes in the series American will actually take. It notes that it has flexibility and can opt for any family member in each series, specifically the 737-700, 737-800, 737-900ER and the A319, A320, and A321 are mentioned. So what will the counts look like of each? We don’t know, and American probably doesn’t know either. The airline does like to talk about what amazing flexibility it has in this deal. It can make changes as it sees fit over time. One thing is clear; this will add a lot of airplanes to the fleet, and it reintroduces Airbus into the Boeing-loyal airline.

I’m still surprised that American bothered ordering from both Boeing and Airbus. It seems to me that Airbus had this thing sewn up thanks to Boeing’s refusal to move on an heir apparent to the 737 while Airbus had the A320neo. When Boeing finally budged (note that the new engine 737 isn’t approved yet by Boeing’s board but is part of the order), it was able to squeeze back in to the race. But why not pick one over the other? It would seem that with a re-engined option, one manufacturer could fill the need. But I think it’s all about money.

As part of this deal, there’s no doubt that American went back and forth to both manufacturers and played them off each other. They got the absolute best deals they could and then, they took them both. That’s a great move. There will be enough airplanes in each fleet to really not make much of a difference whether there’s one type or two. And this way, American can walk away with big money. In fact, the first 230 deliveries are already covered by financing from the two manufacturers. It’s like American is the kid who went up to its parents and asked for money . . . and dad handed over his whole wallet.

But with all these massive orders, American is still going to have a lot more airplanes than it has today. Let’s assume that American retires all its 757s, 767-200s, and MD-80s. That’s 299 airplanes out of the fleet but 460 coming in. Huh? That’s huge growth, and it doesn’t even count the options. I can’t imagine a need for that much growth, so how will this play out?

Some of it could be counting on the new-engined aircraft replacing some of the current generation 737s and A320s that come in, but there could be more to it. And that could lie with American Eagle.

American also announced that it will go ahead in spinning off American Eagle into a separate company. As part of that, the Eagle pilots got a guaranteed path into American with 35 percent of new hire pilots at American required to come from Eagle. American likes to say that it’s spinning off Eagle so that it can fly on its own and can start working for other airlines as well. Yeah, right. Eagle is expensive compared to other providers, and its chances aren’t great for getting new flying. The reality is that American really just wants to start looking for other airlines to do some of its express flying for less. So it spins Eagle off and slowly shrinks it into oblivion.

But remember, today American flies nothing smaller than the 140 seat MD-80. What if it chooses to get A319 and 737-700 airplanes as part of this order? You figure those would fly in around a 120 to 124 seat configuration. With that smaller airplane, could American start bringing mainline flights back to places that are served with 70 seaters today?

It might be a stretch, especially since my assumption is that the pilots aren’t going to work for less to win that flying back. But there are a lot of routes out there that are on 70 seaters today, like Chicago to Atlanta, that might work better with a larger airplane. American hasn’t had that type of capacity for years, so we have no idea how the airline would use it. But it could be a way of reducing dependence on Eagle, if labor is willing to take on the challenge.

In the end, we really don’t know what American’s strategy is. I doubt American even fully knows what it’s going to do with all these airplanes. But it is encouraging to see the airline make these moves. American is finally, actually, going to try to do something about its cost problem instead of continuing to whine about how others will eventually catch up. With sweetheart financing from the manufacturers and much more fuel efficient aircraft, this should help the airline keep costs down. If only we had more details to know for sure . . .

[Original Aircraft Photo via Flickr user JF10/CC 2.0]

What Happened
Last week, a Southwest 737-300 airplane was flying from Phoenix to Sacramento when a hole opened up in the roof. The airplane lost pressurization (of course) but the pilots were able to land the airplane in Yuma and everyone was fine. You may have heard people talk about how the airplane plunged after the hole appeared, but that was on purpose.

When an airplane loses pressurization at altitude, you can’t breathe. And that’s a problem. There are oxygen masks but those don’t have an endless supply of oxygen in them. So anytime this happens, the pilots are trained to go into a steep descent until they get to around the 10,000 foot mark where the air is breathable. It may seem like you’re plunging, but it’s all part of the plan.

Once on the ground, it was easy to see that this was no small hole. It happened in the crown of the airplane along a lap joint. That’s a horizontal line where two pieces of the skin come together and are fastened to each other. As you can imagine, this area is cause for concern regarding fatigue because joints are the weakest points in a structure.

Tear Straps
The part that’s really concerning here isn’t the tear itself so much as it is the size of the tear. See, on all these airplanes, they install what are called tear straps. The aircraft of particular concern are the 737-300, -400, and -500s, collectively called 737 Classics. Next Generation (or “NG”) airplanes make up the bulk of the 737s you’re likely to fly, including all of the ones that American and Delta operate. Those had a different design and are newer so they aren’t impacted by this. I’m sure, however, that the FAA and Boeing will be watching this closely.

But back to the Classic airplanes. On the older models, these tear straps were placed every 10 inches horizontally along that lap joint. In 1993, a change was made that resulted in the straps being needed only every 20 inches. These tear straps are meant to stop any crack from spreading further. In other words, even if a hole opened up, it should never go further than 10 or 20 inches depending upon the airplane because the tear strap will stop it.

As you may have seen, this went for feet, not inches, and that means that the tear straps were breached. That is not good. So, Boeing, the FAA, and the airlines are diving in to try to figure out what exactly happened here. But for now, they are simply mandating inspections for cracks so that this never even becomes an issue. Why weren’t these being inspected before? That’s a different story.

Shouldn’t These Have Been Inspected?
For the older 737 Classic models that were built before 1993, there were directives issued that required inspections (using technology, not visual) for aircraft with more than 45,000 cycles. That was eventually lowered to only 35,000 cycles. One cycle is one takeoff and landing. This metric is used because that’s a good measure of how much stress is put on the airframe going through the pressurization process.

At US Airways media day yesterday, that airline confirmed that all of its 737s fall into this category, and they’ve been doing the inspections since the FAA mandated them early last decade. More than half of Southwest’s 737-300s fall into this category, so presumably the airline has been conducting these checks as required. But it didn’t use this as a standard 737-300 maintenance procedure for the full fleet. On those airplanes built after the 1993 manufacturing change, none of these non-visual inspections were done, because they didn’t have to be done.

With hindsight, that’s too bad, because had Southwest inspected all of its 737-300s, it would have found the cracks. The airplane that opened up a hole had more than 39,000 cycles. But the newer manufacturing process wasn’t expected to have problems this early on in the life of the airplane. In fact, Boeing thought that 60,000 cycles would have been a good conservative number for an inspection. Now, the FAA has mandated checks on these newer airplanes starting at 30,000 cycles.

So as you can see, there’s a lot up in the air. Nobody knows why cracks are showing up on these airplanes so early in life, but stepped up inspections will make sure that they are safe to fly regardless. Now the investigation can focus on why this is happening.

I like the 737 just fine, but for years it has been the stepchild of the United fleet. While other aircraft received newer, upgraded interiors, the 737s just soldiered on in a time warp. Frequent fliers hated them and their mere 8 first class seats, but they did their job, day in and day out.

So I figured, why not take the flight and remember why it’s a good thing they’re leaving the fleet? It only added to the fun when I ended up with 16B, in the middle. I thought about moving to the pain-inducing last row, but nah, this was enough.

I knew a couple people taking the flight, so three of us met up early for some In ‘n Out. It was a beautiful day in LA but it was pretty gusty and chilly. We headed over to catch our flight, but one of the guys in our group was on another airline in a different terminal. He had some time to kill, so he decided to try and get through security to join us at the gate. He flashed his boarding pass for that other airline and they let him right through without even hesitating. Nice work, TSA. Probably could have flashed a bus pass.

The gate area was full of really happy people, most of them airline dorks or employees. They had a small spread set up with drinks and cookies, and they had roped off the gate area so people could spread out. This flight was not only the last 737 flight in United colors, but it was also the retirement flight for the captain. There was a lot of celebrating to do.

This particular 737 looked resplendent in the new United colors (at least on the outside). It spent the day flying across the country touching all United hubs. It started in Washington and went to Chicago, Denver, and then LA. It’s only fitting that the airplane ended on one of the old United Shuttle routes. LAX to SFO.

We all boarded the airplane and everyone had a flight certificate at our seats in the old, old interiors. There were cameras flashing everywhere, and I have to imagine that some of the people who didn’t know they were getting on this flight were just taken aback.

The first officer was on the radio and Channel 9 (which lets you listen to cockpit communications) was on. We taxied out and took off into the chop. Once above it, the flight attendants were allowed to get up and serve. One of the agents started on the 737 thirty nine years ago and she was excellent throughout the flight.

I listened to Channel 9 and heard pilots and controllers alike ask whether this was the last flight. When not talking to ATC, the first officer was telling us not to worry when we saw a bunch of fire trucks waiting for us. The captain was having a water cannon salute for his retirement.

Halfway through the flight, the awards started. They asked everyone who was a Flyertalk member to ring their call buttons. I couldn’t count the number that went off. They handed out signed copies of the flight plan to all those who rang their call buttons. They also recognized a guy who has flown 1.3 million miles this year lifetime and another who has 31 flights between LA and SF this year.

We started our descent and as our first officer checked in with Norcal Approach, there was a great exchange. (Trying to remember this as best I can.)

FO: Norcal Approach, United 737 level at 200
ATC: United 737, expect holding for 45 minutes at [SKUNK?]
FO: *pause* Ohhh-K
ATC: Just kidding, thought you’d want to hear that one more time. There are no delays
FO: I wish the captain had the mike so you could hear what he just said

Did I mention I love Channel 9?

We landed and everyone cheered. Then we went taxied in and the captain received his water cannon salute (see video below). I was struck by the sheer number of United employees lining the ramp as we pulled forward. There were baggage handlers in their carts, customer service reps, flight crews, and more. It was really a nice showing. The seatbelt sign went off, and after one last cheer, it was time to get off.

There was only one problem. Nobody really wanted to get off (except me apparently) because it took forever. People just started writing on tray tables and taking whatever they could find. Apparently, they were taking anything that wasn’t an actual part of the airplane. I mean, they were taking exit signs and even flight attendant call buttons. United spokesperson Robin Urbanski seemed concerned about this since it’s a leased airplane. (Oops.)

Once in the gate area, there were a lot of people waiting for the captain to deplane. Finally, he got off, gave a nice short speech and there was cake for anyone who wanted it. It was just a really nice, heartfelt outpouring.

I skipped the cake because they specifically positioned a new A320 conversion from Ted next door. Not having been on one yet, I was curious. The interior is light years ahead of the 737, as you can see as left and the new leather smell still wafted through the plane. It was a really nice contrast, but we had to get off quickly unless we wanted to go to Denver. I didn’t.

One of my friends happened to be landing just before we did, so we went and had a beer before I realized my flight was leaving in 15 minutes. I walked right on and then found myself stopped in the jet bridge.

This airplane was boarding painfully slowly. I finally found my window seat in row 29 and was happy to find an empty middle.

Thanks to some diligent flight attendants, we pushed back a little early despite the pokey passengers boarding for our very short 51 minute flight. Those north winds that slowed us down coming up gave us a nice boost going back.

There was a little bit of chop most of the way down, but it wasn’t a big deal at all. The flight attendants were in a good mood and walked up and down the aisle quickly to try to serve drinks. We had beautiful views, and really the only thing that wasn’t perfect was that Channel 9 was off. I really can’t fault the captain for that one. He tried to pipe in the World Series over Channel 9. Unfortunately it ended up sounding like the teacher from the Peanuts cartoons, but it was a nice effort.

Overall it was a great trip on United. Like I said, it’s nice to have trips like these to help you remember that there are some really good people working at United. And now they won’t have to deal with the 737 any more. Sort of.

While it may be gone from service, it is still haunting me. Take a look at the seat cushion on my 757 flight home.

[See all my United 737 Retirement Flight photos on Flickr]
[See all my United 737 Retirement Flight videos on YouTube]

JetBlue and Others See Higher Complaints in March
I said above that “most” other airlines didn’t have rising complaints. JetBlue, ExpressJet, and Hawaiian, however, did.

Premium Traffic Down 19 Percent, Revenues Down 35 Percent or More
I’m not sure why I keep looking at these IATA premium traffic monitors. The news just keeps getting worse.

American Adds One Way Awards, Cuts Stopovers
American is making their program more flexible for travelers, and I think this is a net positive for both sides.

Continental Starts Flying 737s to Hawai’i
Continental’s first move to fly 737s to Hawai’i highlights the shrinking but still important role of 757s.

AirTran’s Costs Help in the Battle for Milwaukee
At AirTran’s annual meeting, there was one slide that caught my eye. It was a cost comparison, and AirTran looks pretty darn good.

Alaska’s Shows Dropping Demand From H1N1
Alaska’s latest investor update shows some material drops from the flu scare. No surprise, of course.

This thread questions who is ultimately at fault, and I’d have to go with the pilot on this one. I mean, the truck may not have been parked in the right place, but it was NOT MOVING. Then again, an Enterprise shuttle van hit my stopped car at the airport earlier this year and they’re saying it’s not their fault, so who knows. (Note to everyone: Don’t rent from Enterprise)

Most interesting to me is this Lusaka Times article that says it was ship ZS-SJD. If they’re right, and they may not be considering they misidentified the 737-800 as a 737-700, then this is the exact plane I flew out of Lusaka back to Johannesburg back in December 2003. Neat.

To your left is what the first 737-700ER will look like in the colors of ANA. They’re going to start flying it on March 25 from Nagoya to Guangzhou (China).

What’s so unique about it? Well on a plane that Southwest fills with 137 seats, they will have only 48. There will 24 business class seats and 24 economy class seats. Even the economy seats will be good though with more than 6″ more legroom than normal (38″).

And while we’re on the subject, let’s talk about the 737-700ER a little more. This plane is going to be a rockstar. According to Boeing it will fly up to 5,510 nm. As you can see on the map below from the beloved Great Circle Mapper, that gets you really far.

This map shows the range from LAX. You could fly to London, Tokyo, or Sao Paulo without problem. Of course, this means you’d have to buy all the auxiliary fuel tanks so it’ll cost a little more, but that kind of range could open up new thin routes that aren’t currently flown today.

LAX to Madrid, anyone?