It’s been well over 24 hours since we first heard that an Air France A330 disappeared over the ocean on its way from Rio de Janeiro to Paris. In that time, I’ve seen a million different theories about what happened, and that always makes me angry. We have no idea what happened here, and really, we’ll be lucky if we ever find out. Here’s what we do know about the accident.

• Air France #447, operated by a 4-year-old A330, left Rio at 703p bound for Paris
• The airplane was off the coast of Brazil, beyond radar coverage when it hit some rough weather
• Something bad happened and a bunch of technical faults were automatically sent to Air France, but the pilots never sent a distress message
• The plane never arrived in Paris

Really, that’s all we know. And remember, while there were storms in the area alongside reports of strong turbulence, we have nothing to indicate that turbulence caused the accident. Also, those automated technical fault messages that were received by Air France stating that there had been an electrical problem and pressurization was lost (among other things)? Even if that did happen (false reports are always possible), we still have no clue why any of that happened, and there could be a million explanations.

There were no distress calls from the pilots, and I can only think of three reasons that might happen. Either the radios failed (highly unlikely), the pilots did this on purpose (even more unlikely), or it happened so fast that there wasn’t even time for a radio call (most likely). It makes me sick just thinking about what it was like on that plane toward the end.

I think it’s safe to say that this isn’t going to end up like the TV show “Lost.” This airplane is likely in a million pieces scattered on and in the Atlantic Ocean. At some point, search teams will find a debris field, and they might be able to put together some fact-based theories. But the true jewel here will be the cockpit voice recorder and flight data recorder; the so-called black boxes. Those might be at the bottom of the ocean, but hopefully they’ll be recovered with good data still retrievable. Without those, it’s going to be incredibly hard to figure out what really happened.

Right now, the list of suspects is long, and it’s certainly baffling. Airplanes just don’t fall out of the sky, not even during severe turbulence. There were other airplanes flying through the area that made it safely, and I’m sure those pilots will be interviewed. For example, Iberia 6024 left Rio for Madrid 20 minutes after the Air France flight. Lufthansa 507 left Sao Paulo for Frankfurt about half an hour before the Air France flight, so they might have been fairly close to each other. Air France itself had another A330 leave Sao Paulo for Paris only 27 minutes later. And these are just some of the aircraft in the neighborhood.

Hopefully we will learn more about what happened here, because none of the theories that keep being flung out there by the media seem to make sense on their own. As always, this will end up being a series of different problems that come together to form a true catastrophe.

ExpressJet To Fly 10 Planes for United This Summer
Looks like ExpressJet is flying for United this summer, and it seems like a win-win for everyone considering the circumstances.

Delta Pulls Out of Boston - Baltimore Route
That didn’t take long. Delta is pulling out of the Boston-Baltimore route, but can the remaining three make a living on their own? I doubt it.

Hearings on the Buffalo Q400 Crash Begin Today
The hearings on the downed Q400 begin today, and fingers look to be heading toward Colgan’s training and the pilot onboard.

Virgin America Shows Worse Q4 Numbers Excluding Lower Fuel Prices
Low fuel prices made Q4 look better for Virgin America, but don’t let that fool you. This wasn’t a great quarter.

Virgin America Posts Low January Load Factors
Part 2 of my Virgin America review looks at the low load factors that plagued the airline in January.

Digging in to Virgin America’s Q4 Operational Stats
This is the last post on this for awhile, I promise. But I decided to dig in to operational stats and the results told some interesting tales.

Former America West Pilots Win in Court Ruling Over Legacy US Airways Pilots
We may be one step closer to seeing the US Airways/America West seniority problem solved, but not quite. The old US Airways pilots are going to appeal. *sigh*

Spirit Wants People To Know Who They Are
You know who Spirit is? If so, you might not like them. They’re trying to change that, but not by improving customer service. Just by talking.

A very strange thing happens when a commercial airplane crashes. All of a sudden every person related to this industry feels the need to write about it following the standard script.

1) Report that there was an accident
2) Offer “thoughts and prayers”
3) Link to one news story with details and air traffic control tapes if available

If you search around your favorite industry blogs and other news sources today, that’s what you’ll find. A quick Google search of “3407 thoughts prayers” comes back with more than 6,000 results so far. I’m pretty sure that there’s no other reason for that number (the flight number of the downed airplane) to be linked with “thoughts and prayers,” so this is all about the accident. (And yes, I realize that my blog will show up in that search now as well.)

So what’s my point? I’m not writing about it. I have absolutely nothing to add. Like most of you, I sat there glued to CNN with a sinking feeling in my stomach last night. Is there anything I can add? No. You all know that I don’t like to speculate on the cause of accidents, so I know pretty much what everyone else knows right now.

As soon as I think I can add some value to the conversation, I’ll do it. Until then, I’ll focus on other subjects where I hope I can add perspective. So if you don’t see me immediately comment on accidents in the future, it’s not because I don’t think it’s important, and it’s not because I don’t care. It’s simply because I don’t know how to add any value.

We all remember the BA 777 that lost power and crash-landed at London/Heathrow, right? Last September, an interim report was put out on the accident saying that ice buildup blocking the fuel flow was the likely culprit. Now Boeing is not only agreeing with that conclusion, but it is saying that it caused another 777 incident on a Delta aircraft. According to Boeing, the problem is only occurring with Rolls-Royce powered aircraft.

I’ll try not to get too deep into the weeds here, but there’s a place in the engine where fuel passes in tubes right next to engine oil. The hot oil warms the cold fuel and the fuel cools the oil so everything is in good shape. Apparently, the Rolls-Royce engines are not always able to adequately heat the fuel if it’s too cold, so ice has formed and blocked the fuel flow temporarily. In the BA accident, it was so close to the ground that there was no hope of recovery. In the Delta incident, the plane was cruising, so they were able to restart it without any serious issues.

It’s odd to see this report come out before the investigations are finished, but Boeing must have seen something that it really thinks needs to be fixed. The chance that this could cause another accident is slim, especially now that they’ve recommended some operational changes (like, fly lower where it’s warmer if necessary) that will help avoid the problem. But if you’re nervous about flying with a Rolls-Royce engine on the 777, let me try to put your mind at ease. Here is the breakdown of which airlines do not fly Rolls-Royce powered 777s. (This isn’t a comprehensive list, but it should cover the biggest operators.)

Non Rolls-Royce Powered 777s

• Air Canada
• Air France
• ANA
• Continental
• JAL
• United

Air New Zealand (777-200s), American, British Airways (some), Cathay Pacific, Delta (all but the Long Range aircraft), and Singapore are just a few examples of airlines that fly Rolls-Royce engines on their 777 fleet. I wouldn’t hesitate to fly on any of these planes right now, but I thought it couldn’t hurt to give a little peace of mind for those who feel a little nervous.

TripAdvisor put out the results of a study yesterday regarding airplane safety. I’m sure it was spurred by the US Airways accident last week, and I have to say that the results seem absolutely, completely wrong. It may not be their fault - some people may want to say they’re safety-conscious after seeing an accident like we saw last week, but they must be lying.

Here are some of the findings:

30% say they always pay attention to the safety briefing and another 38% often do
Are you kidding me? There’s no way. Most people are reading magazines, squeezing in a last phone call, yelling at their children, or sleeping. I actually do pay attention every time (’cause I’m anal like that), and I rarely see anyone else watching unless the flight attendant happens to be hot.

Of those who don’t pay attention, 81% say it’s because they already know it
This is bull . . . oh wait, I believe this. I think most people who fly frequently do feel they know it by heart, so they don’t bother to pay attention. But even if you know it, this is a great opportunity to review. Different types of planes have different types of doors, so you should brush up on knowing which type you’ll need to use to run screaming from the plane. Also, it reminds you to check where your oxygen mask comes from, and it shows you how to put a seatbelt on. Tough one, I know.

50% have read the safety card
Um, ok. I’ll believe that 50% have read it at some point. But those cards are just so boring and hard to read that I think most people gloss over it. If only others took the approach that Sun Country takes. Something tells me that Ryanair has more luck since they post the card on the seatback in front of you so you can’t avoid it.

73% say they always check the location of exits and another 20% often check
Seriously? I believe that people may make a mental note of where they came in, but I bet most people forget to look if the nearest exit is behind them (as the safety briefing would remind you). Also, I bet very few people are as detailed as I am and actually count the number of rows forward and backward to the nearest exit. If you go down, there may not be any lights or even worse, there may be a bunch of smoke. That prevents you from seeing anything, so if you count, you can easily find your way.

75% say they would know what to do in a water landing
Ok, I believe that most people think they know what to do, but I bet most people wouldn’t do it right. I bet most people would pop the first exit they saw even if it’s submerged under water. Not such a good plan.

91% always keep their seatbelt fastened
Again, really? I can’t tell you how often I see people with their belts off. I’m a freak about this one too, because if you’ve got your belt on, turbulence won’t be able to smash your face into the ceiling. If it’s off, well, all bets are off.

So I guess I’m not blaming TripAdvisor here for trying, but people lie a lot. Just because they say something doesn’t mean it’s true, and on most of these results, I’d bet that’s exactly the case. I will bet that after the US Airways accident, there will be a temporary increase in the number of people who pay attention, but as usual, that will fade away.