Topic of the Week: Will Virgin Atlantic Actually Fly Short Haul?

VS are the absolute masters of posturing, whining and moaning. I wouldn’t be surprised if they dug out the old Dirty Tricks references in this little BA spat. Move on Dickie the rest of the world has! They should focus their efforts on joining an alliance as they said they were looking to do earlier this year, again to much fanfare and zero delivery. VS was the first airline I flew over a big ocean with… loved them, they were great. That was 1994. Sadly they seem to have stuck in that era and failed to move on with the rest of the world.

As others have noted, the Virgin Group are masters of PR and position. Will they really fly the domestic route? We’ll know when schedules and fares are posted and when the first one is in the air. And, in the words o f another, “…frankly madam, I don’t give a damn…”

When bmi was independent, Virgin obtained a lot of its long haul feed at Heathrow from bmi. While the conditions of BA buying bmi provided that competitor airlines should have access to this domestic feed, Virgin will not be happy about their long haul feed coming from their big rival.

Separately, you’re missing the bigger picture on this with regards to domestic flights. There are 7 slot pairs at Heathrow tied to the Edinburgh and Aberdeen routes, which BA must divest *without payment* if a competitor who does not currently lease slots to any other airline applies for the slots and fly these routes for 3 years. After 3 years, the slots are grandfathered, and Virgin can use them on other routes. Thus, if Virgin flies domestic to Aberdeen and Edinburgh for 3 years, they get 7 pairs of slots for absolutely zero charge.

Thus, to be in with a chance of 7 free slots, it is essential that Virgin take back their 3 slot pairs from Cyprus Airlines, and find some way of keeping the slots warm. The shortest sensible route is concidentally Heathrow-Manchester.

Now, when is the deadline for applying for those 7 free slots ? Oh, by coincidence it happened to be earlier this week.

What does Virgin plan to operate from Heathrow-Manchester ? Oddly enough, it’s going to be a wet lease, meaning that for 3 years, Virgin has almost no capital risk / need to invest in new aircraft or pilot training.

If Virgin get those 7 free slots at Heathrow, expect them to make a good try at domestic flying. If those 7 free slots go to someone else, expect Virgin to Manchester to stop before the end of 2013 if they lose too much cash. If Aberdeen+ Edinburgh lose too much cash, expect the routes to stop around March 2016.

The 7 free slots at Heathrow, an airport which runs at 99% capacity every day, are the story behind this. The statement about wanting to provide competition is just a bit of public posturing.