Browsing Posts published in September, 2009

Yesterday, American announced a massive change to its route strategy that will result in the death of the St Louis hub. At the same time, the rest of the hubs will be strengthened. I feel like the sleeping giant finally woke up from a long nap. So far, I like what I see.

Apparently, American has decided that it has four hubs these days. I knew about Miami, Dallas/Ft Worth, and Chicago/O’Hare, but now they are also calling New York/JFK a hub. As they say, “These four cities, along with Los Angeles, serve as the cornerstones of the Company’s network.” So that is where things will be strengthened. Meanwhile, St Louis gets gutted. Let’s start with the biggest news and then move on from there.

St Louis – Death of the Hub – The old TWA hub in St Louis will finally receive a stake in the heart. After this culling, there will be only 36 flights a day to nine cities. Talk about an empty airport. Instead of listing the massive number of cities losing service, I’ll just explain which ones keep it. There will be flights from St Louis to the five focus cities (four hubs plus LAX) as well as Boston, New York/LaGuardia, Seattle, and Washington/National. That’s it. If you’ve ever wanted to see a ghost airport that’s technically still in use, this is it.

St Louis Mayor Francis Slay thinks American is making a big mistake. Will any other airlines agree with him? We’ve seen Southwest recently add flights to Boston and Midwest just picked up the St Louis – Milwaukee run. I doubt we’ll ever see St Louis as a hub again, but this could open up some opportunities for limited additional flying for other airlines.

American Pulls Down St Louis, Fights United in Chicago

Chicago/O’Hare – Watch Out, United – O’Hare is the only other airport seeing significant changes, and these all appear to be aimed at United. The airline will add 57 new flights here, and I have to assume that these will be accommodated by taking over Delta’s old L concourse. New cities include Beijing, Vancouver, and Calgary internationally and Allentown, Anchorage, Charleston/WV, Dayton, Fargo, Harrisburg, Honolulu, Jacksonville, Lexington, Rapid City, Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, and Sioux Falls.

Nearly every one of these cities (with the exception of Anchorage and Rapid City) is served nonstop by United today. So United, watch out. American is gunning for you again. Anchorage is served by Alaska, and they seem to be moving closer to Delta, so this isn’t a huge surprise to see American distance itself further.

O’Hare will actually lose 11 daily mainline flights, but it will gain 41 small regional jet flights and 27 CRJ-700 flights. The CRJ-700 fleet will now be focused on O’Hare. American will order more of them for Eagle, and they will be getting First Class onboard. This is clearly meant to offer a more competitive product to United’s 70 seat jets with First Class.

Dallas/Ft Worth – Shuffling in Place – Dallas actually doesn’t see much of a route change here except for the addition of flights to San Salvador. The bigger change is around shuffling aircraft. Dallas will have 19 net new flights. Twenty three of those will be on small regional jets, five will be on props, and 17 will be on mainline jets. So how do we get to only 19? Well, 26 daily CRJ-700 flights will disappear as they refocus that plane in Chicago to compete with United.

Miami – Small Boost – New flights from Miami to a few cities in the Bahamas, Knoxville, and Charleston/SC have already been announced, so the only new cities to come online in this announcement will be Birmingham and Pensacola. There will be a net increase of 23 daily flights with 5 mainline jets, 10 small regional jets, and 8 props. Miami has seen a lot of shifting lately with the retirement of the A300s, so this is just more settling, I think.

New York/JFK – Hub It Up – I had never actually heard American call JFK a hub, but now it looks like they’re ready to do so. Does this mean they’re going to take on Delta for supremacy? Not exactly. The only changes so far involve adding 7 daily flights to Austin, Columbus, and St Louis domestically with Madrid, Manchester/UK, and San Jose/CR internationally. The Madrid and Manchester flights are in anticipation of the strengthening of the alliance with British Airways and Iberia. St Louis is just connecting the dots since it only goes to LaGuardia today.

Los Angeles – Not Much – LAX gets 1 new mainline flight, 1 new regional jet flight, and no new destinations. Pfffft.

Other Random Changes – There are also a couple other random changes as they try to reshape the network. Raleigh/Durham will lose St Louis (duh) along with Hartford and Columbus. Boston, meanwhile, will lose flights to Columbus and San Diego. San Juan will gain flights to Nevis, the little island paradise.

Whew, that’s a lot of changing. So far, I like what I see here. We knew the St Louis hub was in trouble as it continued to shrink, and really, this is the end of the TWA legacy from the acquisition. (TWA will still live on via the old London/Heathrow route authorities, I suppose.)

Getting more CRJ-700s and putting First Class on them is a big move as well. It’s clear that United is a big focus here. The death of St Louis has caused American to look at building its hubs up into stronger entities. I think that’s a smart move. American looks like it’s ready to fight, and now that they’ve raised a bunch of new cash, they’re well-positioned to do just that.

US Airways announced this morning that they will be rolling out a nicer, more attractive version of the business class seat that was rumored to be coming back in June. Let’s be honest. You don’t think of luxury product innovation when you think of US Airways, but they appear to have really come through on this one.

The new seat is called the Envoy Suite, and it will first go on the A330-200s that just started coming into the fleet recently. This makes sense because those are the ones deployed on the longest-haul flights to places like Tel Aviv and, eventually, Tokyo. By Fall of 2010, the existing A330-200s will be refitted with the new seat, designed by SICMA, and all future deliveries will have it as well.

New US Airways Business Class Seat

The seat itself is in a reverse herringbone style with a 1-2-1 layout. So instead of your back against the wall looking toward the aisle like in a herringbone, your back is against the aisle looking toward the window or middle. So if you’re sitting in the window, it provides a fantastic view. If you’re sitting in the middle (what you see in the photo above), there still seems to be enough blocking so that you don’t have to deal with the person next to you.

Now that picture above doesn’t look completely flat to me, but according to US Airways, the seat will go down into a 6’4″ or 6’8″ 180 degree flat bed depending upon which seat you have in the cabin. The seat width is 20.5″ with the armrests up, but when they go down, the width is 25″ for sleeping.

I asked about storage since that is a big problem with many business class seats, and this one doesn’t look much better. There is a bunch of room under the ottoman when you’re in flight, but I believe that won’t be allowed to be used during takeoff and landing. So you’ll need your bin space on this one. I have confirmed that storage underneath the seat will be allowed during takeoff and landing. That’s great.

I was particularly interested in the weight of this seat. My understanding is that the herringbone design is very heavy, because it requires pallets to be secured properly. I have been told, however, that this seat does not require pallets and will only weigh 20 to 30 pounds more than the existing seat.

There are also all the standard amenities. Yes, there is a 110V power outlet, a USB port, and a 12.1″ screen with audio/video on demand. Sounds very good, so why is US Airways doing this? Good question. They’re going to have to lose seats on this plane, because the reverse herringbone takes up more space than the current seats. My guess is that if you think about US Airways and their traffic mix, this may actually make sense.

How many of those business class seats is US Airways selling today? My guess is that there are an overwhelming number of upgrades there. So even though there will be fewer seats going forward, they will probably be able to sell them since they are now competitive on the world stage. That’s really the only reason I can imagine that this would make sense for US Airways to do.

When will we get to see this on the rest of the international fleet? Well you’ll never see it on the 767s. Those will be retired soon enough. The A330-300s, however, will get a new seat but not exactly this one. Apparently it doesn’t quite fit perfectly on the A330 so some tweaking will be required. Once they figure that out, they’ll announce it.

It’s a very big step forward for US Airways, and it should certainly make flying the airline internationally a much nicer experience.

See a video and interactive demo on the new seat

Edited 9/18 @ 327p to change info about storage space

United fliers will now be able to purchase elite status on a flight-by-flight basis. Is this a smart move? While I can see the merits of both sides, I find myself scratching my head here. This seems like a gamble that could backfire.

There are now two packages you can buy for your flight. Premier Travel includes:

  • Economy Plus seat
  • Priority boarding in group 1
  • Elite security line access where offered
  • Elite check-in line access
  • Bonus miles (25% of your actual miles)
  • Two free checked bags

If you get Premier Travel Plus, you get all that plus access to the Red Carpet Club and double bonus miles (instead of just a 25% bonus). With Premier Travel Plus, United also guarantees that all employees will be friendly and helpful. (Or not – but that would be worth it, no?)

So what’s really new here? Absolutely nothing. They’ve just created bundles to offer discounts when you buy a bunch of their Travel Options. You can already buy every single one of these things individually.

Anyone Can Get United Elite Benefits

How much does this all cost? It’s variable, as you’d expect. According to United, here are some sample prices (Premier Travel first, then Premier Travel Plus):

  • DC – New York: $47/$84
  • Los Angeles – San Francisco: $56/$95
  • Chicago – London: $158/$285
  • San Francisco – Tokyo: $167/$298

Since I don’t have any active United itineraries, I can’t really compare these prices to the a la carte pricing on a specific itinerary, but they say you can save up to 50%.

So what do I like about this? They should probably be able to increase sales of these options by making the whole bundle more affordable. It will probably also encourage those people who currently buy individual products to buy up to a higher level. More money is good for the airline, but . . . .

There’s one really bad thing about this. From a Mileage Plus perspective, I think they’re playing with fire. They’re diluting the value of having elite status, and that could cause defection.

What does an elite member get that someone who buys this won’t get? Well, if you’re a Premier member (the lowest status you can earn), you don’t get much at all. Theoretically, you have the ability to buy upgrades, but I don’t think Premiers have much luck getting those these days with all the full flights. Otherwise, Premier Travel is effectively buying Premier status for the day. Premier Travel Plus gives you even more than that.

The Premier Executive and 1K tiers (along with Global Services) will still have more benefits above and beyond this program, so they probably aren’t in danger of feeling alienated, but the Premier members might think twice.

Look at it this way. Let’s say I’m a customer in the LA area who flies enough to qualify for the lowest rung of elite status every year. (Actually, that IS me, but I spread out my flying so I usually won’t qualify.) Let’s say that I’ve concentrated most of my flying with United except for my trips to Dallas which have a better schedule on American. I hate when I have to check-in, board, etc with the riff-raff on other airlines, but American’s schedule makes it worthwhile.

But now, I might think twice about that. First of all, anyone can now buy elite status so it’s not really very exclusive anymore. There’s a reason that people call it having “status” in these programs. Now that anyone can walk in off the street and buy it, it’s not as attractive so I might go somewhere where I will feel more valued.

More importantly, I may look around at other options. American serves most of the same cities that United serves from LA (at least those where I’d want to go), so now I might think about switching to American. That way, I can earn my status on American and feel exclusive. But when I need to go to a city where only United flies, I can just buy elite status for the flight and get the same perks I had before.

How likely is this to happen? I’m not sure, but I do know that it’s a big risk to alienate your frequent fliers without having something else to attract them. (Let’s again assume that these are our most valued customers even though we all know that may not be the case.) Something needs to be done to the Premier level so that there is value in it once again for travelers. Otherwise, United might see them start to defect. I’m sure United is banking on wooing frequent fliers from other programs who might try United and want elite status, but that’s a big gamble.

I know these options were available individually before, and I balked at some of them then as well. This just makes it even worse by flaunting the fact that for a relatively inexpensive amount, you can buy elite status and travel just like everyone else who had to work for it.

I thought I’d continue the international flavor this week with a post on one of the biggest air travel market openings in ages. Last summer, relations thawed enough for China and Taiwan to allow a very limited number of direct flights between the two with the promise of more to come. On August 31, the real flood began as the first regularly scheduled (non-charter) flights started between the two countries. It’s not often that we see a huge market open up like this, so it’s certainly fun to watch.

Up until the 31st of August, there were 108 weekly roundtrip charter flights permitted between China and Taiwan. China Taiwan Flights Good, Missiles BadEverything else had to go through a third location, usually Hong Kong. On August 31, that number ballooned to 270, and for the first time, they can now be operated as regularly scheduled flights.

The incredible size of this market is hard to grasp. Though Taiwan may seem like a small island, there are nearly 23 million people living on it, and most of them have strong ties to China and its 1.3 billion people. So on one side, we have an island with a population larger than the entire state of New York and on the other side, we have a country four times larger than the US. On August 31, there were 44 flights that operated, but as you can imagine there is going to be room for a lot more in the years to come. Hopefully further liberalization will happen.

Sixteen airlines were given permission to fly between China and Taiwan. Sixteen?!? That’s just unreal. And more than 20 cities in China will have service to Taiwan.

Air China will have 27 weekly roundtrips and they’ll fly from Taipei to Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Chongqing, Hangzhou and Tianjian. Meanwhile, EVA Air and UNI Air will fly 55 weekly roundtrips between three Taiwanese airports and Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Kunming, Xiamen, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Dalian, Ningbo, Chengdu and Qingdao, Wuhan, and Chongqing. This is just unreal that this is all happening overnight.

Like I said, we don’t see this every day. The next time we can expect to see something close is probably when Cuba finally opens up for travel to the US. The populations are certainly smaller, but the propensity to fly is likely greater.

Japan Air Lines (JAL) is an airline in trouble. It’s losing money faster than a rookie NFL player who just got his first payday, and it needs help. Now, Delta and American apparently have decided to battle over the airline because of its strategic importance.

You oneworld loyalists out there know that Japan Air Lines is a valuable partner over the North Pacific. Southeast Asia is well-covered by Cathay Pacific, but JAL provides an important link in the north between American, Delta, Air France Pursue JALthe US and Japan, and possibly more importantly, China. JAL holds a ton of slots at Tokyo’s Narita and Haneda airports, and those are scarce at desirable flight times. JAL is a natural fit for the alliance.

So when reports started surfacing last week that Delta was looking at pouring money into the bottomless sinkhole that is JAL, a lot of people were scratching their heads. I didn’t – this makes a lot of sense.

Remember, Delta inherited its Tokyo hub from Northwest, and it actually has a decent intra-Asian operation from Tokyo – a legacy from the end of World War II. As they say, to the winner go the spoils. There’s even a subfleet of narrowbodies based in Tokyo to fly some these routes.

My guess is that these routes absolutely suck wind right now. If Delta is really losing a ton of money as I suspect, they could eliminate all those routes and either use the slots to fly to the US or transfer them to JAL. The additional connectivity in Tokyo that they could gain from this link-up would add a bunch more traffic to feed all that US-Tokyo flying Delta does now. (You people in Portland could breathe a sigh of relief, because this could probably help that flight come off the edge of the cliff.)

This move could make a big, immediate difference on the bottom line. If Delta can pour some money in but get it back out very quickly in the form of improved profits, then it’s a no-brainer. Everyone in SkyTeam wins . . . except for Korean. Poor Korean would be demoted to second place in the North Pacific, and it would likely very seriously look at defecting to oneworld where it could take JAL’s place as top dog in the region (or only dog, as the case may be).

Of course, if JAL leaves, oneworld loses, so American has now come back with its plan to invest in JAL. American is pitching it as a strengthening of its partnership that has been in place for years. The airline would set up a joint venture similar to what we’ve seen over the Atlantic with the likes of United and Lufthansa, KLM and Northwest, etc. In other words, they’d split the revenues on flights between the US and Japan.

All this info is coming from magical “sources” and nothing has been confirmed, so we don’t really know any details about what’s being proposed here. There are also rumors that Air France/KLM is in the running, and that would be good news for Delta. Air France and JAL have actually had a legacy codeshare and frequent flier partnership that crosses alliance boundaries. It has strengthened in recent years, so this would add some more credibility to the Delta bid.

This is all pretty interesting to watch. It’s clear that JAL needs some cash, so it’s in a good place to pick the suitor that’s offering the best deal. It’s nice to be wanted.


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