If Southwest were to move into CVG, would it become more like a Pittsburgh presence with just a handful of flights to key cities – or could Southwest create a mini-hub ala St. Louis?

Southwest is always looking for opportunities, so I have no doubt they’re watching Delta’s pullback in Cincinnati closely. There are, however, some big differences between St Louis and Cincinnati.

Kansas City is the current Southwest station closest to St Louis, and that’s 237 miles away. Meanwhile, from Cincinnati, Southwest serves Louisville 84 miles away, Indianapolis 99 miles away, and Columbus 115 miles away. So it wouldn’t serve as large of a catchment area as St Louis. So I don’t know that we’d see it grow as large as St Louis, but there could be opportunity.

This story would be totally different, had USAirways and Delta became one airline. A Delta-US combination probably would have GROWN CVG because it would have been the only midwest hub, to go along with PHX, SLC, ATL, PHL, and LGA (Charlotte probably would have shrunk or closed, in favor of Atlanta). Las Vegas is already gone as a US hub and probably would have lost out to SLC.

Whether it is Delta or somebody else, and because of Ohio’s population and central location there will always be major hub-like operation for an airline. SW Ohio is the country’s largest 90 minute air market (meaning the highest % of the US population is reachable by air than in any other location) and the fact that Ohio is the 7th most populous state, the numbers add up for serving the market with a hub. Ohio is behind CA, TX, NY, IL, PA, and FL in population, and is also the smallest size of the 7, so think how highly concentrated the population is and the demand for air service.

If Delta had a large fleet of 100 seat RJ’s I can see them being deployed to CVG and making money with a combination of nonstop and connecting paying passengers, and keeping market share in the U.S. one passenger at a time.

Speaking of 100-seat jets and who has them and has ordered more – Jetblue – I can see them establishing a midwest hub soon and growing at other airline’s expense. Jetblue needs to connect some more dots with their west coast and east coast cities and they can’t really do it effciently with JFK and Long Beach hubs.

BNA Flyer wrote:

The airport had profitability problems under Republic and was fixed by NW long ago with former NW people and Pinnacle executives saying it is in fact now profitable and has been for a while.

This is what I’ve heard from Delta/Northwest people as well. The Northwest guys really did a number on this hub – they got it to a place where it actually makes money. I doubt it’ll grow much, but it shouldn’t shrink either unless things begin to change. (That’s always a possibility in this industry.) Cincinnati, on the other hand, hasn’t worked in ages, and the flight cuts make that clear.

BNA Flyer wrote:

Because NW people are now at the helm of Delta outnumbering former DL people loyalty will be the former NW hub that has already been fixed and right sized.

While this may be true, I would hope that wouldn’t be the case. There’s no room for loyalty to a hub here based upon heritage. It may sound cold, but if the hub works, it should be kept. If it doesn’t, it should go away. I would hope that’s the only rationale they use.

BNA Flyer wrote:

MEM former DL ops having been shut to be moved to CVG and DFW per above article and ASA website because of comp. in MEM makes it logical now to to keep MEM to replace the DFW which no longer exists and CVG which appears to not have worked out for several reasons

That was a long time ago in a completely different industry state. I don’t see the need for MEM for connecting purposes – Atlanta can certainly handle that quite well for most of the routes that MEM serves. Remember, that was AA’s plan for St Louis too but it just didn’t work. If MEM can support the flights with enough local traffic, it makes it a very nice place to connect for passengers and that combines to make it work.

As for Cincinnati, I wouldn’t worry about the city. Delta will at least keep flights to its hubs and that will provide more than enought feed to international destinations. The last hour rule appears to be gone, so that’s not really something to consider for foreign carriers. If Delta retrenches enough, someone will move in, but I don’t know who it might be.

I don’t believe MEM will ever shut down and CVG will for several reasons:
*The airport had profitability problems under Republic and was fixed by NW long ago with former NW people and Pinnacle executives saying it is in fact now profitable and has been for a while.(See commercial appeal online archives for this)
*Because NW people are now at the helm of Delta outnumbering former DL people loyalty will be the former NW hub that has already been fixed and right sized.
*ATL and MEM have coexisted under Delta, Southern, & Republic before. Delta only consolidated because it couldn’t compete with Republic and Republic only consolidated because it couldn’t compete with Delta. They’re now ONE airline with no such competition issues remaining. (See http://www.memphischamber.com/KenticoCMS/Articles/DoBusiness/Flight-Plan.aspx, ASA website, and Google news archives for sources to back up this argument)
*MEM former DL ops having been shut to be moved to CVG and DFW per above article and ASA website because of comp. in MEM makes it logical now to to keep MEM to replace the DFW which no longer exists and CVG which appears to not have worked out for several reasons(high fares, traffic leakage, disenchantment with local fliers, failure to draw traffic away from ORD as originally planned and new alternatives now available that have worked in MSP and DET).
*FedEx makes it incredibly cheap to operate in Memphis
*ATL has had and will continue to have capacity issues over time as DL originally expanded MCO into its first form hub to take off pressure(see Google news archives for source) so MEM will be needed while that isn’t even an issue to consider with DET and MSP to warrant keeping CVG around. Plus, MEM can recapture the southern east-west and midwest traffic lost with DFW to make it less cannibalizing for ATL while CVG just cannibalizes everything(north-south through ATL, before the int’l flights were cut JFK, northern east-west through MSP and DET). Other than connecting two or three cities to the Ohio Valley like Nashville who would otherwise have to fly out of their way, there is no purpose left for CVG and it has clearly failed and died since 9/11).
All that said, I think MEM will stay and CVG will shut and I belive AirTran or SW will come in and fill the void with a reasonably large operation out of Delta’s old T3 gates. I doubt CVG will maintain CDG service if the hub closes and I also doubt that they will easy get another flag carrier to come in and fill the gap as well. I think that Air Canada would be a good filler for the international gap because they could connect people through Canada to Europe and overseas and avoid the new seating one hour before landing on the transatlantic or pacific portions of their flight since it won’t be headed for the U.S.(I realize you’d still have to sit for the last hour from Toronto to CVG but that would be much easier than having to sit for the last hour of your international leg) For now though, CVG fliers should appreciate what they have and do everything they can to show Delta they might at least be able to support a good strong O&D focus city down the road. The CVG hub is still comparable to what AA used to have here in Nashville and I always considered myself pretty luckly(still do with SW and DL down the road).

Would love to hear your responses and comments on this. I think it’s a pretty good case that most people overlook.

2. Delta is not going to close a DL hub and displace its own people, it’s going to close the NW hub.

3. Don’t give me this Ohio rust belt bull. Cincinnati has a WAY better economy then Memphis

Does anybody wonder where Delta is going to get the RJ’s for the beefed up service at LGA next year? With the 125 slots coming from USAirways Delta has promised to replace turbo-prop flights with larger jets and bring service to new destinations as well. Is this a prelude to dismantling the CVG hub ala AA at St. Louis?

Well, a third of those can come from the National slots that Delta will give to US Airways as part of the deal. The remaining ones? It could come from Cincinnati, but Delta has plenty of excess capacity all around its system. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it come from everywhere.