Comments on: How Will NextGen Improve Your Life?

By: CF

CF — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 19:39:12 +0000

atomsareenough – You’re right – it IS wishful thinking! Certainly all aircraft flying into the airport would need to be equipped with RNP capabilities for this to work at the very least, so it’s not going to happen soon. (The benefits in Cusco, however, could be realized if only one aircraft has it.)

Thanks for adding a little color around what else would be necessary.

By: atomsareenough

atomsareenough — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 17:51:34 +0000

CF – I know you weren’t making any overt claims, but even your “just imagine” scenario seems like wishful thinking if you are just talking about RNP. I don’t think you can get to the point where SFO operates at full capacity on foggy days least until there is full implementation of other technologies as well, like perhaps a full ADS-B system and cockpit traffic displays (something like CDTI), which can enable pilots to “see” other aircraft with enough accuracy built into them to really reduce separation minimums.

By: David Stone

David Stone — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 06:00:06 +0000

The Global Traveller is right on in his comments about Queenstown, and the role of Air New Zealand. The airline was also the first foreign carrier and second carrier overall (following Alaska Airlines) to use advanced technology approaching SFO, including “tailored approach” at SFO and LAX. Air NZ is also planning to use RNP to improve traffic efficiency at the three main NZ airports, AKL, WGN and CHC.

By: CF

CF — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 23:31:32 +0000

atomsareenough – I was purposefully ambiguous when I was talking about SFO, because I wasn’t quite sure what exactly would be necessary to make it a reality. That’s why I said, “Just imagine if SFO could actually operate at normal capacity during foggy days thanks to more precise approaches. Delays would disappear from the airport.”

More precise approaches combined with policy changes should allow for it to be a reality, but I don’t know exactly what technology is required for the FAA to decide that it would be safe. Do you know?

By: atomsareenough

atomsareenough — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 22:34:07 +0000

CF, I think you’re overstating the possible benefits of RNP, particularly regarding delay reduction at SFO. While it will help increase arrival rates/reduce delays during low ceiling/visibility conditions, I don’t think that by itself RNP is going to come close to maintaining normal VFR capacity in poor weather. Maybe that can happen in the long term when RNP will be used in combination with other nextgen technologies, but I think that to say “delays would disappear from the airport” just because of RNP sounds a little pie-in-the-sky.

By: CF

CF — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 21:03:19 +0000

MathFox – These are all the procedures that they’ll need to fully develop, I imagine. But I would expect that if RNP isn’t functioning for one reason or another, they’ll revert to a backup system, just as they do today if the ILS is down for some reason at an airport. And if that backup system doesn’t allow for such precise approaches, then they’ll likely have to divert.

Optimist – Nothing can address problems with microbursts, windshear, etc. If those are around, no amount of technology will make them safe to fly through. You just have to wait for them to go away or, if it’s not right over the airport, go around them. But NextGen systems should make it easier for aircraft to fly around weather if it enables free flight. Then airplanes would have more latitude to go as they please.

Of course, the biggest constraint is the runway at the airport. There are only so many planes you can land on each runway in a given period of time. At SFO, bad weather now reduces that number significantly so NextGen can help relieve that. But at many airports, the gains will still be only slightly incremental, and the only solution will be more runways.

By: The Global Traveller

The Global Traveller — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 20:51:01 +0000

Queenstown in NZ has had RNP equipment for a while now. It too is an airport in a narrow mountain basin with a twisting approach over mountain pass and hills.

RNP has had a huge effect – Air New Zealand has RNP on enough aircraft that it has a decent ontime performance (though still not as good as airports out of the mountains – even RNP can’t help if the airport is clouded in badly or snowed in). Whereas Qantas did not have RNP on their domestic aircraft and had a terrible cancellation rate and ontime performance. One winter I analysed their stats and it was about a third cancelled flights and a significant number not cancelled but diverted – if you actually landed at Queenstown you were lucky.

By: The Traveling Optimist

The Traveling Optimist — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 18:10:50 +0000

The assumption is that NextGen will allow airlines to operate their current schedules closer to normal in adverse visibility situations. It does not appear to address wind shear, micro-bursts or lightning on the field and therefore does not serve as a fix-all for every kind of weather.

Secondly, another assumption is that airlines will continue to operate current schedules with NextGen navigation installed. Doubtful.

If NextGen increases operational efficiency at key airports I see many a scheduler drooling at greater fleet optimization opportunities by increasing flying at those locations. That will push NextGen to its limits, elicit screams of false advertising from the airlines who increased their lift and cries of foul from customers who will feel nothing has changed at all except the increase in competition for the overnight cots.

Bottom line seems to be that NextGen needs to be carefully positioned in the public’s mind for what it can do and what it can do nothing about. Otherwise it will be seen as a false prophet intended to fix delays but leaves masses of people cooling their heels because of a rainy night in Georgia.

Or am I wrong?

By: David SFeastbay

David SFeastbay — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 16:14:13 +0000

Amazing how submarines can travel underwater anywhere in the world using ‘machines’ as eyes, but airplanes haven’t mastered landing in any weather condition without having to slow down using human eyes. When the computer hit the cockpit, this area should have seen a turn around sooner.

By: MathFox

MathFox — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 15:53:21 +0000

Yes, I am sure that RNP will work great when all equipment works as expected… but what happens when equipment fails? Should (under NextGen) a plane divert to the nearest airport when its RNP (or transponder) is out of order? What impact will that have on delays?